1/ #FATF plenary begins today. Final decision to be announced on Feb 25. Till now, #Pakistan compliant/largely compliant on 21 out of 27 actions

Plenary WON’T decide on Pakistan getting of #GreyList. At best, it would approve an on-site visit to happen before June.
2/ I wish Pakistan best of luck in FATF

Pak shown remarkable progress. Very close to meeting all 27 actions. Progress will be acknowledged but less chance to approve on-site visit (I hope I’m wrong)

In June, Pakistan likely to get approval for visit & removal from GL in Oct
3/ View from an objective 3rd party “Pakistan unbelievably close to #FATF finish line. But remaining items are core of the process (how Pak prosecutes ML in connection with terrorism)”

But few caveats related to parallel regular evaluation process for ML. More details later
4/ However, unlike last time, Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts were not as robust & mostly last minute. One reason could be that they didn’t want to go to friends, before achieving progress on key FATF actions. GoP arranged bilateral meetings with a few missions around 8-9th Feb
5/ Pakistan's unaddressed FATF action areas from last time

Demonstrate
-Authorities identifying & investigating widest range of TF activities
-TF investigations & prosecutions target designated persons/entities
6/ Pakistan's unaddressed FATF action areas from last time

Demonstrate
-TF prosecutions successfully result in effective/ proportionate/dissuasive sanctions
-Effective implementation of sanctions against assets of DPs/entities in accordance with UNSC Res 1267 & 1373
7/ Pakistan's unaddressed FATF action areas from last time

Demonstrate:
-Enforcement against violations with obligations deriving from UNSC regulations 1267 & 1373
-Authorities applying focused & proportionate measures to persons/entities identified as vulnerable to TF abuse
8/ But getting out of the grey list doesn’t end this journey for Pakistan. The regular evaluation process for money laundering is on the horizon already. Pakistan will have to deal with both the #FATF as well as the new evaluation process. There could be a few options
9/ Option 1: Deal separately- Finish FATF process. Get off grey list. Celebrate & then deal with other evaluation process

Option 2: Merge two processes (especially if delay in getting off grey list)

Option 1 preferable for Pakistan, provided we get on-site visit approval now
10/ Now regular evaluation process for money laundering

FATF updated consolidated assessment ratings on 18th Feb 2021

Countries assessed against 11 immediate outcomes (IOs) for effectiveness & 40 recommendations for tech compliance

Pak rating based on Oct 19 MER & Sep 20 FUR
11/ Money Laundering Assessment: On 11 IOs, #Pakistan has low effectiveness on 10 and moderate on 1.

No area with substantial or high effectiveness.

On 40 recommendations:
4 non-compliant
25 partially compliant
9 largely compliant
2 compliant
12/ Pakistan’s 4 non-compliant areas in Sep 20 (many improved by now)
R22: No enforceable means for DNFBP non-compliance
R25: No requirement for beneficial ownership info for trusts
R28: No designated supervisors for DNFBPs
R38: Absence of mutual legal assistance framework /END

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More from @hasaankhawar

9 Feb
1/ Unpacking the new #CPEC Authority law (draft)

What is it about?
What's different from the last ordinance?
Is it controversial?
What powers does the CPEC Authority have?

Pls read my piece in today's @etribune and also see this thread

#BRI

tribune.com.pk/story/2283157/…
2/ Background:

CPEC Authority was created through an ordinance in 2019 that expired last year

CPEC Authority Bill 2020 recently passed by the National Assembly and has yet to get the Senate’s approval

The new law is a definite improvement over the previous ordinance.
3/ Rumours:

Nikkie Asia: Pak Army to get sweeping powers under CPEC Authority law

South Asia Monitor: Authority’s chairman/officials have immunity from investigations by NAB/FIA

Others: JCC to be headed by CPEC Authority chairman & not Planning Minister

None of this is true
Read 14 tweets
30 Jun 20
1/ How long can a government pension run in Pakistan?

Possibly 100+ years. Read on..

A govt servant qualifies for pension after 25 yrs of service. It continues till his death and is then converted to family pension for the heirs.

What’s next?

tribune.com.pk/story/2252564/…
2/ Family pension goes to pensioner's widow

After widow's death, to surviving sons (under 24) or unmarried/eldest widowed daughter or eldest widow of pensioner's deceased son

After 2nd generation, it goes to eldest son/unmarried/ widowed daughter of pensioner's deceased son
3/ It’s possible, though not likely, that employees in service of Government of India during 1st World War would have a family pension running even today.

Believe it or not, our govt pension rules can accommodate such a scenario.
Read 9 tweets
22 Apr 20
1/ Pay & Pension Commission 2020 formed recently - Let's get to bottom of it

If you have any interest in civil service reforms, public sector reforms or even financial sustainability of Pakistan, I would request to you go through this thread and participate in the debate ImageImageImage
2/ It’s the umpteenth commission

1948: Justice Munir Commission
1959: Cornelius Commission
1970: National Pay Commission
2009: Ishrat Hussain Pay Commission

Plus many other committees (Even I was a member of one)

By now we know everything this is to know.

Why another one?
3/ 2009 Commission recommendations

1 All ad hoc relief allowances granted since 1999 to be regularised
2 No of pay scales to be reduced from 22 to 14: 5 for officers & 9 for other grades
3 Pay scales to be raised by 50% in phases
4 Perks be monetised

No structural change
Read 14 tweets
29 Mar 20
1/ It seems that after taking time to mobilize, both the federal & provincial governments now catching up on their fight against #CoronaVirus

If we keep this momentum, we may be able to flatten the curve and not face a situation like USA and Europe.

Long Live Pakistan!
2/ Here are the measures that are being taken:

- Virtual lockdown across the country
- NDMA ordered 679 ventilators (400 will arrive in 2 weeks)
- 125-150 ventilators from friendly countries also expected
- 182 quarantine facilities established
3/ .. ongoing measurs (..contd)

- Quarantine facilities including those in containers established at borders – Chaman, Taftan, Landi Kotal,Jamrud
- Army & police jointly managing points of entry & helping in contact tracing
- Provincial govts announcing their relief packages
Read 5 tweets
2 Jul 19
1/ Pakistan's Puzzling Politiconomics

PTI advancing the narrative that Pakistan’s economy is in a deep mess, blaming Dar

PML-N equally vocal in projecting Dar as the messiah for successfully sustaining $-PKR rate

Both sides cherry-picking data

But what's the reality?
2/ Two distinct patterns characterise Dar’s era as Finance Minister:

An expansionary fiscal policy focusing on infrastructure and consumption-led growth; and

An actively managed foreign exchange policy
3/ Expansionary fiscal policies aren't bad if financed wisely & lead to increased public investment

Therefore, nothing wrong with PML-N’s appetite for infrastructure

Increased government spending led to increased demand & growth

But besides assets, govt’s expenditure also rose
Read 11 tweets

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