Phil Syrpis Profile picture
Apr 7, 2021 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
One more go at the Irish border 'trilemma' (see @rdanielkelemen's Venn diagram) and Brexit.

The implications of the latest developments are very stark. Thread.

Image
1/
While the UK and the EU were in the same regulatory space (single market and customs union) there was no need for significant border checks between the two. 2/
Then along came Brexit. Over the years since 2016, Brexiters' position has hardened. Sovereignty and regulatory freedom were prioritised. And so, solutions which would have 'solved' (or 'de-dramatised') the Irish border issue were rejected. 3/
Membership of the single market was rejected. Theresa May's 'UK-wide backstop' was rejected. Few concessions to alignment with the EU were made in the (therefore thin) TCA agreed in December. 4/
That all meant that there was a need for a hard border between the UK and the EU. And a need for a solution which addressed the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland. 5/
Both sides were determined that the border should not go across Ireland. And both sides agreed, in the NI Protocol, that the de facto border should instead be between GB and NI. 6/
At the time the Withdrawal Agreement and the NI Protocol were agreed, there were hopes that the TCA would allow that border to be de-dramatised. But those hopes came to nothing. 7/
The resulting situation is problematic. As @hayward_katy explains here, the EU's external border now relies on the UK. 8/
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2021/03…
Worse, the UK Govt, and Unionists in Northern Ireland, have consistently misrepresented the nature of what was agreed. The PM breezily states that there will be no customs checks (and indeed no non-tariff barriers) - and people appear to believe him. 9/
He seek to blame others, principally the EU, for the emergence of barriers to trade; and to blame businesses for failing to make the necessary preparations. 10/
The real risk is that the border arrangements on the Irish Sea fail, and that the NI Protocol collapses. Some appear to be relishing that prospect. 11/
The consequences for Ireland seem not to concern them - though they should. The lack of concern for UK trade ('global Britain') and the UK's international reputation (eg with the US) I find almost impossible to understand. 12/12
PS - This was from last September (in the midst of the Internal Market Bill furore).

The paras at the end, on the extent of the commitments in the Protocol re GB/NI trade, seem especially relevant now.
ukandeu.ac.uk/internal-marke…
And see this damning appraisal of the Govt’s lack of effort to find workable solutions... amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Phil Syrpis

Phil Syrpis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @syrpis

Jun 5
Probably not one for the heat of the election battle, but for me at least, something which goes to the core of the damage done by this Govt.

It is about the Govt's relationship with the set of institutions listed below. THREAD 1/8
I'm thinking of Parliament, the justice system, the Church, the armed forces, transport, schools, local government, the BBC, the NHS, social care systems, welfare systems, schools, universities, utility companies, the post office, the National Trust, libraries, etc 2/8
It's difficult to know just how to describe them.

Perhaps... what used to be 'the public realm'?

In any case, they now have a range of very different relationships with the 'state'. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Sep 21, 2023
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.

TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.

He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.

Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 15, 2023
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.

But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.

Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
If there’s a unifying theme, it’s that people on the Right in the ‘culture wars’ want to act, and do act, as they please.

They do not believe that any negative consequences should attach to their words and actions. 1/3
They fail to see that their words and actions may have negative consequences for others, which those others may, legitimately, guard against.

It’s an individualistic mindset. And one which ignores power dynamics in society. 2/3
Johnson and Farage are two exemplars of this thinking.

They are used to getting what they want. And their instinct is to crush those who stand in their way. 3/3
Read 5 tweets
May 31, 2023
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.

This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.

BUT... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5, 2023
So much of the Brexit debate is the same.

People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.

And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.

Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.

And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.

That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(