I adjusted the loess parameter to detect more short-term trending. That trend has turned.
Positivity has levelled at 2.6%.
Rt and Speed signals point to flat or rising infections.
School-related new cases. Rising but still relatively small numbers, potentially due to undertesting of this segment.
Synopsis: Indicators are identifying a pause in the downward trends created by the stay at home measures and possibly the start of rising infections (still too early to be sure). I have replaced the confirmed variant count with the latest % of cases screened as presumed variants.
(Note: Low testing today (31K) and expected lower testing on Tuesday are typical and mean that cases are likely understated vs avg and that test positivity may be higher.
Also, Sunday and Monday underreport hospitalizations.)
Because last Monday was a holiday and affected weekly regional stats, the regions and demos report will be skipped today. But here are the new cases today.
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π§΅US cases are declining significantly. Should we be surprised? No. New infections arise from this formula for R:
R = D x O x T x S
D = Duration (time infectious)
O = Opportunities (contacts/day)
T = Transmission (probability infect contact)
S = Susceptible (proportion of popn)
2/ One of those factors, S, has been changing significantly over the past year because the US has had many more infections per capita than Canada.
In fact, previously infected are now about 30% of the population. Vaccinated (2 dose) are now ~ 6%. npr.org/sections/healtβ¦
3/ If we now go back to R = DOTS, we get
R = DOT x (1 - .3 -.06)
If DOT stays about the same, then R drops to 64% of what is was when everyone was susceptible. An original R of 1.25 becomes .8. A "new R" of .8 is going to drive cases down because 100 infections cause 80 new ones.
π§΅π¦ π Canada Overnight Update
~ vaccines, provinces, regions ~
Canada's weekly case rate is now at 54.7. The week/week decline is down to -5.6%. More β€΅οΈ #Covid19#cdnpoli
π‘explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27
π§΅π¦ π Ontario Morning Update
1,087 new cases
Rt = .99
2,6% wkly positivity (flat) (48Ktests)
ONLY 1 LTC DEATH π₯³
540Kπ More β€΅οΈ #Covid19#Covid19Ontario#onhealth#onpoli
π‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27
π§΅Smoothing trends. This mathematical method attempts to understand the underlying trends in daily data and is a little different than 7 day averages. It is detecting "up" signals in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario. More ‡οΈ
Newfoundland's B117 variant outbreak shows how strong upward spikes can be.
Smaller populations like Nunavut cab have more erratic patterns around outbreaks.
π§΅π¦ π Canada PHU Update Feb 20
~ provinces, regions ~
Weekly case rate drops to 53.9, down 11.2% from last week. The rate of decline is slowing. #Covid19#cdnpoli
π‘explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27
Canada's administered doses hit a daily record of 47,707 as supply expands.
Weekly shipments are expected to remain high and continue ramping up. The target remains 6 million doses by the end of March.