Latish stage bull markets have a lot of volatility. Once everyone has confidence in the trend with the asset grinding higher every week, people look to take advantage of the "easy money" with more leverage. That leverage produces more aggressive wash outs. Bottom of the 7th.
2/ the volatility takes the form we just saw - mostly violent liquidations followed by quick recoveries (with a few deeper/longer retracements to keep everyone guessing.)
3/ these moves are tough to take advantage of. You can use trailing limit buy orders to catch these wicks, but that requires identifying local tops to sell. Definitely profitable for active traders, but imo, not worth doing if you're not trading near full time.
For people asking about my "bottom of the 7th" comment, I count the bull market from the ~$3k December 2018 low. Still a long way to go in both time and price until the end, imho.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Ari Paul ⛓️

Ari Paul ⛓️ Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AriDavidPaul

24 Feb
In 2016-2017, there was a lot of discussion of interoperability. Projects like Polkadot and Cosmos ICO'ed. We had atomic swaps demonstrated live on decred, litecoin, and bitcoin. Lots of debate over where value would accrue once assets could be seamlessly moved across chains /1
2/ Today, we're stilling waiting on the full launches of the biggest interoperability projects (both Cosmos and Polkadot appear imminent, but will likely take some time to roll out in usable form). Interoperability today is primarily in centralized form w/custodial wrapping.
3/ There's $6b of wrapped bitcoin on ethereum, and several projects working on various decentralized wrapping models. In a few years, we'll likely have relatively seamless access to most prominent assets across most of the big platforms. So, where will value accrue?
Read 7 tweets
23 Feb
High level market observations: there was euphoric sentiment (laser eyes) and massive leverage (peak funding rates) with BTC > $55k. This sell-off washed out much of the short-term leverage. Crypto investors bought this dip aggressively, little dry powder left.
2/ marginal seller through OTC desks were lenders liquidating collateral, and we had some retail selling as well. IMO - this is a pretty textbook liquidation driven correction in the midst of a bull run. Could it extent to $40k or lower? Maybe. We're waiting -
3/ on institutional flows to keep coming in generically, as well as specifically on the NY AG settlement, and upon seeing at least a tiny hint of value from the dip. If we don't get those flows in the next couple days, crypto investors may get antsy and take some profits.
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
If you're an entrepreneur, what's the *1* thing you have to get right to WIN? Be laser focused on that one thing. Have seen too many entrepreneurs crash and burn getting distracted by shiny objects or trivial operational issues.
2/ for any network effect driven start-up, the key question is "how do we get a lot of users, fast?" Nothing else matters in comparison. If you get that right, you can raise unlimited capital and survive mistakes in every other category.
3/ if you make a list of all the things a company does, almost everything on that list plays a supporting role except one thing. Sure, you need IT infrastructure to do anything, but that's unlikely to make/break you (just look at some of the largest crypto exchanges for example).
Read 6 tweets
22 Feb
@gladstein @joekelly100 @dumbazzzbull @nic__carter @Quillette The actual cost of doing a 51% attack (to indefinitely censor all transactions by mining empty blocks), is likely trivial for some types of actors (will elucidate in next tweet), and there are strong incentives to do so because of the ability to shortsell in increasing size.
@gladstein @joekelly100 @dumbazzzbull @nic__carter @Quillette 2/ the cost of acquiring the hashpower from scratch to perform an attack may well be $10b+ today, but that'd be unnecessary. Hacking/bribery/coercion is far cheaper. The chinese government for example, could easily seize almost all hashpower within its borders at near zero cost.
@gladstein @joekelly100 @dumbazzzbull @nic__carter @Quillette 3/ even at $10b (or $20b)...that's nothing for a $1 trillion asset. If not a state actor, spend $30b over 2 years building new ASIC factors, establish a $200b short position, then profit. No, it's not that this simple. Can't establish a short position that large today,
Read 5 tweets
20 Feb
An insane and amazing thing about the rise of cryptocurrency is the opportunity it gives people (particularly young people with short or absent resumes) the chance to take on senior roles in months instead of decades.
2/ 25 year olds can’t start oil mining companies or be C-suite at them. They similarly can’t (successfully) start or manage traditional hedge funds. But in crypto? Some of the best PMs and founders are <25.
3/ in a new industry and asset class, you don’t have to compete against incumbents with 30 years of relevant experience and ossified networks. And crypto provides near infinite leverage to both entrepreneurs and traders.
Read 5 tweets
18 Feb
It takes different skills/strategy/people to go from 1 to 100 than what it took to go from 0 to 1. Some high level thoughts on crypto VC in this thread /1
2/ A lot of the best "traditional" VCs like USV, Ribbit, and A16z have been investing in cryptocurrency start-ups for 7+ years now, and plenty of great crypto native VCs have built large and talented teams and are flush with capital.
3/ I have nothing but positive things to say about these VCs - many directly add value to their portfolio companies in myriad ways. It does pose a challenge however - competition to get into high quality deals is fierce and that competition pushes valuations sky high.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!