Are there active studies on

1) What information people are internalizing concerning vaccines and transmission
2) How that impacts their decision making

Polling on this issue is all over the map and the polls are often poorly designed
I feel like now is a near-perfect opportunity to see how people internalize "official" information, with what frequency they change their minds, how they change their minds, what kinds of public policy strategies actually work, etc
Just about everyone is going to decide that it's ok to go to a packed indoor concert within the next 18-24 months

This is the perfect opportunity to see how and when opinions change. Do they change individually? In response to peer pressure?
Do entire social groups change their opinions "all of the sudden"? How fast is "all of the sudden"? Is it days? Weeks? Months?

Do groups split when one group changes its opinion while the other group doesn't? Do previously opposing groups band together when opinions change?
These are fascinating questions and usually opinions change over 5-10 years or longer so it's very hard to study this.

We could be studying it right now! Are we?

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More from @politicalmath

8 Apr
This is insane

YouTube is specifically censoring American politicians for *agreeing* with European scientists and policy makers b/c that agreement is rejected by the American left

dailywire.com/news/youtube-p…
Republicans and policy makers who do not have an *active* solution to this problem, a thing they are specifically doing right now to address it, are unmoored from reality and prancing about in a world of make-believe
I know I shouldn't be stunned by this, but YouTube is actively suppressing uncontroversial scientific information at the request of political actors in this country

That's weird, y'all! Stop acting like this isn't a monster scandal b/c it is!
Read 4 tweets
8 Apr
I'd love to see an analysis of trust, leadership, and the use of wiggle phrases

Phrases like "We're going to try to do X" or "we should be ready for X" or "We're doing our best to X"

I'm writing about COVID messaging and how it's simply filled with wiggle phrases
I'm looking up studies on re-infection and it's filled with excruciatingly slippery messaging

"We did not identify anything to indicate that protection against reinfection declines within six months of having Covid-19"

You could parse that in a much simpler way
That that sentence really means is: "We studied people who had COVID 6 months ago and it looks like they are mostly still immune now"
Read 5 tweets
6 Apr
I am so incredibly tired of COVID surges, I really would like to be done with this

Despite a 30% adult vaccination rate, Michigan saw a substantial surge last month. We hope it will break and trend down within the next few weeks

polimath.substack.com/p/what-we-hope…
The silver lining in the Michigan surge is that we are seeing substantial reductions in senior hospitalization, which I'm pretty sure are due to the high rates of vaccination among the elderly

Given this, we expect the death rate to be substantially lower
The other thing I wrote about was the 60 Minutes disaster

I don't know how to say this any other way:

Most reporters simply do not have the context to report their stories and the seem uninterested in gathering that context
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
I feel like I need to write about the 60 Minutes DeSantis piece, but that would require me to watch it and I'm struggling to find the energy for that
Part of my problem is that I don't really consume straight news anymore

There is no way to know if the news presented to me is true or false, so I don't see the point in even engaging with straight news
I mean... look at this bullshit!

@nytimes reporter @apoorva_nyc straight-up lied about a school and their COVID testing procedures

The school has all the receipts along with their emails begging her just to tell the truth.

Nope. Nothing doing.

newtrier.k12.il.us/Administration…
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
Suicide was one of those things that seemed to be a very reasonable concern, but it seems like it wasn't really a big thing

I kept hearing hints of higher youth suicide rates, but I haven't seen any solid data on that

I keep hearing (including from my own governor, Jay Inslee) that we need to do stuff b/c of a "crisis in youth mental health" and I really want to know what the hell that means b/c I've never seen that actually defined very clearly
I does seem like we saw an uptick in drug overdoses during the pandemic, but it is difficult to tell if that was pandemic related or basically in line with the overall increase in overdoses
Read 4 tweets
4 Apr
Been stewing over the MLB All Star news and finally came to a conclusion:

When corporations do this kind of thing, they are literally just another arm of the Democratic party

It is part of the Dem playbook to deploy their corporations to over-ride elected state legislatures
The difference is that you cannot out-vote the corporations. They are more powerful than literal governments and you have no control over them nor any recourse against them.

And they serve only one political party
That is the reality we live in

Corporate pressure is an intentional part of the political playbook for the Democratic party

They call their guys inside the boardroom and tell them what to do

There is no underlying ideology or morality in play here. It's pure politics
Read 6 tweets

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