César A. Hidalgo 🇭🇺 Profile picture
Feb 24, 2021 21 tweets 5 min read Read on X
There is a lot of discussion of bias in economics. This discussion is justified & needed. What I can add to this is some stories on how economists treat people from outside the field. Let me share with you a few bone chilling stories of what I’ve been through 🧵/1 #EconTwitter
I begun working in economics as a physics PhD student (mid 2000s). In 2007, I published a first author paper in Science, and was asked to present it in a seminar series at Harvard. /2
Right after the seminar, a professor from the other Cambridge MA university approached me. After some small talk, he leaned towards me and whispered into my ear: /3
“I would have liked so much to be the reviewer of your paper, because I would have enjoyed so much rejecting it.” He then stepped back, looked at me, and smiled. /4
It left me cold. He did not seem to get that, for a graduate student, it was not funny to have a senior faculty from a top tier university whisper into his ear that he would feel pleasure rejecting his work. But there is more. /5
A few years later I started a faculty position at MIT. As part of my onboarding, MIT press wrote an article about my work (it is a standard practice). I met with a reporter and told him about my work on economic complexity (PNAS 2009) & relatedness (Science 2007). /6
The article came out a few months later, and it was featured in the cover of mit.edu (since at that time the image from MIT’s homepage was derived from the featured MIT news story of the day). /7
Within minutes, a senior faculty from MIT, and future Nobel prize winner, wrote an email to the president of the University demanding the removal of the news article. /8 Image
Soon the department head and another future Nobel prize winner continued to pile on. The papers they are referring to are papers that have received 1000s of citations, were published in top journals, and have grown to be influential in international development. /9 ImageImage
The bottom line was that three senior faculty, including two future Nobel prize winners and the department head, were ganging up against a junior faculty with less than a year at the university (anybody said welcoming committee?) /10
These are just two stories. But I have many more. Some involve betrayal from close colleagues that are even more painful. In all earnest, I must say that I also have many good friends that are economists, but I have clear & frequent, PTSD from these experiences. /11
My original sin was to be interested in economic development & contribute to it through the perspective of structural transformation, physics, & machine learning. But my trajectory means I pay a daily emotional toll to continue working on the field. /12
So why share these stories? And why now?

Because the more I become embedded in the field the more I see how this toxicity consumes the minds of younger students. It is an academic world of exclusion, fear, and deception. /13
I’ve coached and mentored many students, alone or with co-advisors, and I see how the students that don’t come from the right places struggle to belong, and I know they never will. /14
They are dipped to think that if they sophisticate their methods more, and have more robustness and causality checks, they would be accepted. And they produce 80 page long papers with all the methods they can find that not even themselves like to read. /15
But they don’t realize that the extra effort is unlikely to make a difference, and they could be better targeting a healthier community. The institutionalization of rejection is communicated as rigor and methods (surmountable), but it is closer to a disciplinary culture. /16
Despite my scar tissue, top people in the field do engage with me one-on-one, and some even endorse me publicly (see the endorsements of my latest book at judgingmachines.com). But I am lucky, already damaged, and have a community outside the field. /17
But many young researchers are not that lucky. They are outsider/insiders, with no other academic community or identity to fall back on. I see how they are consumed by the puzzle of how to signal that they belong. /18
During this decade, I grew convinced that scientists do not leave fields because they get tired of ideas, but because they get tired of people. Science without camaraderie & a sense of wonder, feels like doing homework forever. The devil that you know is not always best. /19
Will the culture of economics change? I doubt it. The pleasure of feeling that “I belong” because “you don’t” is primal. I’ve experienced first hand. Whether it is whispered into on ear, gossiped in a hallway, or emailed to a university president. /20
The only thing that I can ask you, if you are reading is, is for you to choose to be different. For those interested in what I did, here is a review on the field that a few have so adamantly rejected. centerforcollectivelearning.org/s/s42254-020-0…

