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Daniel Cohan Profile picture
@cohan_ds
Apr 13, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Back near $2,000/MWh on a mild spring day, with many of our power plants down for maintenance
Awfully tight for a mild spring day
Power plant outages have remained high since the February blackouts
ercot.com/content/wcm/ke…
ERCOT planned to have 88 GW of resources to meet peak spring demand of 65 GW with a healthy margin. Today it's struggling to satisfy 49 GW demand on a mild day, pushing prices near the $2,000/MWh cap (avg is $20s/MWh). Over 30 GW of "firm" power plants are down for maintenance.
Here we go again
#ERCOT #TexasWeather
Yesterday's tight power supply is being portrayed as an anomaly. In fact, it was tight twice last week too. Even with mild weather, 30+ GW of "firm" power plants is a lot to be down at once.
ERCOT has been reporting 32 GW outages, but not specifying where. EIA data show coal output has been peaking at 8.6 GW (out of 15 GW capacity), nuclear at 3.7 GW (out of 5.1 GW; one reactor down at STP). Most outages must be gas.
eia.gov/beta/electrici…
Power demand in ERCOT did exceed forecasts yesterday, but was by no means exceptional. Weather has been mild all week. Demand reached 49 GW yesterday, compared to 65 GW peak forecast for spring and 80 GW for summer.
eia.gov/beta/electrici…

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More from @cohan_ds

Daniel Cohan Profile picture
Dec 20, 2022
While we agree that the Texas grid can probably handle this week's freeze, I differed with another expert on whether ERCOT could handle a repeat of the February 2021 freeze. Here's why (short 🧵)
abc13.com/ercot-arctic-b…
From ERCOT's own seasonal assessment, supply would fall >7 GW short of demand if merely "high" peak load coincided with high outages and low winds (last column). But Feb 2021 likely topped ERCOT's "extreme" load case (73 GW) by several GW. eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
In Feb 2021, supply fell 20 GW short of demand, mainly due to outages at gas and coal plants. Power plant inspections & winterization will avert some outages. But with almost no new transmission, efficiency, or dispatchable supply, I expect a substantial gap remains.
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
Mar 4, 2022
The role of geothermal is something I grappled with a lot in researching the book. I came to see enhanced geothermal as potentially pivotal to decarbonizing electricity, and a technology that should be a top priority for RD&D funding. Here's why... 🧵 (1/)
For now, geothermal is a minuscule share even among U.S. renewable energy sources, and one that's barely growing and confined to a narrow region.
eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
Wind and solar for now dominate the growth of clean electricity nationwide, a trend that EIA's just released #AEO2022 expects to continue, with scant additions of geothermal. But there's a catch. (3/)
eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/n…
Read 25 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
Jul 8, 2021
Why ERCOT had a close call June 14-16:
1. Demand high for June (70 GW; T in 90s), but not for summer peak (expected ~77 GW, or 80+GW in heat wave)
2. Winds very slow
3. Thermal power plant outages higher than expected (~15% of 64 GW fleet) throughout month
4. Solar kept lights on Thermal and total unplanned resource outages in ERCOT, June Electricity demand in ERCOT, June 2021, from EIA Hourly GridERCOT power output by source, from EIA Hourly Grid Monitor
ERCOT's summer assessment of resource adequacy unrealistically expects to get 95% output from its 64 GW thermal fleet during summer peak demand. But outages have stayed ~10-15+%, and output is often below 90% even at plants that don't report outages.
As I noted here, 20 GW of ERCOT's 64 GW thermal + hydro fleet is >40 years old, and 30 GW is >30 years old. Expecting 95% output from it when we need it most seems like wishful thinking, especially given recent levels of outages.
Read 11 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
Jul 7, 2021
Governor Abbott’s letter to the PUC will actually make Texas electricity costlier and less reliable, while skewing the playing field to favor aging thermal power plants over new renewables. Here’s why… 🧵
texastribune.org/2021/07/06/tex…
1. Abbott wants subsidies for development & maintenance of coal, nuclear & gas plants. But no one wants to build costly new coal & nuclear. Better maintenance is indeed needed as thermal plants suffer 3x expected outages; that’s a cost of doing business, not cause for subsidies.
2. Abbott also asks PUC to impose new costs on wind and solar. But those are what developers want to build because they’re the cheapest and cleanest options, and corporate consumers are increasingly demanding clean electricity.
Read 9 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
Jun 16, 2021
ERCOT debuted "extreme scenarios" in its summer SARA, but downplayed them without justification as "1-in-100" events. In fact, power plant outages are double their worst case and wind output low. Solar has saved us this week, but the grid seems unready for an August heat wave.
It also seems erroneous to call Uri a one-in-100 event, as shown in this research by my colleague Prof. James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
cee.rice.edu/news/was-febru…
So far, demand hasn't topped 70 GW (and fortunately stayed below forecasts today), but it could reach 80 GW in an August heat wave. We'll need most power plants back online and perhaps a few new solar farms to handle that.
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Cohan Profile picture
Jun 13, 2021
Solar keeping the lights on in ERCOT today. Unusually tight and pricy for a warm but unexceptional June weekend afternoon, with winds slow. ImageImageImage
I’m seeing tweets of brief power outages in parts of Texas today as supply got tight and prices spiked. Does anyone have details on that?
Potential projected capacity shortage Monday, June 14 Image
Read 4 tweets

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