So @Noahpinion cited me as saying that @swinshi was wrong in his critiques of Biden's plan.

But that's a mis-cite. I said @swinshi 's critiques of *Romney*'s plans were wrong. Biden's plan is totally different, bearing almost no resemblance to Romney's. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
My actual argument is that Romney's plan ***would*** cause some small reduction in market labor, but that it would also modestly incentivize marriage, and that this tradeoff is okay.
Biden's plan is different in numerous regards, but he makes pro-work changes in several places where Romney makes anti-work changes. Biden expands the pro-work CDCTC, and makes no EITC reductions, while expanding for childless workers. That would encourage work.
However, Biden's policies ALSO lead to MUCH BIGGER marriage penalties.

My concern with Biden's plan is that it encourages work ***at the expense of*** family.
So I think @Noahpinion has misunderstood the contours of the debate within conservatism.

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More from @lymanstoneky

23 Feb
Round 2 of the @AmerCompass family survey is fascinating. They find that across a huge range of family statuses, and for all but the most upper-class Americans, a "breadwinner" model of the family is what people hold as their ideal. americancompass.org/essays/home-bu…
Direct cash subsidies are the most popular form of family policy for all groups except childless women, who prefer maternity leave. Baby bonds lag everywhere.
This is a wild graph. People who think we should NOT do more for families are also the most supporting of paid family leave....

.... maybe because they correctly realize paid family leave is mostly a subsidy for work, not for family.
Read 73 tweets
20 Feb
the strange reality of strict calvinism is that it makes a mockery of God's claims to hate, abhort, or even be theoretically opposed to evil
the calvinist solution to the problem of evil, which I have *literally heard from the lips of a faithful well-catechized Presbyterian* is, "well, all that happens is God's will, and to do His will is to manifest goodness, and goodness gives God joy, so God must rejoice in evil"
The hypothetical I gave was, "Suppose that there was a city of Christians, and a bomber flew over the city, and the guy at the controls tripped and accidentally armed and dropped a bomb, and wiped out the city: is that God's will? What does God think of that?"
Read 38 tweets
20 Feb
So @CDCgov 's FluView Interactive website is still broken. The custom download option is dead, so I can't download the usual data I use for Death Day. Please fix it CDC!
But I can sacrifice state detail and just use the national total to do a good-enough version for now.
Okay, death day!

Deaths may be starting to come down! It's still pretty noisy, but we *may* be coming through this thing. Vaccination is chugging along well ahead of infections, though it needs to be EVEN FASTER. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
20 Feb
With the news about China maybe scrapping fertility restrictions in Manchuria, it's worth seeing how that squares with my "China is attempting racist-pronatalism" claim I made in @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/30/chi…

Answer: it fits if you lump in Manchus.
If you think that Han people and the government see Manchus as a distinct ethnic identity with distinct collective interests , if you think Han people see Manchus as ethnically "other," if you think China worries about Manchu particularism, this policy doesn't fit my theory.
But my impression is that today most Han see the Manchus as basically no different. There are some Manchu autonomous counties, but no over-arching Manchu autonomous region, despite them being the 2nd most common minority group in China.
Read 6 tweets
19 Feb
It's Lent. This is a remarkable season but one I think many Christians and non-Christians alike misunderstand and thus they fail to derive the full benefit of the season.
So what is Lent, really?

Well, we give stuff up for 40 days.

Why?

Because 40 is a number often associated with penitence and ascetic discipline in scripture: 40 years in the wilderness, 40 days of Jesus fasting, 40 days of rain for Noah, etc.
We assign the 40 days prior to Eastertide as the Lenten season (which btw "Lent" literally just means "spring" and isn't a liturgical reference at all) as a time of penitence as we prepare for the ecstatic joy of Eastertide and Pentecost.
Read 39 tweets
19 Feb
People wonder why I am so stridently anti-Fauci and the answer is y'all this is a news story from ****February 17**** where Fauci says people shouldn't wear a mask and the thread of juvenile influenza having a second wave is bigger than COVID. usatoday.com/story/news/hea…
We know from Fauci's own public comments since that 1) he was well aware that masks actually did work and was lying because we was worried doctors and nurses wouldn't have enough, 2) people inside the admin thought more dramatic responses were a good idea; Fauci persuaded against
It's just insane.

By February 17, there were NUMEROUS high-quality studies showing base R values for COVID >3 in the early Wuhan outbreak. Ebola, to which Fauci compares COVID, has an R of 1.5-1.9 without controls.
Read 10 tweets

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