Nearly one year ago today, @PublicHealthUMN released a COVID-19 model which projected COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota under a variety of scenarios - from prolonged stay-at-home orders to no mitigation - for the next year.

Here is how their model did against actual data.
As a reminder: @GovTimWalz specifically cited this model as rationale for implementing his initial stay-at-home orders, and by extension, all of the restrictions which have impeded the lives and livelihoods of Minnesotans ever since.…
Would Gov. Walz do it over again if he was given a model that produced the correct result? Or would he still rely on a model that was originally built by grad students in a single weekend?…
Model outputs are generated from the R code / Github respository here:…
Actual data from @COVID19Tracking and from federal HHS data:…
CC: @covid_clarity who has been on top of Minnesota data for quite some time.

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More from @malkusm

25 Mar
Tonight's comparison of European excess mortality.

Which country:
- Has had mask mandates since April 2020?
- Closed schools repeatedly?

Which one's health minister said: "We could have achieved the same effects and avoided some of the unfortunate impacts by not locking down"?
Left: Czech Republic
Earliest mask mandate in all of Europe (3/18/20)
Less than two months of in-person learning in many places

Right: Norway
Second-lowest compliance rate in Europe
Schools open since 4/27/20
Here is @USATODAY taking a victory lap on Czech Republic's early masking and high compliance in July. Their subsequent wave produced excess deaths which exceeded those in France and Italy, and fell just short of the UK.…
Read 6 tweets
28 Feb
On Jan 5, Dr. William Schaffner, infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt & adviser to Mayor John Cooper's office, told the Tennessean that there would be a post-holiday "infection surge [which] will trigger an increase of hospitalizations and deaths."

The opposite happened.
Link to article:…

Link to Tennessee hospitalization data:…
I'm no journalist, but a good question for Dr. Schaffner might be: "Why do you think the post-holiday surge you predicted never came, and what have you learned since you made that prediction?"

While we're at it, we can ask about the statements he gave to TIME on masks in March!
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
Could anyone at @NashvilleHealth or @JohnCooper4Nash's office explain how we reportedly have less ICU capacity today than we did at the height of our winter COVID wave in late December, when COVID hospitalizations were 2.5x higher than they are now? ImageImageImage
Like, the only conclusions one can draw from this is that either:
- ICU capacity is completely uncorrelated with COVID infection rates and hospitalizations; or
- The city is changing the denominator in the capacity calculation to render it effectively meaningless.
cc: @tnnaterau @StacyCase_ @BrettKelman @flakebarmer - I've beaten the "hospital capacity metrics are completely the opposite of transparent in Nashville" drum for months now. But seriously - what's going on here?
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
Clearly, anyone who thinks school closures are doing great harm to children is just playing politics. That's why publications on the right, such as NPR, the Washington Post, the New York Times, the New Yorker, The Atlantic, and CBS News have all chimed in to support it.
NPR article 1 - in which they have the audacity to suggest that schools are not contributing to spread and that "going to school is really vital for children." What a Trumpian statement.…
NPR article 2 - in which they relay a vast right-wing conspiratorial talking point that 3 million children have gone missing amidst the pandemic, with school closures as a culprit. Is this responsible journalism, NPR?…
Read 9 tweets
25 Nov 20
There are so many problems with this that I don't know where to begin.
1. No evidence is presented that infections are reduced by keeping schools closed. That's because there is no such evidence.
2. The number of children infected by COVID-19 is as irrelevant as the number infected by the flu - a number that we've never known, despite its higher risk of both death and long-term effects to children.

What matters is: Are kids transmitting to adults, to teachers?
3. The answer to that is universally "no."
Many studies, such as this one, show that children transmit the virus to other children well, but to adults on a much more limited basis.…
Read 10 tweets
17 Nov 20
THREAD: At the risk of beating a dead horse, I thought I'd compile all of the recent data and evidence associated with schools:
- Are they safe?
- How are other countries handling them?
- What are the costs of school closures?

OK, let's go!
1/ In an email to families, Nashville school director Dr. Adrienne Battle warned that schools may return to virtual learning for elementary students.
But she notes that "Nearly all the [MNPS] cases have been contracted outside of the classroom or school."…
2/ This echoes the findings of researchers & health authorities in the US & internationally.
Even Dr. Fauci has acknowledged that as of mid-Oct, despite 30 mil kids in US schools, "there has not been an indication" that this was driving community spread.
Read 20 tweets

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