๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US consumer credit for February 2021

๐Ÿ”น Revolving credit (ie credit cards, personal lines of credit) rose $8.1 billion to $0.974 trillion.

๐Ÿ”น Increase was the first in 4 months, and the most since December 2019.
๐Ÿ”น Non revolving credit (ie student loans and auto loans) rose $19.5 billion to $3.231 trillion.

๐Ÿ”น 10th consecutive month of increases, and the most since June of 2020.
๐Ÿ”น Total US consumer credit for February rose by $27.57 billion versus $2.8 billion estimate.

๐Ÿ”น Highest gain since $29.225 billion in November 2017.
Combined chart:

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @MichaelGoodwell

7 Apr
๐Ÿ’ฅ 17.4% of American adults expect someone in their household to experience loss in employment income in next 4 weeks

๐Ÿ”น According to the latest Household Pulse Survey, based on responses collected 3/3-15.

๐Ÿ”น 39.1% of adults live in households where at least one adult substituted some or all in-person work for telework because of the coronavirus pandemic, based on responses collected March 3-15.

๐Ÿ”น 8.8% of American adults lived in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the previous 7 days, based on responses collected March 3-15.

Read 6 tweets
5 Apr
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China looks to rein in lending to cool property boom

๐Ÿ”น Small and foreign banks rush to โ€˜radicallyโ€™ reduce loans that buoyed Covid recovery
Analysis: In China's small cities, home buyers suffer as debt-ridden developers fail to finish projects

- "Bond defaults by property developers quadrupled last year to 26.6 billion yuan"

(April 2nd)

Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
Is the Hong Kong-US dollar peg about to break?

Well no, that's the sensationalist take. In reality, the Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to a narrow trading band between HK$7.75 and HK$7.85 per US dollar.

The 36-year old peg has withstood the test of multiple market shocks.

The HKMA buys and sells the currency at either limit to maintain the range. Buying HKD boosts it by reducing its availability and raises the costs of betting against the ccy. Sales do the opposite.

They also have $440bn in reserves - six times the currency in circulation.

Read 5 tweets
2 Apr
Archegos blew up when ViacomCBS dropped to a level not seen since... mid January.

A $10bn (or $70bn+ with leverage) hedge fund collapsed when a stock that they were exposed to through TRS on fell 50%.

Is this a sign of widespread fragility or is this an isolated case?
Couple of great explanatory threads/comments on the whole Archegos/Credit Suisse debacle:

Read 6 tweets
1 Apr
Is this relationship the most important one to watch for the economy and monetary policy this year?

It's ISM Manufacturing Prices vs CPI (% Chg. From Year Ago)

Are we going to see CPI following ISM higher, or is the relationship going to temporarily break, like in late 2009?
H/t @macro_daily for the highlighting this relationship.
Just as a follow on from this, long-end US Tsy yields - in this case the 10Y yields, seem to have a closer correlation to the headline CPI number, rather than the Core CPI number.

So we could see yields continuing higher, even if core CPI remains muted.
Read 4 tweets

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