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More from @cesifoti

Aug 2, 2023
**New Paper**
Economic complexity methods are popular tools in industrial policy. Yet, despite their widespread adoption, these methods are sometimes misunderstood. In this new paper, I explain & explore the policy implications of economic complexity. /1
https://t.co/BQ6xLOA8cMbuff.ly/3YjBFbh
Image
First, why are economic complexity methods misunderstood?
A key part of the confusion comes from the predictive nature of these methods. The concept of relatedness, for instance, anticipates the probability that a country or region will succeed at an activity./2
So the knee-jerk reaction that people get when they encounter these methods is to develop a strategy that recommends what the method predicts. These are the products/industries that would be easiest to achieve. But this line of thought is both wrong & incomplete./3
Read 21 tweets
Jun 25, 2023
What is intelligence?
And how is it different from problem solving?

These questions are central in our current discussion on AI & were debated passionately this week at the Santa Fe Institute’s conference on collective intelligence.

But what did we learn?

🧵 .. 1/N

First, a disclaimer. In this thread I will focus on one idea, not all the ideas discussed in the conference, and will obviate other aspects of intelligence (eg multidimensional intelligence), not because these are not important, but because I want to communicate one point.
My focus will be on a distinction between intelligence & problem solving, because in my experience, when people are pushed to define intelligence on the fly they often gravitate towards a problem solving definitions of intelligence.
Read 23 tweets
May 14, 2023
AI hype is on full swing, to a large extent, because of language models.

But as a writer, I am not totally convinced about the “productivity boosts.”

You see, writing fulfills a dual purpose. On the one hand, we write to communicate. But on the other hand…. /1
we write to clarify our own ideas.

We write to learn in ways that cannot be accomplished by reading.

A big part of what motivates a writer to work on a book is knowing that at the end of the journey I’ll be a different person.
You write not because you are an expert, but to become one.

Writing is sincere. It pushes you to encounter your own incompetence, repeatedly. And when your own words look stupid & your ideas malformed, you must either abandon them or refine them. In that process you learn.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 22, 2023
¿Cuanto litio exporta Chile? ¿Qué tan "lejos" esta Chile de las baterías? Acá un hilo con varios datos sobre el litio y sus derivados.

1. Chile es el principal exportador mundial de carbonato de litio. En el 2022, exportó USD 7600M de este producto
oec.world/en/profile/cou… ImageImage
2. Este gran volumen exportador es un fenómeno reciente. Hasta finales del 2021 Chile exportaba ~USD 100M de carbonato de litio al mes. En Mayo del 2022 las exportaciones llegaron a USD 1400 millones mensuales! Hoy están alrededor de los USD 600M al mes. Image
3. Chile también exporta hidroxido de litio. Este es un producto de mayor valor agregado, que permite hacer mejores baterías, y es favorecido por los productores de vehículos eléctricos. Acá Chile exporta menos (~USD 60M al mes pero creciendo). El principal exportador es China. ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
What can LLMs teach us about economics?
Like everyone else, economists have been enjoying the foibles & virtues of large language models (LLMs). But can these models teach us something about the economy that we don’t already know?
weforum.org/agenda/2023/03… /1
I believe there is much that economists can learn, not by chatting with LLMs, but by deconstructing how they work. After all, LLMs are built on mathematical concepts that are powerful enough to simulate language. Maybe, these models work can become a new source of inspiration.
To understand how LLMs work, it is useful to start with the most primitive version of a language-generating model. Imagine using a large corpus of text to count the number of times each word, such as brown, is followed by another word, such as dog.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 28, 2023
Tesla just announced they are building a new plant in Monterrey.

Could we have predicted this using AI?

The data tells us why Monterrey and Nuevo Leon are an excellent fit for Tesla.

Thread 🧵 /1
@elonmusk
To do this, we will use datamexico.org, an official data distribution platform from the secretary of the economy, and tools from economic complexity, an academic field using machine learning to understand the evolution of economies.
Just like chatGPT knows that tea & coffee are related because they are used similarly in sentences, we can know how economic activities, such as the manufacture of electric vehicles, are related to others based on their patterns of collocations.
Read 12 tweets

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