My convictions & 7 investment thesis:
1 Category defining $LULU
2 Leader in secular growth $DKNG
3 Demographic shift $PTON
4 Technology paradigm shift $SNOW
5 Brand leader in an existing segment $ABNB
6 Disruptive - existing segment $LMND
7 Proven category, new segment $SE
1. Category defining companies e.g. $LULU, $UBER $ABNB are creating a new category. It never existed before. The TAM is largely unknown until they make it up.
2. Leaders in a secular growth segment $CHWY $DKNG are sectors / industries that I believe will grow dramatically in 5-10 years for many reasons. These companies are the clear leader by revenue, growth, margins, etc.
3. Demographic shift $PTON $GMBL - these companies cater to the changing demographics in our world. Young people for e.g. prefer to work out at home, or Younger folks bet on eSports and not traditional sports.
4. Technology paradigm shift. $SNOW $U These companies are leveraging a shift in a new technology shift. E.g. Cloud Data warehouse with $SNOW and move to AR / VR gaming with $U. They are going to take share away from older companies like $TDC or $SONY
5 Potential brand leader in an existing segment: $ABNB $SBUX - everyone knows the segment and it is a big market, but no leading brand exists until these come along. E.g. Travel and $ABNB and Coffee with $SBUX
5. Disruptive companies in an existing segment: $LMND in insurance or $ROOT in insurance. These companies threaten the existing players by going after their margins, or their lack of customer service, etc. Another example $NFLX and $BB (Blockbuster)
7. Proven category in a new market / country / segment E.g. $CPNG for eCommerce in Korea, or $HUBS - marketing tools for SMB
These companies are taking an existing playbook from a leader i.e. $CPNG - $AMZN or $HUBS - $CRM and adapting it for a new region (Korea) or segment (SMB)
The companies I provided are just examples. There are many such companies in each category.

I was trying to explain my thesis based approach.

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More from @mukund

4 Apr
$XM Qualtrics - a deep dive thread

SaaS company focused on the $60B "Experience Management" market that went IPO in Jan 2021

Stock price: $32.43
MCap: $16.58B
Vol avg: 2.5M
52WKL::52WKH $32.31 – $57.28
EV/2020 Sales - 35X
EV/2021 Sales - 29X
2020 FCF - ($114M)
#research
$XM overview: Experience Management is measuring and managing your constituents journey with the company/products.

Qualtrics provides CustomerX, EmployeeX, ProductX and BrandX - experience management.

In simple words they started with "survey" software
$XM Experience management is a $60B global and within that Customer experience in the US is $9B, growing at 8% annually.

The market has many diverse competitors including $MDLA (Customer Experience alone) and $SVMK (SMB)
Read 22 tweets
31 Mar
Sales and Marketing SaaS companies comparison: $CRM $ADBE $HUBS $ZI $MDLA and $SPT
I own $CRM and $ZI
First I compare 2021 Growth and 2021 Equity value to NTM Multiples

$ZI growing fast, (smaller base however) Image
$ADBE $CRM $HUBS $ZI $MDLA and $SPT - Looking at Gross Margins:

Amazing to see correlation between EV / NTM and GM% - more than growth

It may seem obvious but higher GM% (even with smaller growth) is valued higher Image
$ADBE $ZI $CRM $HUBS $SPT $MDLA - Looking at Operating Margins

I gather from this that $SPT and $MDLA will struggle to "take off" for the next few Qs until they prove their OM% are comparable. Image
Read 5 tweets
30 Mar
All ecommerce companies. Valuation Multiple (next twelve months) against growth

To the left and higher is better.

$OZON $PDD $SE $CPNG $MELI $STIC $CHWY $BZUN $BAB $SHOP $FTCH $JMIA $WISH $ETSY $JD $AMZN $SFIX $W Image
View of 2020 Rev, Growth, 2021 Rev and Multiple. Sorted by Market Cap

$OZON $PDD $SE $CPNG $MELI $STIC $CHWY $BZUN $BAB $SHOP $FTCH $JMIA $WISH $ETSY $JD $AMZN $SFIX $W Image
Sorted by cheapest (top) to most expensive - 2021 multiple
$OZON $PDD $SE $CPNG $MELI $STIC $CHWY $BZUN $BAB $SHOP $FTCH $JMIA $WISH $ETSY $JD $AMZN $SFIX $W Image
Read 4 tweets
29 Mar
$COUR: Coursera IPO - a thread on the MOOC Massively Open Online Courses, an online learning platform start trading as a public company on Wednesday, March 31.
Selling 15.73mn shares, at $30 to $33. Market cap ranging from ~$5B to $5.5B
$COUR provides online education globally. partners with 200+ educational institutions.

Top domains or topics on Coursera are Data Science, Technology, and Business.

220mn enrollments to date, and there were 77mn registered users as of Dec 31, 2020
$COUR will raise $540M in the IPO valuing it at 6X to 7X '22E and MCap of $5 - $5.5B

Coursera generated $184mn and $294mn in revenues during 2019 and 2020, growing 59% YoY

Growth has picked up from 37% to 67% YoY due to Covid
Read 6 tweets
29 Mar
$COMP - Compass real estate, My IPO notes
The Largest Residential Real Estate Broker, will start trading as a public company on Thursday, April 1
The largest residential U.S. real estate brokerage firm by gross transaction value (>$150bn in 2020)

Sell up to 36mn shares, IPO pricing range of $23 to $26 per share implies a market cap ranging from $10B to $12B
First the risks:
Low-margin brokerage business,
Significant cash burn,
Execution risk because of growth by acquisitions,
Competitive landscape.
Read 12 tweets
27 Mar
Important facts about $PATH (UiPath) from their IPO S1 filing

$PATH is based in New York, has raised around $1.2B in funding and is backed by Coatue and Accel. It most recently raised money with a $225 million Series E
$PATH saw 81% revenue growth year over year, and $607.6M in revenue for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31 2021

The company also became cash-flow positive in 2020, as net losses fell from $519.9M in 2020 to $92.3M in 2021.
$PATH was founded in 2005, UiPath says it has nearly 8,000 customers, including Amazon, Bank of America and Uber.

Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bank of America Securities and Credit Suisse are the lead underwriters
Read 7 tweets

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