πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Morning Update
1,058 new cases
Rt = 1.01
2.6% wkly positivity (31K tests)
11 deaths
556KπŸ’‰ (up 16,404)
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27
I adjusted the loess parameter to detect more short-term trending. That trend has turned.
Positivity has levelled at 2.6%.
Rt and Speed signals point to flat or rising infections.
School-related new cases. Rising but still relatively small numbers, potentially due to undertesting of this segment.
Synopsis: Indicators are identifying a pause in the downward trends created by the stay at home measures and possibly the start of rising infections (still too early to be sure). I have replaced the confirmed variant count with the latest % of cases screened as presumed variants.
(Note: Low testing today (31K) and expected lower testing on Tuesday are typical and mean that cases are likely understated vs avg and that test positivity may be higher.
Also, Sunday and Monday underreport hospitalizations.)
Because last Monday was a holiday and affected weekly regional stats, the regions and demos report will be skipped today. But here are the new cases today.

β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
γ€€

Keep Current with πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Bill Comeau Crush the Curve πŸ“‰

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Bill Comeau Crush the Curve πŸ“‰ Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Billius27

22 Feb
🧡US cases are declining significantly. Should we be surprised? No. New infections arise from this formula for R:
R = D x O x T x S
D = Duration (time infectious)
O = Opportunities (contacts/day)
T = Transmission (probability infect contact)
S = Susceptible (proportion of popn)
2/ One of those factors, S, has been changing significantly over the past year because the US has had many more infections per capita than Canada.
In fact, previously infected are now about 30% of the population. Vaccinated (2 dose) are now ~ 6%.
npr.org/sections/healt…
3/ If we now go back to R = DOTS, we get
R = DOT x (1 - .3 -.06)
If DOT stays about the same, then R drops to 64% of what is was when everyone was susceptible. An original R of 1.25 becomes .8. A "new R" of .8 is going to drive cases down because 100 infections cause 80 new ones.
Read 7 tweets
22 Feb
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Canada Overnight Update
~ vaccines, provinces, regions ~
Canada's weekly case rate is now at 54.7. The week/week decline is down to -5.6%. More ‡️
#Covid19 #cdnpoli
πŸ’‘explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27
Saskatchewan remains highest, now ay 91.
Provincial trends.
Read 6 tweets
21 Feb
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Morning Update
1,087 new cases
Rt = .99
2,6% wkly positivity (flat) (48Ktests)
ONLY 1 LTC DEATH πŸ₯³
540KπŸ’‰ More ‡️
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27
Regions
New cases
Read 7 tweets
21 Feb
🧡Smoothing trends. This mathematical method attempts to understand the underlying trends in daily data and is a little different than 7 day averages. It is detecting "up" signals in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario. More ‡️
Newfoundland's B117 variant outbreak shows how strong upward spikes can be.
Smaller populations like Nunavut cab have more erratic patterns around outbreaks.
Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
UPDATE: Ontario tonight
More ‡️
I'm concerned about the north. I've seen what happened in the northern prairies.
Northwestern is still rising.
Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Canada PHU Update Feb 20
~ provinces, regions ~
Weekly case rate drops to 53.9, down 11.2% from last week. The rate of decline is slowing.
#Covid19 #cdnpoli
πŸ’‘explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27
Canada's administered doses hit a daily record of 47,707 as supply expands.
Weekly shipments are expected to remain high and continue ramping up. The target remains 6 million doses by the end of March.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!