North Carolina tests how Republicans see themselves after Trump

by @michaelscherer, @AmyEGardner and @jdawsey1

washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
"Of the more than 20,000 who have left the party since the November election, according to data compiled by @BowTiePolitics (...) the overwhelming majority have re-registered as unaffiliated."
"Republicans have made some offsetting gains, however: During the same period, about 13,000 Democrats have changed their registrations, including about 4,500 who have registered as Republicans. "
"Comparable data from January 2017 show that the number of defections from both parties is much higher now."

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More from @lennybronner

4 Jan
Want to run your own election night model for the Georgia Senate runoffs tomorrow? You'll be able to estimate and update turnout as well as Democratic and Republican vote totals as results come in.
In the spirit of transparency @WapoEngineering has made all components of the pipeline and model public. We've also attached some data for you to use as the historical model baseline.
Scrape the live election results from the Georgia Secretary of State election results page using our clarity scraper:

github.com/washingtonpost…
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec 20
More than 1.3 million Georgians have already voted in the Senate runoffs, rivaling general election turnout

@myhlee, @HaistenWillis and I took a look at early voting in the race that will decide control of the Senate.

washingtonpost.com/politics/georg…
Included in the 1.3 million voters are 36,000 people that did not vote in the general election. These voters are younger and less White compared to all runoff voters so far.

Georgia was decided by 55,000 votes in 2018 and 11,000 votes in November.
Those 1.3 million and 36,000 numbers are actually from Friday, we haven't been able to update the numbers because the Georgia absentee file page has been broken all day, Hopefully they fix it by tomorrow morning.

Read 4 tweets
4 Dec 20
More than 1 million absentee ballot requests have come in for the Georgia runoff at this point (compared to 1.45m at this point before 11/3).

Over 25k of those ballots have already been returned and requested!
90% of these requests come from people that voted in Georgia in November. And of the 10% that didn't, nearly 8 out of 10 requested a ballot for 11/3 but didn't return it. So around 20k ballots come from people that didn't vote or even request a ballot in Georgia in November.
52% of these requests come from White voters, 31% from Black voters, 3% from Asian-American, 3% from Hispanic voters and 10% from voters with unknown ethnicity.
Read 5 tweets
2 Dec 20
friends, there is a special runoff election tonight in Georgia's 5th district.

After John Lewis passed away, there was a special election on September 29th. Since no candidate got over 50%, there is a runoff today between Kwanza Hall and Robert M. Franklin (two Democrats).
This special election will determine who will represent GA-5 until the end of John Lewis' term, which is January 3rd 2021. After that Nikema Williams will represent that seat, who won 85% of the vote against the Republican candidate, Angela Stanton-King on 11/3.
The district includes most of Atlanta, consisting of Fulton County and parts of Dekalb and Clayton. In September Hall received 32.3% of the vote and Franklin 28.1%. Neither Williams nor Stanton-King decided to run in the special election.
Read 9 tweets
22 Oct 20
hi friends. we're making our election-night model public today. We use this model to predict turnout and partisan vote totals, which adds context to the results you are seeing on our results pages.

You can read about the model here:
s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/elex-models-pr…
We're trying to be as transparent as possible, so we're releasing our code. Unfortunately, can't release a lot of the data we use in our model, but we've added some sample data so you can see the model in action.

github.com/washingtonpost…
I've outlined my thinking on why I think a model like this is important this year here.

TLDR: this year in particular partial results don't correspond to final outcomes. This model lets us add that context.

Read 5 tweets
12 Feb 20
We're at 85% townships reporting. These voterflow *estimates* get produced as part of the model that I run. This is not an exact measure, it's a mathematically consistent solution to a set of simultaneous equations.
What this suggests is that Bernie Sanders retained approximately 60% of his 2016 vote. With a significant portion going to Elizabeth Warren (18%) and some going to Pete Buttigieg (10%) and Amy Klobuchar (5%).
Hillary Clinton's voters were split among a number of different candidates, with Klobuchar getting the lion share (35%) and a lot also going to Buttigieg (22%). Some of her vote also went to Biden (15%), Warren (10%) and Sanders (9%).
Read 6 tweets

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