Thread by @Billius27

🧵🦠📈 Ontario Morning Update
1,058 new cases
Rt = 1.01
2.6% wkly positivity (31K tests)
11 deaths
556K💉 (up 16,404)
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
💡find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27

I adjusted the loess parameter to detect more short-term trending. That trend has turned.

Positivity has levelled at 2.6%.

Rt and Speed signals point to flat or rising infections.

School-related new cases. Rising but still relatively small numbers, potentially due to undertesting of this segment.

Synopsis: Indicators are identifying a pause in the downward trends created by the stay at home measures and possibly the start of rising infections (still too early to be sure). I have replaced the confirmed variant count with the latest % of cases screened as presumed variants.

(Note: Low testing today (31K) and expected lower testing on Tuesday are typical and mean that cases are likely understated vs avg and that test positivity may be higher.
Also, Sunday and Monday underreport hospitalizations.)

Because last Monday was a holiday and affected weekly regional stats, the regions and demos report will be skipped today. But here are the new cases today.