Surprised $LGIH is not talked about much as a way to play housing.

Laser focused, well-run, differentiated, owner-operated, entry level home builder that has blown the group out of the water yet is still small relative to the opportunity set = lots of reinvestment runway.
The model is special. Unlike typical builders that rely heavily on realtors to bring buyers in, LGIH has differentiated approach and is 2/3 DTC = margin capture. It develops land away from big cities and doesn't have much customization = rapid inventory turnover and solid ROEs.
Oh yea, months of housing supply tell us housing inventory is very tight.
And the population of typical home buyers is inflecting upwards, with an additional sense of urgency being driven by common views that higher interest rates are inevitably coming.

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More from @1MainCapital

28 Feb
I have been bullish on housing for a while, but covid has just added fuel to the fire.

While some may think the recent housing demand is going so subside as economies reopen, I think we are in the early stages of a housing boom.
Quick reminder: after the housing bubble burst in 2008, the housing sector was hit with a double whammy: i) demand deferral, and ii) excess capacity.
Demand deferral is easy to understand. The economy was in the gutter. People couldn’t afford to go out and form new households. So instead, they lived with their parents (or roommates) for longer.
Read 14 tweets
25 Feb
How is $W not a long here?

I get 2022 comps will be tough, but they finally proved out their ability to leverage their way into profitability.

Less than $30bn EV seems small given the TAM.
"At only $14bn of revenue, we have captured <2% of our $800+bn (and growing) TAM. The opportunity in front of us is immense. There are many reasons why the winner in our market will have a disproportionately large share, and the $W team is as ambitious and aggressive as ever..."
$W - 8x revenue potential by 2030.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jan
$LMB thesis remains on track. I think mid $20's near-term is doable, with potential to go much higher in 1-2 years.

COVID relief package has been an added bonus, and an infrastructure bill will add even more fuel here.

For those new to the name, a more detailed write-up here:

Read 4 tweets
4 Jan
GS Tactical Fund Flows 2021 - some interesting tidbits:

We are set up to see a massive wave of inflows [in 2021]. The “January Effect” will be exceptionally strong this year. Investors are looking to buy the dips, but they remain shallow as there is competition for dip alpha.
Global stocks are now worth equal to 116% of Global GDP, the highest level since 2007.

AAIIBEAR Index “Da Bears” just logged a reading of sub 22.00, the lowest reading since January 2nd. The Bulls logged their longest euphoria reading since January 2018. Euphoria is high.
The month of January see’s a 37% of yearly inflows as a result of 401k and asset allocation rebalancing. Can see financial advisors recommending a portfolio shift back into equities given the current defensive allocation.
Read 27 tweets
3 Jan
PSA as we head into the new year: don't be Nassim Taleb's turkey.

A turkey is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.”
The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be a turkey.
Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.
Read 9 tweets

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