news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compon…

my personal thoughts (this is directed at HKers, where the cost-benefit balance is a lot different than in EU):
- blaming it on estrogens is nonsense. the mechanism by which EE predisposes to thrombosis looks nothing like the thrombotic events seen here.
- this is, very likely, a real effect. i agree w/EMA here.

[SPECULATION] tbh, a lot points to it being autoimmune. the fact that this most closely resembles heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, where cross-reactive autoantibodies bind Platelet Factor 4, ...
...& the fact that Spike binds heparin, definetly makes me wonder a lot. it's not a research topic of mine at work, but it's one i've spent most of my "free" time on trying to pin this down, & i'll keep this thread updated w/both news & any results i find.
- i actually think this is less due to the vaccine platform used (Ad26 vector) & much more due to the fact that unlike Pfizer/BNT, Moderna *AND* J&J, Ox/AZ encodes WT, *NOT* prefusion-stabilized Spike.
- this is a potential issue as (for example) an unstabilized Spike will spontaneously convert to the postfusion conformation. at which point *extracellular* serine proteases can cut it at the S1/S2 junction, leaving a soluble S1 fragment that can bind ACE2.
- i personally lean towards cancelling the Ox/AZ order, USING THE TWO LOTS OF THE PFIZER/BIONTECH THAT ARE SITTING IN A FUCKING WAREHOUSE BEFORE THEY EXPIRE, & ordering some J&J in place of the Ox/AZ.
- as always, anyone that has any questions is free to ask me. i will caution that at least some of this is still speculative. however, this seems too strong of a signal to be ignorable despite its rarity, & has all the hallmarks of an autoimmune reaction.

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