One piece of misinformation coming soon to watch for -- there will soon be stories about stalling vaccination rates, and that will be true. But a lot of publications will use the percentage of total population vaxxed as the number, and that will be deceptive.
What you want to keep in mind is that if every adult in the country was vaccinated, that would be 75% of the population.
Long term the denominator should be the entire population. But because there is not current effort to vaccinate children, anything talking about how the vaccination *effort* is going should be using with 16+ or 18+ as the denominator.
Take this for example, it looks like only 33% of the Washington State population has gotten its first dose. And that's true about the long-term goal but skews the picture of the near term goal.
The total population is 7.6 million, which works out to that percentage. And 33% is not bad. But that's not the right denominator for the current effort.
It's hard to get a good 16+ population number, but about 21% of the state is under 18 according to the census bureau. That leaves about 6 million adults.
This may seem like small change, but when you plug that in as the denominator it's not 33% who have had their first dose. It's 42%. That's a substantial difference, especially when the final phase hasn't opened yet!
This is important partially because understanding where rates start to slow down is going to be important to guess where adoption rates will end up. And the number to watch there is vax/adult_population not over general population.

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More from @holden

30 Mar
The mark of the beast has been so many things I've lost count. Back in the 1980s it was bar codes, for instance (From an early 1980s evangelical pamphlet, more here: archive.org/details/brubak…)
However, I think a more worrisome aspect of the whole "vaccine passport" rhetoric is that it plugs into more explicitly white supremacist, Turner Diaries narrative, if @RightWingWatch or @DavidNeiwert or @MelissaRyan has a thread on that to share it on that would be welcome.
I feel like -- just as with the gun registration database thing -- reporters aren't grasping the conversation under the conversation here, so much of it from long-standing intersections of white supremacist mythology, millenarianism, and political opportunism.
Read 7 tweets
30 Mar
One of the things this GAN-spotting of supposed Amazon astroturfers who are actually likely to be chan folks pretending to pretend to be Amazon workers is going to show us shortly is a little knowledge can absolutely make you more gullible than none at all.
Conspiracy theory communities *love* an image forensics dabbler, and so do trolls apparently.
Nothing sells lies as well as convincing the listener they are in particular possession of advanced analytical skills.
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
One thing I've been thinking about lately is the plausibility judgements of experts. When confronted with an pressing question, such as whether a vaccine reduces the chance a recipient will spread a disease, judgments by experts are valued, but not well-expressed or interpreted.
Part of this is because there's really two ways to approach plausibility. There's "What is your confidence this is true?" and for scientists that often brings into play very specific lenses of what counts as evidence.
That lens is what Strevens in The Knowledge Machine calls the "Iron Rule of Explanation": arguments in science must be made a) empirically, and b) ...well, b is a bit harder to explain, but let's just say evidence collected should help discern between validity of alternatives.
Read 14 tweets
22 Mar
This footer comment from the @denverpost reminds me of a conversation I had once with @newsladykatie about police scanner communities on Facebook, and the ways in which they complicate reporting This is a developing story and will be updated. The Denver P
My memory of the conversation is that the constant monitoring of police bands + these Facebook groups created a situation where unsubstantiated rumor ran pretty far ahead of any ability to report reliably
That's always been a bit of the case with police scanners -- there's always been a rumor community associated with them. But you used to have to be tied to the scanner to plug into the rumors, now it's essentially crowdsourced and viral.
Read 8 tweets
20 Mar
Has anyone seen yet any evidence (any!) that YouTube's Wikipedia labelling strategy does more good than harm? I mean, come on. I raised this objection when it was first applied, heard nothing, and it just seems to get more ridiculous over time.
I mean if there is evidence, that's great. I'll take it. But it's very difficult for me to believe that taking a video that accuses people of being reptilian humanoids and putting a "Context" box under it named "Reptilian Humanoid" is bringing clarity to the situation.
Here's my 2018 criticism of it hapgood.us/2018/08/01/uni…
Read 5 tweets
19 Mar
Basically this. Please don't line jump. But also, even if you feel like your BMI + history of smoking should in no way qualify you for the current phase, if the govt says yes, then go get the shot.
In your political and civic life question the order and the priorities of the phases. But delaying your shot when your phase doesn't solve that.
And when you get your shot, if you got it fairly, be proud and post it, and there are haters in your comments tag me in and I will bury them in literature that says such public behavior has prosocial benefits around vaccine acceptance and will help save all of us.
Read 4 tweets

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