1/21 Full preprint of Pub Hlth Scotland’s C19 vax analysis, “1st natl pop. level study,” claiming 85-94% ↓ in C19 hospitalizations, relative to unvaccinated controls, 4wks after single dose of Pfizer or AZ vaxes ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/fi…

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More from @andrewbostom

21 Feb
1/ Implications for C19? Human coronavirus OC43, now circulating as a seasonal (winter) common-cold virus, but still capable of serious morbidity/mortality among the institutionalized elderly, emerged (from cattle) in 1889-90 & may have caused the “Russian flu” pandemic
2/ 2005 paper on ~1890 origins of OC43 & possible link to “Russian flu” epidemic ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3/ 2019 paper on HCov OC43’s (primarily winter) seasonality ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 5 tweets
20 Feb
1/ Instead of fearmongering about C19 "variants": We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April. Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news
2/ Dr. Makery:"Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little COVID-19 by April but suggested that I not talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine."
3/ "But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation."
Read 4 tweets
18 Feb
1/ Viral seasonality circa 1980 (h/t @carlheneghan) “The incidence of respiratory virus infections varies with the season. In temperate climates the rate increases as the cooler autumn weather develops and declines again as spring passes into summer”
2/Isolation/De-Isolation Effects: “Only extreme physical isolation seems to restrict circulation of these organisms; the inhabitants of Tristan da Cunha, apparently very little exposed to respiratory viruses, suffered badly from this type of infection when evacuated to Britain”
3/ On testing/causality: “The presence of a virus in a patient's throat does not prove that it is the cause of the illness”
Read 4 tweets
16 Feb
1/ Discussion 2/16/21 w/@wpro ’s #MattAllen debunking the panic porn about “C19 variants” sharing hard data showing NO increased mortality from the U.K., Belgium, Switzerland, & the U.S. spreaker.com/user/wpro/2-16…
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
1/ More UK C19 “variant” panic porn DEBUNKED by the actual updated PRELIMINARY data: Absolute C19 mortality risk “differences” vs. earlier strains range from ZERO (0.17% v. 0.17%), to 0.02%↑ (0.07% v. 0.09%), to 0.10%↑ (0.10% v. 0.20%) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2/ Once these minute absolute risk differences are understood, much less important (albeit potentially more panic inducing) “relative risk” estimates vs. earlier strains range from 0.63 (37%↓) to 1.91 (91%↑), to 1.00 (equal or 0%↑)
3/ 3/ The U.K. govt summary of these pooled U.K. reports CAUTIONS about “the representativeness” of these data (i.e., potential lack thereof), & CONCLUDES “absolute risk of DEATH PER infection remains low”
Read 4 tweets
14 Feb
1/ Randomized (open label) controlled study of oral calcifediol (25OH-vit. D; total 1330 µg) in 930 hospitalized C19 pts (551 treated; 379 untreated) reduced ICU admissions by 82% (30/551 treated v. 80/379 untreated), and mortality by 64% (36/551 treated v. 57/379 untreated)
2/ Randomized Groups, Key Methods, & Study Ref papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
3/ Structure of Calcifediol vs. Calcitriol (“active” Vit. D)
Read 4 tweets

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