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César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

Apr 6, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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@gaojian08

Interested in China's regional economic diversification ?
In this new paper in Regional Studies, we explore the role of relatedness, & high-speed rail, in China's regional diversification. The paper was led by lead @gaojian08
(1/n) 🧵
Paper: tandfonline.com/eprint/GRXBNTC…

We start by verifying that Chinese provinces are more likely to (i) enter related activities & (ii) enter activities present in geographic neighbors. These are classic findings in economic geography that we reproduce using Chinese enterprise data & firm financial data. (2/N)

Then, we compare these spillover channels. What matters more? Having related industries? Or a geographic neighbor that is already in that industry? We find that these two channels work as substitutes. (3/N)

Having many related industries, or many geographic neighbors where the industry is present, predicts entries. But having both is not more predictive than having one. As long as you have one source of spillovers (relatedness or geography) the other one is less relevant. (4/N)

Finally we look at the role of high-speed rail in accelerating regional spillovers. During the last decades, China's high-speed rail went through several acceleration campaigns, which should facilitate spillovers among nearby regions. (5/N)

These acceleration campaigns followed existing roads and rail lines (connecting cities which have been connected for thousands of years). So they were not designed to connect a particular industries (e.g. to connect advertisement companies in Shanghai & Wuhan) (6/N)

We find that regions connected by rail grew more similar in terms of their industrial structure. These findings, suggest that high speed rail contributes to spillovers among neighboring regions. (7/N). You can get the paper at: centerforcollectivelearning.org/papers
&
tandfonline.com/eprint/GRXBNTC…

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César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

Sep 28

Economic complexity theory uses math that is considered a bit “exotic” in economics, but is core in physics & computer science:

Eigenvectors.

So, let me explain how we can use this math to estimate the presence of an arbitrary set of economic factors.

The economic complexity index or ECI is an estimate of the factors present in an economy built on a simple recursive observation.

An economy is as complex as the activities it can do, and an activity is as complex as the places that can do it.

Complexity here doesn’t mean complicated or anything esoteric. It follows the standard dictionary definition of honoring the idea that economic systems are composite (production involves multiple inputs, capabilities, or factors).

Read 25 tweets

César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

May 17

Now that everyone is talking about the impact of AI on labor, here is a quick thread with some key findings from the broader literature.

TLDR; there is some evidence of both, AI enhancing and reducing gaps among low- and high-performers.

Pull the thread to learn more 🧵👇

A recent classic is the paper by Noy and Zhang in Science from 2023.

These scholars asked 100s of college educated professionals to complete writing tasks.

First, everyone took a pre-test, to asses their baseline. Then, they took a second test (randomized with or without AI).

The punchline is that those that did worse on the first test (x-axis) benefited more from using AI.

So AI reduced inequality (poor performers do better, good performers stay the same).

Read 11 tweets

César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

Nov 26, 2024

How will the recently announced 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products affect American businesses?

Mexico & Canada are key trading partners for the US. They represent 28% of US imports & 33% of US exports.

Here is a detailed thread on US-Mexico-Canada trade 🧵👇 /1

Mexico is by far the number one trade partner of the US.

It is well integrated into American value chains, especially in electronics and automotive.

This year the US imported from Mexico:

🚙 $31B Cars
💻 $28B Computers
🚚 $24B Delivery Trucks
/2

But there is a flip side to this trade.

US-Mexico trade is largely about North American value chains.

The US exports many vehicle and electronic parts to Mexico.
/3

Read 12 tweets

César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

Jun 20, 2024

New Paper 📄 & thread 🧵!

How big are the digital exports of the U.S. compared to Europe?

Today, trade flows not only through container ports, but through routers. In this new @NatureComms paper, we introduce a method to estimate trade in digital products by combining machine learning methods with corporate revenue data.

There is a lot to unpack, so let’s dive in! /1
nature.com/articles/s4146…

Digital product exports, such as purchasing a video streaming subscription from a foreign website, are notoriously hard to estimate because tech firms own foreign subsidiaries. Moreover, existing service trade statistics lack the fine granularity needed to track digital products. /2

Two years ago, with @ViktorStojkoski, @philippmkoch, and @EvaColl8, we started an ambitious project with the goal of estimating digital product exports from corporate revenue data. /3

Read 18 tweets

César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

Aug 2, 2023

**New Paper**
Economic complexity methods are popular tools in industrial policy. Yet, despite their widespread adoption, these methods are sometimes misunderstood. In this new paper, I explain & explore the policy implications of economic complexity. /1
https://t.co/BQ6xLOA8cMbuff.ly/3YjBFbh

First, why are economic complexity methods misunderstood?
A key part of the confusion comes from the predictive nature of these methods. The concept of relatedness, for instance, anticipates the probability that a country or region will succeed at an activity./2

So the knee-jerk reaction that people get when they encounter these methods is to develop a strategy that recommends what the method predicts. These are the products/industries that would be easiest to achieve. But this line of thought is both wrong & incomplete./3

Read 21 tweets

César A. Hidalgo

@cesifoti

Jun 25, 2023

What is intelligence?
And how is it different from problem solving?

These questions are central in our current discussion on AI & were debated passionately this week at the Santa Fe Institute’s conference on collective intelligence.

But what did we learn?

🧵 .. 1/N

First, a disclaimer. In this thread I will focus on one idea, not all the ideas discussed in the conference, and will obviate other aspects of intelligence (eg multidimensional intelligence), not because these are not important, but because I want to communicate one point.

My focus will be on a distinction between intelligence & problem solving, because in my experience, when people are pushed to define intelligence on the fly they often gravitate towards a problem solving definitions of intelligence.

Read 23 tweets

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