Thread by @RidT

Wow, what a remarkable document dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…

So impressed by how much newsworthy detail is in there, really needs some time for proper processing. Good thing I’m on a walk with a sleeping baby.

First things first. Yes, US intelligence has failed in the past. But the IC has learned a lot of lessons. See last page on estimative language, methodology. Also the “minority view.” So, if the joint IC has high confidence in a specific assessment, then I have high confidence.

This "scope note" is likely to get lost in the press coverage, but is of towering importance: the Intelligence Community does not assess impact and success of foreign influence operations, and does not weigh external impact on organic U.S. developments and divisions. So, caution.

Overarching takeaway: Russian intelligence actors and proxies were far more prolific, more aggressive, and more risk-taking in the 2020 election cycle than many assumed, myself included. They were also more covert and more disciplined than in 2016. Expect more.

A highly remarkable data-point. 2014.

Hello Rudy 👋

What is the US firm that was hired by Russian proxies to petition US officials? And what's the documentary and where did it air in late Jan 2020?

This sure looks like somebody has decent visibility into Russian targets

The unclassified intelligence assessment stops short of attributing the infamous Hunter Biden/New York Post leak to Russian proxies — but it appears more likely today that there was at least some form of Russian involvement.

Still, given the magnitude of the Hunter Biden leaks, I would think we still want like to see a more specific assessment, with more public evidence. My initial warning stands, especially this part: washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…

This is probably correct. And, yes, Facebook deserves a good amount of praise for having been particularly proactive. Twitter also delivered.

This btw reads as if the Burisma subsidiary phishing attempts were unsuccessful, but text is ambiguous.

Important to be cautious here. None of this influence activity was strategically significant or effective. Russian activity in 2020 was less impressive than in 2016. And a hard look at the data shows that—highly likely—not even 2016 moved the needle.

https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1371903598871904262