I kind of expected this day to come, but still surprised that it actually arrived.
I'm going to do a quick FAQ🧵 for the public (both scientists & non-scientists) who are just hearing about the possibility of COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 having emerged from lab or research activities.
Is it racist to ask whether COVID-19 emerged from a lab or from the wildlife trade in China? No.
Have racist people asked the question above? Yes.
More importantly, will people call you a racist if you ask whether COVID-19 emerged from a lab or from the wildlife trade in China?
Unfortunately, yes, it is quite likely they will call you a racist and more.
And yes, even if you're Asian, you could be called a race traitor.
If COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 actually emerged from research activities, does it mean that it is a bioweapon?
No.
Actually, the vast majority of pathogens that have leaked from labs worldwide are natural ones initially collected from natural hosts.
Not bioweapons. Very important.
Similar question: If COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 actually emerged from research activities, does it mean it was designed or created in the lab, like magic, NOT based on similar natural viruses that were collected & studied by labs?
No. Scientists don't have those awesome powers yet.
If COVID-19 actually emerged from research activities instead of a natural spillover, does that impact today's public health measures and vaccines?
No.
So today, someone tweeted at me, suggesting that if the virus actually came from a lab, then we must lock down now.
This is not true.
We're 1+ year into the pandemic now. Knowing if it came from a lab or wild animals shouldn't dictate public health strategy.
Knowing the origins of a virus is most important at the beginning of the outbreak so you can track it down - it's quite likely that the index cases may not have been in the city of detection.
If it came from a lab, that's useful to know because there could be data describing it.
Knowing the origins of COVID-19 is also important for future outbreaks.
If we know which origins scenarios are plausible, then we can act to mitigate the risk of COVID-19 happening again - anywhere in the world, in any lab or market, any time in the future.
This is the kind of dangerous FAQ:
Will finding out that COVID-19 emerged from research activities or wildlife trade in China lead to massive geopolitical consequences?
And also more racism?
I can't predict the answer. And this is why it is so scary for some experts and scientists to venture into this territory.
It would be the first time we're dealing with the possibility of a lab escape as the world together in real time (not decades later as an academic thesis).
But what I believe is, if we do not properly investigate the origins of COVID-19 and fail to implement measures to prevent such a pandemic from occurring again, then we are doomed to repeat this accident - whether by wildlife trade, environment destruction or research activities.
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No punches pulled piece on #OriginOfCovid by @ianbirrell
"The pandemic revealed the arrogant and contemptuous behaviour of leading scientific figures, aided by prominent academic journals, patsy journalists and weak politicians." unherd.com/2025/01/chinas…
@ianbirrell I suggest one correction @ianbirrell please replace 'despite' with 'because of':
WHO "hired Sir Jeremy Farrar, despite the former Wellcome Trust boss’s exposure as a central player in... branding any suggestions Covid could have come from a laboratory as conspiracy theory."
@ianbirrell On Feb 19, 2020, the authors of Proximal Origin realized that Jeremy Farrar - who had convened them and led their efforts - had signed the Lancet letter by Daszak condemning all lab #OriginOfCovid as conspiracy theories.
5 years ago, the authors of Proximal Origin wondered where the pandemic virus had been transmitting *intensely* so that it gained a furin cleavage site and passed it on.
One said, "No way the selection could occur in the market. Too low a density of mammals." #OriginOfCovid
Until today, there has been no reported sign of intense transmission of the virus in animals prior to the detected outbreak in Wuhan.
Investigators, including one Proximal Origin author, searched fur farms in China - no sign of any SARS-like virus. nature.com/articles/s4158…
On the other hand, a 2018 research proposal surfaced, showing Wuhan and US scientists with a plan to insert novel furin cleavage sites into novel SARS-like viruses. theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor…
"5% chance that H5N1 starts a sustained pandemic in humans in the next year. 50% chance that H5N1 starts a sustained pandemic in humans in the next twenty years..."
@slatestarcodex In addition, under the new US gov policy on research that enhances the pandemic potential of pathogens, it will be the funding recipient (not the funder) who is responsible for flagging their own federally funded projects for review. liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Peter Daszak, who partnered with the Wuhan lab that likely caused the pandemic and is being debarred by HHS, continues to chair @NASEM_Health's forum on microbial threats.
@NASEM_Health @theNASEM The event disclaimer and website make no mention of Daszak's involvement in this event or any conflicts of interest.
@NASEM_Health @theNASEM This echoes Daszak's behind-the-scenes coordination of the infamous letter in @TheLancet casting lab #OriginOfCovid as a conspiracy theory without disclosing his conflicts of interest.
In 2020, leading virologists deceived a @nytimes journalist, resulting in NYT dropping the lab leak hypothesis.
Years later, these virologists continue to deny their perfidy while attacking experts like @sigridbratlie who call out their deception. telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/0…
@nytimes @sigridbratlie At the @USFHealth Covid meeting, natural #OriginOfCovid proponents exalted one of these virologists.
Thankfully @ewinsberg read out the slack messages of these virologists which completely contrasted with their public stance.
@nytimes @sigridbratlie @USFHealth @ewinsberg Some consider the lies of leading virologists as indirect evidence for a lab #OriginOfCovid e.g. see the end of this anonymous analysis on youtube.
Why are some smart virologists making so many claims they should know are false?
I gave a 15min talk on a likely laboratory #OriginOfCovid at @USFHealth's @HdxAcademy meeting on hotly debated Covid topics earlier this month. The exchange with natural origin proponents and Q&A are worth watching. The recording is available now: digitalcommons.usf.edu/usfcovid/2024/…
@USFHealth @HdxAcademy The meeting covered other topics including lockdowns, vaccines, and public health messaging. I left the meeting with my mind changed on one topic - a sign of high quality scientific exchanges on issues that remain unresolved.
@USFHealth @HdxAcademy Several talks recalled the panic in the early days of the pandemic, especially in hospitals overwhelmed by covid cases. In crisis, public health decisions & messaging were often developed in echo chambers and not based on science.