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Tim Harford Profile picture
@TimHarford
Mar 1, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Ten Rules for Thinking Differently about Numbers...

RULE ZERO
*Indiscriminate doubt is at least as dangerous as indiscriminate belief.*

People talk about the weird things conspiracy theorists believe, but think about all the things they first have to disbelieve...
This has been well understood since the 1950s (Big Tobacco starts the 'manufacture doubt' strategy), through climate change denial, negative campaigning - or consider Steve Bannon's famous remark: "flood the zone with sh*t".
Doubt is powerfully corrosive.
It's why I am guarded about Darrell Huff's book "How To Lie With Statistics": it feeds the narrative that all statistics & all evidence are inherently dubious and can therefore be dismissed if we wish.
"The Data Detective" is intended to be an antidote.
timharford.com/books/datadete… Image
Cory @doctorow suggested it should have been titled "How To Truth With Statistics" - I missed a trick there...
More on "Rule Zero" here:

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More from @TimHarford

Tim Harford Profile picture
May 12, 2023
This is my father-in-law, Eamonn Monks. He was born in Dublin in 1933 and came to the UK in the mid 1950s. At first he lived in London, where he trained as a dentist and met his future wife, Brigid. Image
But later Eamonn and Brigid moved to Poulton-le-Fylde, outside Blackpool. This Irish immigrant became a pillar of the local community, caring for the community’s aching teeth before becoming a dentist for the prison service. The Northwest was lucky to have him…
…and his amazing children, who became a) Britain’s best baker b) One the UK’s finest audiologists c) The founder of an amazing mental health charity in Hackney d) the driving force behind Liverpool’s parks and green spaces and e) An award winning portrait photographer... Image
Read 12 tweets
Tim Harford Profile picture
Mar 17, 2023
Why children can be better than adults at spotting misinformation: ft.com/content/157d51…
For the past few months I've been trying to figure out how to help 9-13 year olds make sense of the world (and particularly the numbers that describe it).
It might seem an umpromising task...
Most adults struggle with complex statistics and many feel powerless to evaluate almost any claim in the form of a number. An unnervingly large minority doubt straightforward claims. If the adults can’t cope, what hope do pre‑teens have?
Read 10 tweets
Tim Harford Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023
Oo, first glimpses inside The Truth Detective, which is out next week! Ollie Mann has done a wonderful job bringing my ideas to life.
For those asking, the book is aimed at 9-13 year olds, although I keep having to confiscate my copy from the grown-ups...
Here's one of our Truth Detectives, Muhammad Yunus, microfinance pioneer and advocate of the "worm's eye view"...
Here's magician Derren Brown tossing a coin and getting ten heads in a row - with NO MAGIC REQUIRED.
How is it done?
Read 6 tweets
Tim Harford Profile picture
Jan 27, 2023
What can Lego teach us about how to save the planet? ft.com/content/cc6131…
Large complex projects have a habit of going wrong - sometimes catastrophically wrong. Just ask @dgardner and @BentFlyvbjerg, authors of the well-worth-your-time new book "How Big Things Get Done"

assoc-redirect.amazon.com/g/r/https://ww…
But @BentFlyvbjerg has found that if large complex projects are built up from repeated modular elements, the same gloomy tendency does not apply. Modular projects are less likely to overrun and vastly less likely to overrun catastrophically. Why is this?
Read 5 tweets
Tim Harford Profile picture
Jan 6, 2023
If if may permitted some mild grumpiness, I present my opinionated guide to bad email etiquette. Whether you’re a cubicle dweller or a corporate communications supremo, here are the seven types of email you should never send...
ft.com/content/5700be…
1) The email reminding me that my 7.34am train tomorrow departs at 7.34am. Or that I will need to bring my passport if I want to get on the plane. Stuff changes (especially these days) so these emails must be read. But they're an insult to the 99% least incompetent customers.
2) The omnibus email. On and on it goes, rambling like a pub storyteller. Generally if you have three different things, three short emails will be better; then I can deal with each one in turn. Also...
Read 9 tweets
Tim Harford Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
Tell me, people, is there a sexier word in the English language than "storage"?
ft.com/content/557fd6…
Ah, okay. You may be right. But that's a problem. In today's column I ask whether we're skimping on storage (I think we are, even after accounting for hindsight) - and if so, why.
Part of the problem is that the "storage business model" is regarded with distaste. Start a business in which you fill warehouses with PPE, toilet paper, bottled water, bottles of cooking gas, and rice, then sell it all on at a profit when there's trouble; you'll not be thanked.
Read 4 tweets

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