#take- #India #Pakistan #ceasefire - A thread on why optimism is myopic and a case of historical amnesia. It is a tactical breather by an overworked enemy, waiting for the next opportunity to betray India, as in #Uri. (1/6)
The #PakistanArmy isn't a homogenous fief of the chief, it's a complicated hydra whose parts compete for power and influence. The flip-flops by #ImranKhan point to the anti-chief sections of the army seizing the opportunity and squeezing them. (2/6)
These parts are manipulated by #China, and occasionally other sections of the army gang up on these turf wars. The sudden exit of the #gwadar authority chief is one example. With #Iran getting a Chinese lifeline, Pak is in a two-front situation with domestic separatism. (3/6)
The Pak economy is extractive, and the fruits of economic growth are cornered by a military elite. Greater trade and liberalisation only threatens the military's hold over this golden goose, and hence the whole show of #geoeconomics is a farce. (4/6)
#ImranKhan doesn't wear two hats, but a crown of thorns. He has no power over such affairs, and the structure of the Pak economy and politics prevents genuine rapprochement. Pakistan is weary, burdened with the #Gulf and #USA leaving it to Beijing's mercy. (5/6)
Pak will never be ready with military domination over all spheres. The Army's raison d'etre is protecting against the spectre of Indian invasion, corresponding with Pak's own founding myth. Till then, false starts and death by a thousand cuts. (6/6)


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