Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Apr 7, 2021 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
THE PYRAMID OF RISK

Bigger risks are infrequent; organizations that use them as indicators of problems will only react when it's too late.

Instead, by measuring the basis of the pyramid, organizations can spot problems before they become catastrophes.

Thread (1/N)
2/ In the 30s, a researcher by the name of Heinrich studied workplace incidents and noticed that for each death, there are many injuries.

And for each injury, many near misses.

And for each near miss, many unsafe behaviors.

Hence the pyramid shape.
4/ The pyramid of risk is one of the most important concepts that a manager must know.

Here is why.
3/ Question: imagine that over the years, the numbers of yearly deaths in a company is as follows:
1
1
1
0

Can we say that over the years, the company got safer?

No, because the sample is too small.
Maybe it was just good luck, and next year there will be 2 deaths.
4/ Instead, imagine that over the years, the number of unsafe behaviors (eg. % of workers without protective equipment) is as follows:
35%
35%
15%

Can we say that the company got safer?

Probably yes, because the sample is bigger thus more stable.

Hence the following principle:
5/ Trends measured at the bottom of the pyramid are stabler and thus more informative.

Instead, when you measure the top of the pyramid, you don't know if you're measuring performance or luck.
6/ Another principle: if you measure the top of the pyramid to know when it's time to make some changes, you'll guarantee a catastrophe.

If you assume that until there's a death your company is safe, you will get a dead employee.
7/ By the way, this is the mistake our governments committed in February 2020. They measured the top of the pyramid (COVID deaths) to know whether their country had COVID.

As a result, they guaranteed that there would be a lot of COVID deaths. They guaranteed late reaction.
8/ Instead, organizations that measure the bottom of the pyramid get a shot at catching a problem when they still have time to react and prevent a catastrophe.
9/ Of course, great organizations do not only measure the bottom of the pyramid.

They measure the bottom AND the top. The latter is necessary to prevent detachment from reality and to ultimately hold people accountable.

Measuring the bottom is necessary but not sufficient.
10/ You can apply this principle to your daily life too.

(examples below)
11/ If you measure your weight (the top of the pyramid) to know when to exercise, you'll guarantee that you'll get overweight before you react.

If you measure your amount of exercise (the bottom of the pyramid), you will prevent health problems before they occur.
12/ Similarly, as an author, I do not only measure my book sales (the top of the pyramid) but also my writing habits and the quality of my writing (the bottom).

This way, I catch problems faster and I iterate more – making my skills compound much faster.
13/ Conclusion: measuring the bottom of the pyramid will let you discover problems before it's too late and will let you iterate much faster – both of which are great for the long term.
14/ The top of the pyramid = lagging indicators.

The bottom of the pyramid = leading indicators.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

Jun 2
I recently got a small grant (courtesy of Kanro, Vitalik Buterin's foundation) to produce some educational materials regarding the pandemic response.

These 10 one-pagers are the first batch of educational materials.

Any feedback?

1/10 Image
Some more background about the one-pagers. They are meant for people who are already onboard with the need to properly react to an eventual future pandemic but don't have the vocabulary or examples to explain to others what they can do and why.

2/10 Image
A simple model to understand indoor infection risk

3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 20
What do I think an educated society means?

Nothing about graduation rates (literacy rates, yes).

Instead:
– Knowing what matters for society to work well
– Being able to find a value-adding role in society
– Having learned that personal improvement is achievable

Not banal

1/6
1) Knowing what matters for society to work well

Things such as:
– What brings prosperity?
– What did countries that were wealthy and democratic do (or didn't do) that caused them to become poor or totalitarian

Seems banal, but…

2/6
…we only discuss how good it's to be prosperous or democratic without discussing how to get there or how not to fall back to the default state (poverty / absence of rights)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 8
BEYOND THE CHECKLIST

A problem of many organizations is that they are aware of the needs of employees (impact, recognition, growth, fair salary, etc) but fulfill them as they would with a checklist: let's do this superficially, checked, done.

Some examples (& solutions) ↓

1/8
Example #1: recognition.

Many companies and managers know that employees want recognition.

But they fulfill this need in a very superficial way. With a small internal award, a certificate, etc. Top red flag: it's HR-driven and/or feels cringe.

2/8
The alternative:
– make it personal: it should come from the boss or the boss' boss.
– make it congruent: a moment of recognition followed by a year of no recognition feels (and likely is) fake.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Oct 5, 2023
Whenever we desire an outcome but not the actions that would make us achieve it, we end up with inaction, busywork, shortcuts, excuses, and, ultimately, frustration.

(a thread of highlights from the first chapter of my book "The Control Heuristic")

1/14 Image
You probably do not have a decision-making problem, but an action-taking one

2/14 Image
Decision-making is not the same as action-taking.
The cortex is mostly responsible for taking decisions, and the ~basal ganglia determines whether we act on our decisions.

3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
TIPS FOR EFFECTIVE DELEGATION

1) Minimize the chance of misunderstandings:

Explain:
– what's too little
– what's too much
– common mistakes
2) Explain why you need it done.

Not who asked for it. What it is for. What happens if it's not done. (And what happens if it's not done well enough.)

Tasks whose rationale isn't explained relevantly are done badly and/or at higher emotional cost
3) Pre-empt inaction and failure.

Ask them and yourself:
– Why might they not take action?
– Why might they take action and yet fail?
Read 7 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Footnotes are my favorite feature of my book Ergodicity (from which the screenshot below is taken).

In fact, there’s plenty of bolded text in the footnotes.

A few examples in this thread. Image
Image
Image
Read 6 tweets

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