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Daniel DePetris Profile picture
@DanDePetris
Mar 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Damn. Timber Sycamore, the CIA’s covert program to support Syria’s rebels, was a disaster.

Jordanians and Turks were caught stealing weapons from the pile and selling them on the black market.

Arms were seized by jihadists.

CIA-supported units were wiped out. ImageImage
Poignant comments from @brett_mcgurk. Image
Trump wraps up Timber Sycamore. ImageImageImage
After Assad’s chemical weapons attack in Douma in 2018, John Bolton wanted Trump to bomb Syria’s military and governing infrastructure. Jim Mattis, concerned about inadvertently getting into a conflict with Russia, advocated a narrower list of targets. Mattis won out. ImageImageImageImage

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More from @DanDePetris

Daniel DePetris Profile picture
Dec 6, 2024
It’s decision time for Russia in Syria.

Assad’s future looks more precarious than ever. The HTS-led coalition is on its way to Homs, and if that city is captured, the coastal areas—where Russia’s naval and air bases are located—are effectively cut off from Damascus. (1/7) 🧵 Image
The Russian response has been tepid thus far. The Kremlin is giving statements that it continues to support the Syrian government in its fight against terrorists and has launched some airstrikes in support of Assad’s forces. But the rebel advance southward continues. (2/7)
Russia has invested a significant amount of capital in keeping Assad afloat, who is viewed in Moscow as an annoying but relatively pliable partner. Indeed if it wasn’t for Russian air power, Assad would have been dead or in exile a long time ago. (3/7)
Read 11 tweets
Daniel DePetris Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024
Israel and Assad's relationship is complicated. (1/5)
On the one hand, Israel views Assad as an Iranian lackey, a man who basically turned his country into an Iranian outpost to keep himself in power. Israel has struck Syria hundreds, if not thousands, of times over the last decade to destroy Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah. In September, Israeli special operations forces raided an underground missile production facility inside Syria. Netanyahu also warned Assad last week that he's a target if he enables Hezbollah's re-arming. (2/5) nytimes.com/2024/09/12/us/…
At the same time, Assad is also viewed as the devil they know. While that devil is brutal, inhumane and inscrutable, he's also preferable to a bunch of jihadists overrunning Damascus and turning one of Israel's neighbors into a caliphate. 3/5)
Read 7 tweets
Daniel DePetris Profile picture
Oct 4, 2024
The pattern over the last year is well established.

The United States tries to modify Israel's behavior. Israel says thanks but no thanks and does what it wants, ignoring U.S. concerns. And the U.S. eventually falls back in line and supports whatever Israel decides to do. 🧵
There are too many examples to cite, but here are a few.👇
Early on, the U.S. implored the Israeli government to open up the aid taps into Gaza to alleviate a humanitarian disaster. Israel agrees but then puts in place procedures and security measures that stifle the flow of aid and lead to a backlog of trucks at the border.
Read 16 tweets
Daniel DePetris Profile picture
Jul 7, 2024
If NATO isn’t willing to go to war with Russia to save Ukraine now, why would it be willing to go to war with Russia to save Ukraine later? Thats a very straightforward question proponents of NATO membership for Kyiv need to ask. I think the answer is obvious: it wouldn’t.
Also, McFaul gets it backwards. Bringing Ukraine into NATO is a great way to keep the war going because Putin would have zero incentive—zip—to wind it down. Why stop if he knows membership is around the corner after the fighting ends?
The folks who think NATO membership is some panacea to all of Ukraine’s security problems are woefully naive.
Read 6 tweets
Daniel DePetris Profile picture
Jan 11, 2024
Should the U.S. bomb Houthi targets in Yemen? 🧵
First, some context. According to DoD, there have been 27 Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea area since Nov 19. U.S. and U.K. warships have successfully shot down many of these drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and ballistic missiles before reaching their targets. No casualties or major damage have been reported so far.
Yet despite the establishment of a U.S.-led maritime task force and last week's ominous ultimatum, the Houthis continue to attack Red Sea shipping lanes. UK PM Rishi Sunak is reportedly set to hold a full cabinet meeting tonight on possible military options. The Pentagon has already drawn up a list of targets.
Read 16 tweets
Daniel DePetris Profile picture
Oct 14, 2023
An Israeli invasion of Gaza is going to be hell. It’s already hell. But what comes after could be just as worse, particularly if the Israelis find themselves sucked into re-occupying and administering a territory with 2.3m Palestinians. What’s the plan for the day after? 🧵
Hamas is a terrorist organization. But it has also served as the de-facto Palestinian government in Gaza for the last 16 years. Eradicate Hamas and you eradicate the Hamas government. Presumably Israel would want to find a replacement before their troops pull out.
There aren’t any good options. Nobody wants to touch Gaza, which has long been synonymous with poverty, underdevelopment, violence, and hopelessness.
Read 11 tweets

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