$AMAT Investor Meeting has me feeling some sort of way.

Gary is bullish semis... quite loudly

Note the incremental revenue from each computing paradigm, as he pointed out

I know @FoolAllTheTime and @dylan522p are loving this
2/ If you all want to follow along... Data Generation will be lead by machines

"As you can tell, I have never been more excited about our future growth opportunities." - Yes, hear ya loud and clear
3/ Silicon by End Market Accelerating
4/ Silicon Spend per Capita Will Accelerate as Well
5/ Smartphone silicon content experiencing a step-wise change
6/ AI Driving New Compute Landscape
7/ PPACt
8/ The Importance of t... Cloud Revenue Comp

• • •

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More from @SeifelCapital

5 Apr
@marketplunger1 with a great thread here. If I may add a few...

$KLIC leader in advanced packaging equipment and answer to the hints I dropped last week regarding the company I wrote up. I didn't expect a 20% move since this quickly. Looks past its pivot.

Never chase stocks.
$KLAC

Leader in process control equipment with +60% market share, I am long $KLAC
$FORM

Just mentioned $FORM in relation to the massive growth in the probe car market in 2020 and expected follow-through in 2021. Almost actionable.
Read 4 tweets
12 Mar
🧠Expectations Investing - Calculating Market Expectations🧠

@mjmauboussin is one of the thought leaders that has most influenced my investing framework. His book "Expectations Investing" is a must-read for investors.

A thread on how to understand market expectations 👇 Image
2/ Mauboussin wrote a paper nearly a decade ago about understanding PE multiples (valuewalk.com/wp-content/upl…) from which I gained a deep understanding of the analysis below. I will elaborate more on this in a future newsletter.
3/ A critical component of my process, adopted from Mauboussin, is truly understanding market multiples and breaking them down into their component parts.

Through this, I am able to bifurcate company value into 1) steady-state value and 2) future growth value.
Read 18 tweets
10 Mar
How are you handling the current tech sell-off?

I just sent out a newsletter that explains the system I use for determining the current state of the market and how to invest based on the market environment.

Why did I raise cash recently?👇

seifelcapital.substack.com/p/how-to-deter…
1/ Have a Process

There is no single correct process for investing in the market. It doesn't matter which process you follow, what matters is you follow a process that fits your personality & style.

The rules-based process I follow helps me remain objective no matter the market
2/ Three Markets - How I Look at the Market

1. Confirmed Uptrend: Buy companies w/ extraordinary fundamentals, breaking out from proper bases.

2. Uptrend Under Pressure: Defensive positioning, rarely make new buys.

3. Correction: Reduce exposure / no new buys. Wait for a FTD👇
Read 9 tweets
26 Jan
$TSM: Fueling the Future of Computing

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. (TSMC) has become the leading manufacturer (fab) of semiconductor chips by capitalizing on a series of egregious missteps at $INTC

This is *not* a buy rec, but rather info for when it's actionable

A thread👇
1/ The Basics

The first "pure-play" foundry -> enabled the rise of the "fabless" (i.e. design-only) industry

A foundry ("Fab") manufactures microchips (integrated circuits "IC") for customers such as fabless chip companies.

Fab only = sole focus on better process technologies
2/ First Mover

The leader in chip mfg. is the fab that can get to the next “process node” first

Process Node (“Tech”): Used to indicate feature size of transistor - > now marketing tool for chip generation

As @GavinSBaker wrote in Jan '19, TSMC passed INTC at the 7nm node
Read 15 tweets
18 Jan
🚨Weekly Market Update #1🚨

I go through a daily and weekly process that helps me maintain a higher level perspective on markets and not lose the forest for the trees.

I use @KoyfinCharts for essentially this entire process - thank you @koyfman!

Time for a thread 👇
1/ Domestic Markets

Note: I look at many time periods for everything presented here. For convenience I show trailing 3 months in this thread.

Nasdaq outperformance vs. the S&P and Dow is narrower when compared to T6M. Over the T12 period, the Nasdaq has outperformed by 26%.
2/ European (+Brazil) Markets

Germany (DAX) has lagged both the French (CAC) and UK (FTSE) markets. Including Brazil (Ibovespa) here - it has been outperforming Europe.

The DAX and IBOV have fully recovered from the March 2020 drawdown while the CAC and FTSE continue to recover
Read 11 tweets
22 Dec 20
Data Bird: A Monster Growing in South Asia ("SA")

Data Bird ("DB") is building the Internet ecosystem in Asia’s fastest growing economy

DB will become the dominant Internet company in the country; the opportunity is similar to investing in a young Tencent

Time for a thread👇
1/ The Basics

Business Verticals:
1. Communication (Ridmik): #1 Keyboard and News app with 23MM MAU, 14MM DAU

2. OTA (ShareTrip): #1 OTA – 250K Loyalty Program Members

3. Ad Exchange (G&R) – Digital local exchange

4. FinTech (2021): P2P and micro-transactions
2/ The Opportunity - Bangladesh

GDP Growth: 8.1% (Fastest in Asia)

Population: 170MM people (7th largest in world)

- Internet Users: 50MM (29% of Pop)
- Mobile Phone Users: 120MM (71% of Pop)
- Smartphone: 46MM (38% of Mobile)

Middle Class: 20MM; est. double in 5 years
Read 13 tweets

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