Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Apr 10, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
New 🏴‍☠️Pirates of Finance episode out!

@JasonMutiny and I talk collectibles and have a special guest on to talk about the world of Scotch.

If you enjoy, please like, subscribe, and leave us a comment!

And if you don’t, let us know that too!

@JasonMutiny Some highlights…

1. UHNW investors have more money in collectibles than gold/precious metals.

(Are they just coming up with an excuse to buy what they want?)
@JasonMutiny 2. “What is a collectible?”

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

But it’s a pretty big and diverse space.
@JasonMutiny 3. And while prices did skyrocket in Q4 2020 for many of these assets, it turns out the long-term returns are actually pretty competitive with traditional assets.

(If you believe the numbers, at least.)
@JasonMutiny 4. Here’s a price graph of Lagavulin 21 plotted over time (scraped from auction site data).

It’s gone semi-exponential in price lately.

But you can also see March 2020 stick out like a sore thumb!
5. There are some interesting fractures in the scotch market that can lead to opportunity.

For investing, it might make sense to stick to the "blue chip" names.

But for those who plan to drink it, there are some other interesting wedges to exploit...
6. For a few of those ideas, check out BadaBing Whiskey.

badabingwhiskey.substack.com/p/welcome-to-b…
7. One of the big questions I have is, "how does the market change when you fractionalize ownership of collectibles?"

Not only are you introducing a new vector of demand, but the argument about deriving worth from physical ownership disappears.
And check out our whole channel if you haven’t seen it!

We’ve got episodes on NFTs, ARKK’s liquidity issues, reflation, solar climate effects, and social sentiment.

And if you have ideas or suggestions for topics, let us know!

youtube.com/channel/UCsfk9…

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More from @choffstein

Jun 20
the back story here is I was trying to run a strategy on a new crypto exchange.

with 2.5bp taker and 0bp maker fees, i was trying to execute all my trades as limit orders to reduce t-costs, but constantly found myself immediately underwater by 15-20bp. on both entry and exit.
the problem is that the exchange does, on average, ~$400/second in BTC volume. the median is likely $0/second.

so, if I put a $10k limit order on the best bid or best ask, the odds of organic taker flow hitting me was unlikely.
in reality, it just sat there until a market maker saw that the market price was 10bp+ away from where markets were pricing on another exchange (e.g. Binance) and then just trade through me.

so, I was just absorbing toxic flow over and over.
Read 4 tweets
May 23
Alright, so, I wanted to run some simulations to demonstrate the trade-off between short-term volatility and long-term certainty.

To start, I simulated out completely random* yield curve changes.

Below is an example evolution.
Next, I used these random yield curves to price out the return of two portfolios.

First was a portfolio where I just keep rolling over 6-month Treasuries every single month.

Below is the spread of annualized returns over time.

(I'll address the negative drift in a moment.... but ignore it; it's not the point.)Image
The second was an equal-weight portfolio of 7-, 8-, 9- and 10-year US Treasuries.

Note how the dispersion in annualized returns is minimized ~13 years... almost exactly 2x Duration - 1.

(See ) content.csbs.utah.edu/~lozada/Resear…Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 19
"The reward for accepting lower market liquidity is an increase in diversification benefits, rather than more profitable trends."
New research note from Quantica about trend following, capacity, and commodities.

👇
quantica-capital.com/publications/p…
Some highlights:

Only 10 commodity futures markets account for approximately 70% of all available commodity futures liquidityImage
Read 9 tweets
Mar 17
The team at ReSolve is out with some new research on multi-asset carry when applied to Liquid versus Extended trading universes. Image
In September 2021, ReSolve started trading a multi-asset carry strategy with a target volatility of 20%.

The universe includes ~70 markets (bonds, currencies, energies, metals, equities, grains, livestock, and softs).

Over the live period, they've realized a Sharpe of ~0.5 Image
Last June, they launched a variation on the strategy that trades only a highly liquid universe at 10% target volatility.

It only includes 26 highly liquid and scalable markets.
Read 10 tweets
May 16, 2024
In celebration of another managed futures replication fund being launched today, here's a little insight into a problem that both top-down (returns-based) and bottom-up (process-based) replication face.
Both of these approaches use the historical returns of an index.

The return of that index is driven by two factors:

(1) The underlying component weights
(2) The underlying component returns

Replication is trying to figure out (1), but (2) can be a significant problem.
Consider this hypothetical example in Trend replication land.

Bonds go through a year-long negative trend. Trend managers are, almost certainly, short bonds.

But over the last 30-60 days, bond returns have flat-lined, making the contribution to index returns zero.
Read 9 tweets
May 15, 2024
“Levered portfolios are subject to variance drain!"

So are your long-only active stock funds.

Don’t believe me? Read on.
Any long-only active stock strategy can be thought of as a combination of two parts:

- 100% exposure to the benchmark
- 100% exposure to a long/short portfolio capturing the over- and under-weight positions of the manager

(It's long/short portfolios all the way down...🐢)
How do we know what’s in that long/short portfolio?

Take the current positions and subtract the benchmark weights. (If the manager doesn’t hold a benchmark position, their weight to that position is 0%)

The resulting long/short portfolio represents their active bets.
Read 10 tweets

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