Adam Profile picture
7 Apr, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Per @golfyare, today’s talks collapsed because @M_Farmaajo threw a new curveball by insisting that Gedo, his home region, should have an election process separate from Jubbaland. This has never been suggested before & would essentially amount the termination of Jubbaland State.
@M_Farmaajo also refused to budge on election security. Has refused to transfer election management to the cabinet, since he’s a candidate. Insisted that he will have oversight responsibilities over election security & manage the process. No incumbent has ever made this argument.
Where was consensus made on?
1. That the international community should be guarantors on election agreement.

2. @HSNQ_NISA & @TheVillaSomalia staff to be removed from electoral committee.

3. To broaden talks & include opposition & parliament/senate leadership.
On the surface, the above agreement sounds like a progress, but substantively doesn’t spoil @M_Farmaajo’s election rigging operation. Because, per Baidoa agreement on 2/16 @MohamedHRoble a key @M_Farmaajo ally will have final say on whether to change disputed individuals.

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More from @adancabdulle

8 Apr
Disturbing inside story of how shady US oil hunters & corrupt Somali officials came close to auctioning some of Somalia’s most lucrative oil/gas blocks. Strong resistance from the opposition & int’l partners scuttled deal by @CookePhoebe @Cabdalleaxmed…
“Meanwhile, the government would have taken a “signature bonus” of $20 million from the deal, just ahead of a planned federal election.”…
Unsurprisingly, one of the companies, is led by a former Republican congressman Trent Franks of Arizona.

Since coming to power, @M_Farmaajo, himself a Republican activist from NY, has surrounded himself with corrupt Republican characters such as Roger Stone & Michael Caputo.
Read 5 tweets
8 Apr
There’s a growing murmur, at senior levels, amomg associates of @M_Farmaajo to explore options to disassociate from the IC led talks at the Mogadishu International Airport Compound. Among the options being considered is to issue persona non grata to James Swan of @UNSomalia
James Swan’s predecessor Nicholas Haysom was also PNGed after he criticized the massacre of protestors by Ethiopians & Somali troops in Baidoa. Decision to PNG Swan is laden with considerable diplomatic & political risks but might be the only option left to scuttle IC led talks.
During the past few days, @TheVillaSomalia has taken number of steps to force presidents of Puntland & Jubbaland to leave the IC led talks. Protests were engineered in Puntland, Jubbaland officials in Gedo forced to defect & anti Jubbaland talks initiated in Mogadishu.
Read 5 tweets
6 Apr
Al Shabab has used a bulletproof SUV as a VBIED during this weekend’s complex attack at a military base in Awdheegle. This was stated by the governor of Lower Shabelle region who toured the area. This represents the first time Al Shabab has used a bulletproof vehicle as VBIED.
Given the undocumented proliferation of personal armored vehicles in Mogadishu, it was inevitable that Al Shabab would get its hands on them. Armored VBIEDs are particularly challenging to stop due to the lack of appropriate weapons by Somali forces to neutralize them.
But this should serve as a wake up call for the Somali government and it must document and monitor the trade of these personal armored vehicles. Left unchecked, Al Shabab will continue to employ such vehicles for high risk high impact suicide operations.
Read 4 tweets
4 Apr
How bad is the situation between @M_Farmaajo & the Federal Member States? After two consecutive days of meetings — punctuated by tense moments and back and forth allegations — to agree on election summit agenda, leaders took Monday off to cool down & regroup.
Given what’s at stake, if a breakthrough is to emerge, it won’t come from the leaders in that room. @M_Farmaajo’s ploy to both compete in and referee the election process is wholly unwelcome and meeting stiff resistance.
All recent incumbents have handed power over to the cabinet ahead of elections in order to make the process fair. An exception should not be granted to @M_Farmaajo.
Read 4 tweets
4 Apr
Almost 24-hours after Al Shabab dislodged government troops from Bariire, the town remains a no man’s land. While Al Shabab has abandoned the town, government troops yet to enter. Oscillating change of hands having enduring impact on locals and battle to win hearts & minds.
Per social media posts, at Bariire alone, Al Shabab walked away with at least 2 military trucks, 2 battle wagons & swath of ammunition and food supplies. Ability of Al Shabab to engineer number of complex terror operations within 24-hours quite unsettling…
No major movement against Al Shabab has been made during the past 4-years. Inertia has reduced gov’t troops to sitting ducks, living in perpetual suspended terror. Worse, Shabab continues to consolidate its grip on the Shabelle Valley at an alarming pace.
Read 8 tweets
4 Apr
While @M_Farmaajo repurposes security forces to fight his petty personal wars in Mogadishu & Gedo, Al Shabab escalates its offensive overrunning key SNA military bases, captures strategic towns.
During the past 24-hours, Al Shabab attacked 2 military bases in Awdheegle & Bariire, both in Lower Shabelle outside Mogadishu. Conflicting reports whether Al Shabab still holds Bariire town after dislodging government forces.
Both operations were meticulously planned and executed. When reinforcements left Mogadishu, Al Shabab attacked the convoy. It maintained the element of surprise and operational superiority throughout the battle.
Read 6 tweets

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