I think it's...interesting...that a lot of people are very convinced that there is no motivated reasoning on the left and also very convinced that the science is settled on a large minimum wage hike
The disagreement among economists isn't particularly ideological; it comes down to whether or not you think it's appropriate to have a certain kind of dummy variable when comparing data from a natural experiment
(To be sure, I fully expect a careful accounting of who supports which variable is influenced by their ideological priors. The point here is both sides have plausible intellectual cover for that)
The kind of econometrics that find minimum wage hikes have a negligible impact on employment also find that other government programs have a smaller effect than the studies progressives tend to cite
Whether or not it's actually inconsistent to use different econometric methods between different policy questions is a complex issue, and one I do not think is resolved with a simple "yes" or "no"
However, casual observers would do well to mind the fact that if the minimum wage hikes have a limited effect, the methods that prove that suggest many other government programs like welfare are ineffective

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More from @ProofofBurden

27 Feb
I guess what I'll say about any apparent link to an Odal rune a certain stage might have is that's a pretty deep cut from Nazi iconography and there are a lot more overt things said by CPAC attendees that require far less parsing and have far less plausible deniability
On the one hand, you literally have to ignore part of the stage to see a strict Odal rune so color me doubtful. On the other hand, if conclusive evidence of this theory emerges, I'm not going to be sitting here going, "Nazis! At CPAC! Well I never!"
A bunch of people who I would bet money did not know about Norse runes or their link to Nazi symbolism are saying that someone in the planning should have seen this and I really do not buy that we all need to have the Elder Futhark rattling around in our heads to prevent this
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
On a very superficial level, #DontKillItBernie is a lot to take in. Set aside what you think the right thing is to do, imagine if Warren were budget chair what that would look like
This is the first time I've ever seen Uygur talk about an MOC in less than vitriolic terms

I cackled a vengeful, inappropriate cackle when I saw, "Don't listen to Biden!" Harris has the ultimate authority here, though Leahy would probably wield it as a practical matter

Read 11 tweets
26 Feb
1/ Yesterday I spent way to much mental energy on this very tiresome man insisting we must DO SOMETHING bout Greene calling for adjournment. He eventually called me a Nazi sympathizer for thinking she had no power here ImageImage
2/ I'm not posting cold tea from yesterday's Twitter drama to relitigate it, though I am petty enough to point out he may not understand that the House had rules ImageImage
3/ Just a few bad arguments I see a lot that this man managed to cram into our back and forth. The first the idea that McConnell was generally an evil wizard so Schumer should be able to pass anything by being an evil wizard
Read 11 tweets
26 Feb
I'm also increasingly disenchanted with the term "culture war". I think it's a good political science term, but its popular use is increasingly to mean, "Distractions from *real* issues" which are usually the speaker's personal interests
I agree that there is a political class cynically elevating TERFism for political gain, but I also think a significant number of people, both in leadership but especially among voters, now count the oppression of trans people as one of their personal interests
Even if it is some kind of "false consciousness", it's still an immediate threat to the physical, mental, and economic well-being of trans people in our communities and downplaying that because it would require your metaphysics to account for what is happening now is wrong
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
1/ Before I get into this, the discourse right now sometimes gets treated as an invitation to speculate on people's genitals. You know what you don't have to do? THAT! But since we're talking gender affirming policy, here's a study about trans healthcare

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
2/ All binary trans people in the survey (which had a small N, so don't generalize too aggressively) said they would at least consider hormone therapy. 22.9% of non-binary (NB, pronounced "enby") people ruled it out, with another 40.0% unsure
3/ The takeaway if you're supporting legislation: Access matters a lot, but not every non-cis person wants to access it
Read 26 tweets
25 Feb
1/ Disney+ has now dropped two shows in the once weekly format and tried to tell me I would have been less happy if they had dropped it all at once. No, incorrect
2/ The mysteries on both The Mandalorian and Wandavision were not solvable by merely watching the show
3/ "Which Jedi is going to adopt Grogu" was a deus ex machina. The hints for the musical reveal in Wandavision actively undercut the characterization to that point
Read 5 tweets

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