@JasonMutiny 3. And while prices did skyrocket in Q4 2020 for many of these assets, it turns out the long-term returns are actually pretty competitive with traditional assets.
(If you believe the numbers, at least.)
@JasonMutiny 4. Here’s a price graph of Lagavulin 21 plotted over time (scraped from auction site data).
It’s gone semi-exponential in price lately.
But you can also see March 2020 stick out like a sore thumb!
5. There are some interesting fractures in the scotch market that can lead to opportunity.
For investing, it might make sense to stick to the "blue chip" names.
But for those who plan to drink it, there are some other interesting wedges to exploit...
6. For a few of those ideas, check out BadaBing Whiskey.
the back story here is I was trying to run a strategy on a new crypto exchange.
with 2.5bp taker and 0bp maker fees, i was trying to execute all my trades as limit orders to reduce t-costs, but constantly found myself immediately underwater by 15-20bp. on both entry and exit.
the problem is that the exchange does, on average, ~$400/second in BTC volume. the median is likely $0/second.
so, if I put a $10k limit order on the best bid or best ask, the odds of organic taker flow hitting me was unlikely.
in reality, it just sat there until a market maker saw that the market price was 10bp+ away from where markets were pricing on another exchange (e.g. Binance) and then just trade through me.
so, I was just absorbing toxic flow over and over.
In celebration of another managed futures replication fund being launched today, here's a little insight into a problem that both top-down (returns-based) and bottom-up (process-based) replication face.
Both of these approaches use the historical returns of an index.
The return of that index is driven by two factors:
(1) The underlying component weights (2) The underlying component returns
Replication is trying to figure out (1), but (2) can be a significant problem.
Consider this hypothetical example in Trend replication land.
Bonds go through a year-long negative trend. Trend managers are, almost certainly, short bonds.
But over the last 30-60 days, bond returns have flat-lined, making the contribution to index returns zero.