goodalexander Profile picture
Feb 23, 2021 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Things I did routinely at a hedge fund I’d never do with my own money. A thread 👇

1/ Run at 4x leverage or higher. Seems self explanatory but this is common. My current leverage is 2x. I’m up mid teens so far this year so plenty of Vol.
2/ Own 1 stock and short 1 stock in the same industry. This is long/short bread and butter but you can use much lower leverage if you avoid this. If you are truly neutral an industry, why even trade it to begin with? Now I buy in industries I like and short in ones I don’t like
3/ Short stocks with market caps below $50b. Takeout risk is real, and can ruin your equity curve. You’ve got a $15m position with 80% takeout premium (yes, this happens) - you’re near your drawdown on a $250m book . Onto the next one
4/ Not lend out highly shorted stocks. This is a complex topic - some shops do this poorly. Others do it well, others pay the lending fees to GPs. In real life you have to sweep heavily borrowed stock to cash account to lend out. Can add big returns. ETFs often rake you here
5/ Avoid credit / forex. What do SEKJPY and the HY/IG Cdx spread have in common? They move with stocks, use balance sheet effectively, and won’t announce they’re making an electric vehicle overnight. Shorting stocks is only sometimes the right short beta trade
6/ Outsource my execution. Philosophical and practical point - if you don’t know what moves your stocks you don’t truly know them. Why would you trust your execution to someone who doesn’t? Why trade without intraday edge ? It’s a huge part of investing
7/ Pay the street. I get LPs love management access and sell side relationships. But I’d rather run a process that can churn faster based on press releases or based on big peer moves. The tcosts to pay the street make you less nimble and actually lose you $.
8/ only trade stocks where I’ve built a fundamental model or previewed earnings. I’m happy to trade a stock I don’t know but it obviously needs a lower risk limit. This can be quantified instead of put in a binary rule. I often have 350 positions and only know 50 well
9/ run factor neutral. I think having an explicit view on the direction of value, momentum, growth, carry etc is a great way to add unlevered returns whereas “neutralizing” these factors more often than not adds other tails by virtue of everyone doing the same thing
10/ target 12x churn but own 10% of a stock’s daily volume. Adding arbitrary portfolio churn parameters incentivizes moving risk into illiquidity. $300m with 300x annual churn is totally fine if you’re trading AAPL and TSLA. W my own $ I only target market impact
11/ Yes I miss the fancy salmon lox spreads at nice hotels. The economics and scale of big funds are humbling. But I’ve chosen to take the road less traveled and build my own style because in the end - I don’t want to wear boxing gloves to the knife fight that is trading

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More from @goodalexander

Aug 8, 2023
What are memes? Why are they here? What do they have to do with free will?

1/ When you see vast amounts of digital advertising data, you do not see evidence of free will

In aggregate, we are predictable. 1000 people click. 8 buy. Clockwork. Individuality is an error coefficient
2/ You see how the sausage is made.

Somebody comes up with a message. It gets shown to a bunch of people. The message resonates or it does not.

Some messages work, others don't.

The ones that work tend to keep working on larger populations with very little exception
3/ This seemingly mundane realization is the basis of multi-billion dollar ad budgets.

People mostly respond the same to visual stimuli. If you blast the stimuli via ad dollars it makes people do things in predictable waves.

Sometimes a person or product hits "ad breakeven"
Read 18 tweets
Jul 28, 2023
Many have observed that ChatGPT became dumber and less useful in the past few months. Below is a thread on fixing this

1/ Recently, ChatGPT shipped “Custom Instructions” which can make the model useful again. Below I get into how I use Custom Instructions to supercharge ChatGPT
2/ First - you'll need to enable Custom Instructions. You do this in the Beta features. You find this under "Settings and Beta".

Once you enable this you will have a tab by your plan that allows you to input Custom Instructions
Image
Image
3/ Custom Instructions has 2 questions. "What would you like ChatGPT to know about you to provide better responses" and "How would you like ChatGPT to respond"

For the first Q, our goal is to provide the system with context and core values. For the second, it's more tactical
Read 18 tweets
Jul 8, 2023
People don't understand Bryan Johnson. So I'm going to engage in the terrible Twitter thread format to explain his work.

1/ He sold Venmo/Braintree to PayPal and made FU money. "what's the point of making FU money if you don't say FU?" He's also ex-Mormon. Explains tweet below
2/ He took $100m of his sale and plowed it into genetic / health tech. He also started his own company to track the brain called Kernel.

He ran a payments company but it seemed crazy to him we couldn't measure our health or or minds as well as we could measure software
3/ The basic thesis underlying a lot of what he does, is that it's really silly that we've deployed huge tech resources on how to addict ourselves to consumer products.

And it'd be better to apply the same kind of rigor to measuring, and enhancing the human mind and body
Read 17 tweets
Jul 7, 2023
How to get ahead of 99.9% of retail investors

1/ Split your strategies up. You have one type of trade where you research a company and hold it for a long time? You also buy options into earnings calls? You also own 'safe high div stocks'. These are all strategies. Measure them
2/ Obsess over PNL line items. Taxes. Transaction costs. Implied market impact (if you're big enough or trading things that are small enough). Interest charges. Cost to borrow. FX roll. Mutual fund/ ETF fees. Do you know how each of these things are trending over time?
3/ Have a volatility measure of success per trade. For example, if you buy a stock with a 16 implied volatility, capturing a 10% move is pretty great. If you hold a stock through earnings maybe the right measure is historical earnings moves. What does winning look like?
Read 13 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
The SEC Charged Zack Morris and other "FinTwitters" with security price manipulation. $100m in fines.

Key list of things not to do based on the filing:

1/ Non Disclosed Dumping. Selling stock you’ve promoted without informing followers you have done so
2/ Deleting the Deed. Removing evidence of your selling a stock your promoted to build trust with your followers
3/ Flexing Implying Financial Advice. Highlight dollar P&L, wealthy lifestyle, and victory lapping trades to convince followers you are providing financial advice

"you banked it with me, nice man"
Read 13 tweets
Oct 9, 2022
The Fed denied the rumored "pivot" this week, increasing corporate borrowing costs. Below I will explore implications

1/ Stocks offer the worst value to high grade bonds in nearly 10 yrs both in the US and internationally. Reversion to mean would imply a ~20% drop in the S&P 500
2/ For apples to apples, I dealt with the composition difference in Investment Grade Bond Indices and the S&P 500 (tech cos have less debt).

The result is similar - implying 17% S&P 500 downside if stock valuations were to move in line with their normal relation credit.
3/ People pay up for stocks vs bonds when 1] the companies can believably grow 2] there isn't extreme credit risk 3] inflation is high (lowering value of fixed payment).

As the Fed has become more hawkish - inflation/growth expects have declined while stocks have stayed rich
Read 21 tweets

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