Go read this ASAP. All of it. Read it again.

Then come back here for my additional thoughts - I'm going to emphasize a few points in a thread.

Whoops, got a little sidetracked. But now that you've had a few minutes to read, I want to add to Perry's fantastic points, primarily on #1: Listen more to Black people.

I haven't been in journalism since April 2017. And I realize now that I was not good at this when I was.
The political analysis (and let's go ahead and include polling in this) field is extremely white, especially here on Twitter/online. And that's really a disadvantage. Perry lays out exactly why. We embraced ignoring Trump's racist language until it seemed okay to call it out.
That shapes how you analyze data, too. If you aren't looking for an effect in your data, you won't find it. Political data analysis STILL often fails to talk about race in the way it should, and the consequence is we aren't telling the whole story.
Part of that is pragmatic - Black Americans are 12ish% of the population, so when you are polling, for example, you need larger sample sizes to get representative samples of Black Americans. That costs money. It's money we need to spend. (and have needed to for a long time)
The other part is that a lot of us doing the analysis and making the decisions are white and not thinking about it. That is not an excuse - it's an indictment. You do NOT have to be Black to consider how Black Americans and their experiences impact politics.
Apply the above to any racial or ethnic group, too. I'm discussing this in terms of Black people, because that is the most obvious place we are failing, but it applies to Hispanic, Asian American, Native American, multiracial, and all people of color.
Anyway - you don't need to be Black to consider the Black political experience. You just need to be willing to see the impact. So many people - because of white supremacy and systemic racism - don't even think about it.
I daresay (from what I see) that applies to many political analysts (not all! but if the shoe fits...)

It manifests in dismissing analysis that shows the impact of Black voters in Georgia (e.g.).

It manifests in overlooking Black analysts who push us to think about race.
It manifests in getting defensive and over-explaining when people challenge why data only seems to represent white people. (A very valid question I got in a public panel on Friday.)
I don't have a great way to wrap up this thread, other than to say that the question I got on Friday reminded me to be intentional in where I place my attention and whose/what analysis I am promoting.
Perry's point #1 here is exactly in line with that and with what I've been thinking about this weekend. I'm glad to see him put this out there, and even more glad to see @FiveThirtyEight publish it. May we all remain humble and get our eyes and analysis opened.
Ah, I came up with my ending here.

Black people knew Americans would vote for someone like Trump. They know we can and might again. They aren't under any pretenses that "we are better than this." They know we're not.

We would be wise to hear that.

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More from @nataliemj10

20 Feb
The kerfluffle of Ted Cruz going to Cancun is a good example of how The Discourse (TM) can be so far removed from what people think. Some anecdotes from my Facebook feed, which is about 50% Texans, many of whom are liberal, but also many of whom are quite conservative:
(No screenshots to protect privacy. I know my IRB rules.)

"I don’t even care that Ted Cruz went to Mexico. I wasn’t sitting in my house waiting for him to come and save me anyway. I was too busy keeping my family warm and fed and livestock alive!"
"Last night, in the hotel, the tv would only work on CNN and that is ALL they talked about! Ridiculous. What do they expect him to do?! Shovel ice and snow or go run a light plant?!"
Read 7 tweets
19 Feb
I can see people running away with this data point from the @BrightLineWatch survey. Asking about secession is incredibly tricky, though. Most people have no clue what it would really mean - because it's never been done.
@BrightLineWatch But of course you will get support for it when you frame it as reducing conflict. The second image shows the question that was asked first - before the regions question. Is anyone surprised that framing turns up a lot of support? (The report acknowledges this, btw)
@BrightLineWatch But once you release a number, you lose control of context and narrative, so it's entirely possible we will see a bunch of headlines about support for secession.

Be very wary of those. Opinion on secession does not reflect an informed position on what it would really look like.
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
There is a very real discussion to be had about what caused the current situation in Texas. It developed over a long period of time.

That said, I have zero patience for anyone saying/implying it's what they deserve for how they voted. Texas is a 55-45 state, so a) that's false.
b) Find some damn empathy for people. You are supposed to care about people no matter what, right? Then care.

c) People who are suffering are not the ones who made decisions. Cold doesn't care how you voted.
To share a few things I'm seeing from my facebook connections:

-Melting snow to use to flush toilets, wash hair, sponge baths, etc
-Boiling water for drinking
-Huddling in single rooms with all the blankets to be found
-Using vehicles to warm up when it gets unbearable
Read 5 tweets
12 Feb
I'm also a little squeamish about basing incredibly impactful policy recommendations on an analysis of 2200 opt-in survey takers.

Govt surveys for this type of analysis are way more robust than that on sample & methods.

As for the economics of it, I have no expertise there - listen to @zachdcarter on that part.
Also, to be clear, I would be squeamish about it even with different methods because of recent questions re: sample construction.

Surveys are powerful tools. But there's really a limit - IMO, economic studies should require more precision than avg surveys can do.
Read 4 tweets
7 Feb
There's this whole genre of pandemic articles and publications that seem designed to make women feel bad about themselves more than ever.

Like, if beauty products and processes are your thing, you do you - great!

But leave those of us who aren't into that alone.
It's one thing for someone to say "I miss getting x done." It's another for a media outlet to publish an article about how women are dying to get x done and look awful without it.

Or that plastic surgery is up because women are having to look at themselves in zoom(!)
Clearly we are losing the battle against fake and unattainable beauty standards. Even worse, if you're a woman who does anything in public at all, you are likely to find some corner of the internet where someone is criticizing how you look, your weight, your nose, your hair...
Read 7 tweets
29 Jan
If you're gonna critique public issue polling, maybe talk to people who actually do public issue polling.

Media/social/etc has a big problem with listening to people who don't actually do the thing in question.
In most cases, I think you'll actually find that we're aware of and willing to discuss weaknesses.

But never believe people who just assert that "the polls are wrong" without offering you any alternative data. Especially if they don't do the thing in question.
Also, if you can't grasp the difference between a referendum (that has been campaigned on and subject to voting population) and a poll of all Americans, I really can't help you.

We can quibble over which is more useful/actionable, but the idea that one is wrong is incorrect.
Read 4 tweets

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