1/ An excellent new paper from Denmark that tracks every vaccination given to nursing home residents there shows an 40% RISE in infections immediately after the first @pfizer dose and no efficacy at any point. Protection in this population after “full” vaccination is 64%...
2/ The researchers also tracked health-care workers, the other group in Denmark to receive the vaccine first. They actually had an even LARGER rise in infections immediately following dose 1, but overall higher protection at “full” vaccination (a week after dose 2) - 90%...
3/ This paper is the best yet (because it’s the least political). It is also in line with the Israeli and English data show once you wade through their spin. The takeaways are: The vaccine is much less effective in the people who need it most and DON’T DELAY THE SECOND SHOT...
4/ By the way, i#depending on how long the vaccine provides protection, its OVERALL effectiveness will be below whatever the peak figure is, maybe well below - you need a lot of good weeks to make up for that bolus at the beginning - but I don’t even want to go there.
5/ This paper also shows why the raw Israeli numbers are trash - if infections are declining overall (as they were in Israel and Denmark in February) looking at infections in the vaccinated population without adjusting for that trend markedly overestimates the vaccine effect.
6/ One last point: vaccine efficacy is also overestimated on a population basis because the Israeli and Danish data show about 10% of elderly people get one dose but not the second, presumably because they couldn’t tolerate it. So they get all the downside and none of the upside.
7/ They are also not counted as fully vaccinated, which makes the vaccine numbers look better.

Source: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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More from @AlexBerenson

10 Mar
1/ Here, Imma explain to you:

#sarscov2 is real. But its risks have been vastly overstated for most people; health experts, governments, and the media have used that inflated risk to shove lockdowns, school closures, and other interventions on us...
2/ In each case, they have inflated potential efficacy while dismissing side effects. Vaccines are the latest example of this phenomenon. The mRNA vaccines do reduce mild to moderate cases of Covid, at the cost of serious side effects for many people...
3/ That's what the clinical trials proved. That's ALL they proved. The real-world data is messy, but it too does NOT suggest the vaccines come close to eliminating death or serious cases of Covid. WE NEED TO LEARN TO LIVE WITH COVID, JUST AS WE DO WITH THE FLU...
Read 4 tweets
9 Mar
Fact check: @cdcgov should be glad I'm doing their job for them. The 95% number was a fantasy - the companies enrolled almost no one over 80 in the trials and as the German paper makes clear, many people in that age range have no measurable antibodies even after two doses...
Further, as of last week, more than 150 "fully vaccinated" (a week post second dose) Israelis had died of Covid - plus hundreds of people who died of Covid after the first dose (which in the short run actually raises the odds of being infected, if the British data is correct)...
The reason you don't know any of this is not because it's not true - the figures come directly from Public Health England and the Israeli Health Ministry. It's because the vaccine cost-benefit analysis is (very) complicated, and no one in the media is willing to say so...
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
1/ Wow. This is the paper I’ve been waiting for. German researchers examined how well the @pfizer vaccine worked in people over 80 compared to under 60.

The answer: not well at all. 17 days after the second dose - peak protection - 1/3 had NO neutralizing antibodies...
2/ Compared to only 2% of the younger group. And 17 days after 1 dose, only 1% of the older group (and 16% of the younger) had neutralizing antibodies.

This is the cell-level answer to the question of why Israel reported few gains into February. One dose is nearly useless...
3/ And why a fair number of vaccinated people are still getting sick and dying. As with the flu vaccine, Come-here-naughty works great except for the people who really need it. Link: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
1/ Attention citizens! Your Dept. Of Pandemia reports that after meeting with its top sciencyists, it has new guidance on what you get to do after you have been vaccinated:

Q: Can I meet my friends?
A: You can meet friends who have been vaccinated in the same arm as you.

Q: I am a 36-year-old teacher -
A: No, still better to stay home. Unless you need to drop your kids at private school.
Q: I am a 59-year-old grocery clerk -
A: And you got vaccinated? SHAME ON YOU.
Q: Can I fly?
A: We're sending this one to Your Dept. Of Climate Change.

Q: I am a healthy 42-year-old who had a mini-stroke three days after being vaccinated -
A: Sucks to be you.
Q: My doctor said it might be related -
A: Not listening, not listening at all. Just be glad it wasn't a maxi-stroke.
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
1/ One fascinating part of the papers British and Scottish health services have put out on post-vaccine outcomes (as well as the data the Israelis have released): none
include the most crucial number of all.

All-cause mortality. Not just deaths from COVID-19, but all deaths...
2/ And they have those figures. Oh yes they do. Because the British paper (which also dances around the fact the @pfizer vaccine increases - yes, increases - the risk of getting Covid for THREE FULL WEEKS after the first dose)...
3/ Explains the Pfizer shot reduced hospitalizations AFTER A POSITIVE TEST for #Covid.

But you have to go to supplementary table 4 (the truth is in the supplementaries, if it's anywhere) to learn the shot RAISED the odds of hospitalization in people who didn't test positive...
Read 5 tweets
7 Mar
1/ Someone today asked if obesity wasn’t the real risk factor for death from #Covid. The answer is no. It’s age, age, age. And after a year we know the relative risks very well. Here’s a simple way to figure them - it’s not perfect but it’s highly directionally accurate...
2/ Baseline IFR risk for a healthy 20-year-old: 1 in 1 million. 0.0001%.

That DOUBLES every five years until 85. So by 40, it’s 1 in 62,500. By 60, 1 in ~4,000. By 85, 1 in ~100.

Still seem too low? It is. Adjust now for health - under 40, your risk triples per comorbidity...
3/ 40-60, it rises 2.5x per additional risk. Over 60, it doubles. And these are multiplicative risks, not additive. So if you are 30 and have two, your risk is 9x the baseline. Risks are mainly metabolic/CV- obesity, diabetes, heart disease, etc. (Severe obesity counts as two.)
Read 4 tweets

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