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Ray Dalio Profile picture
@RayDalio
Mar 24, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
I’ve systematized my study of bubbles over time into a “bubble indicator” based on six influences, which are combined into gauges. We do this for each stock that we are looking at Image
then these gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. This chart shows the aggregate reading derived by combining these gauges into one reading for the stock market going back to 1910.
It shows how the conditions stack up today for US equities in relation to past times. In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.
In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929, this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read. If you’re interested in learning more, you can read my thoughts on the topic here: linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock…

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More from @RayDalio

Ray Dalio Profile picture
Apr 5, 2023
Trainees must be open-minded; the process requires them to suspend their egos while they discover what they are doing well and what they are doing poorly and decide what to do about it. #principleoftheday (1/4) Image
The trainer must be open-minded as well, and it's best if at least two believable trainers work with each trainee in order to triangulate their views about what the trainee is like. (2/4)
This training is an apprentice relationship; it occurs as the trainer and trainee share experiences, much like when a ski instructor skis alongside his student. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Ray Dalio Profile picture
Apr 4, 2023
The evolutionary process is about discovering people's likes and dislikes as well as their strengths and weaknesses; it occurs when people are put into jobs they are likely to succeed at, but in which they have to stretch themselves. #principleoftheday (1/8) Image
Each person's career will evolve based on what we all learn about what the person is like. They should be given enough freedom to learn and think for themselves while being coached so they are prevented from making unacceptable mistakes. (2/8)
The feedback they receive should help them reflect on whether their problems are the kind that can be resolved by additional learning or stem from natural abilities that are unlikely to change. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Ray Dalio Profile picture
Apr 3, 2023
I'm up for auction. Let me clarify. The Council for Economic Education and I share the goal of helping young people and adults understand money and economics. We believe this skill that is fundamental to their well-being is neglected. (1/4)
CEE works with K-12 students, their families and teachers through their teaching and I work with everyone who wants to gain that knowledge through my books, video and social media. (2/4)
To raise money they are auctioning me—or more precisely a lunch with me—in New York City for the winning bidder and up to two guests. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Ray Dalio Profile picture
Mar 17, 2023
Idealistic people who have moralistic notions about how people should behave without understanding how people really do behave do more harm than good. #principleoftheday (1/5)
As a global macroeconomist and businessman and as a philanthropist I have seen this repeatedly in all those domains. (2/5)
I have come to believe that as well-intentioned as they are, impractical idealists are dangerous and destructive, whereas practical idealists make the world a better place. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Ray Dalio Profile picture
Mar 16, 2023
There are all sorts of jobs and they require all types of people to handle them. #principleoftheday (1/5)
I am frequently biased toward finding the entrepreneur type--a clever, open-minded scrapper who will find the best solution--and I have often been disappointed. (2/5)
On the other hand, sometimes I have found a master craftsman who has devoted decades to his specialty who I could completely rely on. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Ray Dalio Profile picture
Mar 12, 2023
People's personalities are pretty well formed before they come to you, and they've been leaving their fingerprints all over the place since childhood; anyone is fairly knowable if you do your homework. #principleoftheday (1/4) Image
You have to get at their values, abilities, and skills: Do they have a track record of excellence in what you're expecting them to do? Have they done the thing you want them to do successfully at least three times? (2/4)
If not, you're making a lower-probability bet, so you want to have really good reasons for doing so. That doesn't mean you should never allow yourself or others to do anything new; of course you should. But do it with appropriate caution and with guardrails. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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