Thread by @BethKellySF

Hi Folks, looks like SFUSD provided an update on expected enrollment for next year - a drop of 1,884 students (-3.4% of total enrollment).

So let's take a closer look.

drive.google.com/file/d/1okcDi1…

The District projected a K-5 decrease of 558 students for this coming year. In the assignment process 419 fewer students applied to SFUSD, so the figure *could* be reasonable. The District will have better info tomorrow (the deadline for accepting/declining assignments).

On Middle Schools, there's a projected loss of 463 students. In the assignment process there were actually more students that asked for SFUSD assignments. Maybe the District is looking at historical trends (e.g. "If I don't get in to Giannini, I'm going private"). I don't know.

For high school, there is an expected 866 student drop per the Districts numbers. Again, this might be ("If I don't get in to Lowell, I'm going private".) I'm really not sure. But the District has the data and I don't, so 🤷🏽‍♀️

Anyway, the District previously assumed there was going to be stable enrollment and now that's not going to be the case. If the 3.4% loss of total enrollment holds, that would be at least a $12M loss of Weighted Student Formula (state) funds in FY 22-23.

But what is the BOE doing about it? Hanging out in the trees and weeds. And utterly losing the forest. Yesterday's Budget Committee Meeting? Totally meaningless. NO update of the budget figures reflecting the enrollment changes or the loss of in-person funding $$. W.T.F.

No word on getting five year projections for the budget. Nothing. I know staff is crammed with getting the massive budget pulled together, but SOMEONE needs to be minding the big kahunas.