Thread geolocating & analyzing Ansar al-Tawhid's #IRAM strikes in Tel Mardikh, #Idlib, #Syria yesterday. Both of their unique IRAM (#Hameem & #Burkan) were used in the strikes.

Will mostly focus on the #Burkan here, see quoted thread for background.

Ansar al-Tawhid first announced the strikes targeting Regime forces in Tel Mardikh on their TG bot at 15:17 local time on 03/09/2021. At 19:40 they released the below announcement claiming the strikes led to seven Tiger Forces and one 5th Corps fighter killed & another 15 wounded
At 22:01 they released an untitled, 00:57 video showing the operation. In addition to new tank technicals & artillery, the video also shows launches of 2 #Burkan & at least 5 #Hameem rockets shown in the frames below numbered in launch order
Each IRAM can be confirmed by their boosters following launch as shown below. The #Burkan looks like it may have slightly smaller fins this time but otherwise both look unchanged from when they were last seen. The vid shows no Hameem impacts, but confirms the Burkan impacts
Both #Burkan impacts are shown roughly 7 sec apart, causing fairly large blasts. My annotations on the frames are for geolocation in next tweet.
The video alone can confirm both #Burkan hit the West side of Tel Mardikh as claimed. However, Ansar al-Tawhid also published 6, in-person photos taken of the damage at the 1st impact site on their secondary "Visual Reports" TG channel at 17:42. Cont/
All the imagery allows the exact location of the first #Burkan's impact to be confirmed. This is the most information we have on its potential damage so far. All imagery of previous Burkan launches either do not show the impact or show a large, dispersed cloud well afterward.
Comparing the damage to the lethal radius* of a 9M22U & the 07/31/2019 #Hameem impact I confirmed previously, we see (as expected) that the #Burkan does significantly more damage than more normal #IRAM & artillery rockets.

*caveat I don't have space for

However, the comparison may also support my prev assumption that this iteration of the #Burkan has a significantly reduced payload relative to the original. This payload reduction is likely the cost of switching to a more accurate design w/ internally mounted 9M22Us.
In summary - the location of the 1st impact & my best approximation of the 2nd impact are detailed below. Based on context & range of previous #Burkan strikes, my *GUESS* for a launch site would be around the village of Saan roughly 5km West but that's unconfirmable.
Given how Ansar al-Tawhid has released more specific claims about damage, casualties, and imagery of a #Burkan impact than ever before, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the best it's ever performed. It's also safe to say they're getting better at using these large #IRAM
This launch is indicative of Ansar al-Tawhid's increasing competency as a specialist artillery/rocket force in #Idlib. Their development is fairly unique and may have implications about increasing technical proficiency of even relatively small armed groups.

h/t @CalibreObscura

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More from @MMissiles2

29 Jun 20
Thread recording every known #R9X Hellfire (aka #NinjaMissile & #FlyingGinsu) strike.

The AGM-114R-9X is an inert variant of the AGM-114 "Hellfire" developed by #Lockheed that is meant to reduce risk of civilian casualties while using pop-out blades to maintain lethality.
The #R9X has received much attention since a @WSJ article by @glubold & @wstrobel last year where it was said to have been used "about a half-dozen times" against high level terrorist targets in "#Libya #Syria #Iraq #Yemen & #Somalia"

wsj.com/articles/secre…
Its extreme precision, exotic nature, and increasingly visible usage by what is presumed to be #JSOC and #CIA according to a piece by @FranticGoat for @thewarzonewire have kept it in the spotlight though.

thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3…
Read 18 tweets

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