Have not tweeted much about #biotech lately, but a recent grad asked for some advice (about to move to the HC team at an IB.) Passed these along:
First, a few tips re science/medical data:
1) look at the name of the disease — is it highly specific? (“TRK-fusion positive tumor”) or a random label (“Alzheimer’s Disease”). The more specific the understanding of the disease — especially on a genetic level — the more likely that things will work.
2) related to #1 — over time you’ll get a feel for how reliable the measurements that make up the data readouts are. Specific easily reproducible numbers (weight, % survival) are much more reliable than arbitrarily made up “scores.”
Neurology and psychiatry are minefields for data — nature did such a good job protecting our central nervous systems that they are extremely difficult to study.
For devices: they are almost all a combination of an energy source and a delivery system. To understand them quickly break it down into the two and figure out how novel one or the other is.
Back to data: if you are given raw numbers, convert them to %’s. If you get %, find out the # of people in the trial and convert it to numbers. If they both look impressive — great. If one does not believe the one that is least impressive. @Columbia students know this one well.
Brings us to statistics — to me the single most important skill for really understanding innovation in healthcare A could of good resources, one general and one specific to healthcare / biology:
Harvey Motulsky’s Intuitive Biostatistics (denser and not so intuitive at times — free download below) academia.edu/40433614/Intui…
For basic science, you may want to read small amounts regularly rather than try to learn the vocabulary all at once.
Chemistry:
The single best science resource that I use is Derek Lowe’s blog “In The Pipeline” in Science. blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/
@Dereklowe is brilliant and while some of the pieces are really dense and jargon-y, a lot of them are really accessible. The vocabulary eventually sinks in.
Biology:
I would not spend too much time on basic bio, instead learning it in the context of applied biology ie medicine and biotechnology. The background science will sink in within the context of the stories and case studies. Some good sources:
Anything Atul Gawande writes is great (his column in The New Yorker is a must read.) My personal favorites for getting up to speed on healthcare and science:
A little more dense, but very readable, are Siddartha Mukherjee’s books on cancer and genetics. Thankfully PBS’ Nova made both into really good documentaries. @DrSidMukherjee siddharthamukherjee.com
There is a lot of good science combined with an excellent overview of the drug industry in Thomas Hager’s Ten Drugs amazon.com/Ten-Drugs-Powd…
Not as much science, but Elisabeth Rosenthal’s book American Sickness gives a really good (and depressing) overview of the US healthcare system. @RosenthalHealth amazon.com/American-Sickn…
If you end up doing a lot of biotech, there is a good book on biotech forecasting and modeling: @Frank_S_David amazon.com/Pharmagellan-G…
(Self promotion disclosure: I wrote the foreword.)
Another really good resource for the biotech industry and the science behind it is The Timmerman Report (subscription, worth it) timmermanreport.com
Bruce Booth, a partner at Atlas Venture, writes an excellent blog about drug development and science: lifescivc.com
He’s an ex-McKinsey guy so there is usually a good data set with each article. @LifeSciVC
Ed Yong is The Atlantic’s best science writer theatlantic.com/author/ed-yong/
(The Atlantic probably has the best top to bottom science writing of any general publication) @edyong209
If I had to predict the hottest area in healthcare banking in the coming decade it would be immunology. Matt Richter, a New York Times writer, wrote a good overview amazon.com/Elegant-Defens…
So welcome to the club! There is no more interesting area of the economy than healthcare. We now have the computing power to tackle biology, which makes this the most timely field of study this century.
And we heal the sick and relieve suffering, making it the most timeless.
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Biotech investing for the non-scientist part 2 or 3 (I lost track): when to buy and sell a biotech stock. 🧵
(Part of an ongoing series on risk management in #biotech for retail investors.)
(Not advice on what to buy or sell and definitely not a solicitation of any sort.)
In biotechnology, where valuation is less an exercise in calculating the present worth of assets and future cash flows, and more an estimation of making more out of less in between financing events, the milestone calendar is particularly important.
Unfortunately, the definition of "value creation" is a moving target.