1/ The most important tweet for everyone in Belgium - or interested in Covid @alexanderdecroo @PedroFacon @FatEmperor @NickHudsonCT @torfsrik @LievenAnnemans

These are hard facts to consider before you even dare to talk about our situation.
2/ We have proven in the past that Covid problems are seasonal, though Belgian media and "experts" have been embarrassingly slow to this discovery (initially they had no clue, now they know but cannot say it coz they claim "our behaviour influences the curve" etc).
3/ Below graph clearly shows that temperature and humidity are the main influence on the curve. This holds true in all countries except those with heavy air conditioning use.
4/ It is not clear why the seasonality works, whether the virus itself disappears or if it simply doesn't trigger the same immune reactions, with the immune system much stronger in summer months ("safe spread" would have been an idea but we settled on useless masks etc,…
5/ …vitamin D is likely to play a role in activating T-cell receptors).

But what I want to do is look at the development of the epidemic in the two seasons (we are at the start of season 2).
6/ First, we see the big impact "wave" (100%) which gets interrupted not by lockdowns etc but by seasonality kicking in. Unfinished work. Community immunity clearly not reached (too early), the virus (or its effect) disappears completely in summer.
7/ It returns with the arrival of the autumn season, with many susceptible people still around (arguably more than there needed to be if we hadn't weakened our immune systems all through summer with constant fear mongering and restrictive measures).
8/ A second peak is reached quickly (72% of the first peak) and then drops down quite dramatically and quickly (note that at this stage, only symptomatic people were tested...).
9/ The decline is markedly more dragged out than after peak 1 though, which points to some community immunity and some seasonality (virus seems to peak in spring and autumn, though isn't quite defeated during winter).
10/ Note that all through the December to March period, restrictions remain almost completely unchanged, and obviously people adhere to them less and less, though the curve continues to go down (media and "experts" should have mentioned "numbers keep decreasing Despite loss of…
11/ …discipline in the population"). This is the END OF SEASON 1.
It is very important to note that during the Entire Season 1, if you discount summer, deaths per week went down and only really pick up once we enter the 1-year anniversary.
12/ Now, in March 2021, exactly one year after the first "wave" started, numbers start to go up again, cue widespread panic, fear mongering and "vaccines are the road to freedom". Note that the current peak has reached 15% (!) of the first peak one year ago.
13/ You can see from the trajectory of the red arrows that it is highly unlikely, given the expected seasonal impact which is starting Now, that this percentage will rise majorly.
14/ It is therefore relatively safe to assume that once the viral impact returns in autumn (not even taking into account vaccines), there will be another red arrow going up and likely this will be to another peak just slightly lower than the current one, followed by another…
15/ …downward drag.
What we learn from this is actually not at all surprising if you like data and if you have researched viral impacts, which are always expected to come in gradually decreasing waves or Seasons, like throwing a flat stone into water.
16/ These curves also look so completely logical and natural that I would see them as further evidence that society destroying lockdowns neither a) protest the healthcare sector nor b) "flatten the curve" nor c) completely kill the virus which would be the Only Acceptable…
17/ …outcome which would warrant Discussion about such restrictions.
This graph also completely rubbishes the impression that is being created that Covid remains an existential threat to all of us and that its menace is constant, and only mitigated through hard restrictions.
18/ It shows a virus on its way to becoming endemic (arguably, which has reached endemic status) - and all of this looks completely unrelated to what we have done, or not done.
This graph is important.
19/ It raises huge questions: is there an emergency situation that would allow for the use of an experimental vaccine (one of the conditions for its approval)?
20/ Is there any acceptable reason for the restrictions on social lives, the impending arrival of "vaccine passports" and more importantly, the constant, relentless, inhumane fear mongering and berating of the very people that have elected our leadership?
I say, there isn't.

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More from @TB_TB_TB_TB_TB

6 Apr
1/ COVID is finished. A vitally important thread.

As Belgium has entered a third lockdown (which in itself is interesting as we were supposedly in the middle of a second lockdown), here are some observations and questions.
2/ Let's start with a thought experiment: You gather the world's best scientists around a table and present them with a new problem. You give them 2 min to offer a solution with the absolute minimum of information that they have. You write down that solution.
3/ Then, you give them one year to go away, inform themselves, read all the literature, perform studies, live experiments, hold conferences, enlist help from all available sources, study like they have never done before.
Read 35 tweets
3 Mar
1/ OPEN LETTER to the Belgian government @alexanderdecroo @GLBouchez @ducarmedenis @torfsrik @StevenArra All my friends on here, please re-tweet.

"Dear government, elected to act in your citizens’ best interest,
2/ With this open letter, I ask you to consider several points before you take the next decisions regarding your country’s handling of the “Covid situation”.
3/ Let’s make it less abstract than that: your decisions about how your citizens are allowed to live their lives (the people who voted for you, by the way).

I’m going to make this very easy to understand and very easy to digest and very easy to share.
Read 31 tweets
29 Jan
I have a dream that one day, a leader of the world will wake up and say all the things that are logical and heal us. Since they seem to be useless, I have written the speech for them. Please retweet it if you like it: 1)
2) "Society has been in the grip of a bad disease for a long time but we must look forward. We must understand the situation in its entirety and adopt new measures based on a realistic view. One year ago, we locked down entire countries because a new, scary, invisible enemy had..
3) presented itself. We didn’t really know how to react so we were really cautious and assumed that by creating minimal exposure to each other, we could protect you.
Today, we have so much information that it is possible for us to start living our lives in an almost normal way...
Read 21 tweets
19 Jan
(1) BELGIUM: @alexanderdecroo @GLBouchez @ducarmedenis Number of false PCR positives of asymptomatic people still high and obviously not showing right picture. Deaths way down and show the absolute uselessnes of mass testing.
(2) On top of that, overall mortality during expected winter resurgence not nearly as high as during first wave whatever the media may tell you. Excess mortality clearly above average for ONE MONTH in autumn.
(3) Graph missing last month so would be even more normal. The BE curve follows all models for new viruses that we saw ONE YEAR AGO. Measures have had extremely limited impact - arguable made the curves sharper and harder to deal with for hospitals (pp locked up = indoors).
Read 15 tweets

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