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Shawn Donnan Profile picture
@sdonnan
Apr 17, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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One of the fascinating things is how rarely people challenge those who say that the Trump steel and aluminum tariffs created/saved jobs in that industry... The American steel industry was shedding jobs even before this pandemic... data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
In January 2020 the US primary metals industry employed 5,000 fewer people than it did in January 2016, When Trump took office...
The primary metals industry in March of this year employed 30k fewer people than in March of last year.

One reason for that is a slashing of capacity that has happened in the steel industry.
That lack of capacity and supply has driven up domestic steel prices. Which means even with the tariffs it’s cheaper to import steel than buy domestically-produced metal, as @JoeDeaux wrote here:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It’s also worth pointing out that it’s very unlikely that jobs are going to come back in a hurry at big legacy steel mills in places like Indiana and Michigan that US Steel has shut down in recent years.
Oops. Got that wrong... Trump took office in January 2017, of course...
Obviously got that wrong re comparison to Jan 2016. But the relevant period is really what happened after tariffs went into place in 2018.

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More from @sdonnan

Shawn Donnan Profile picture
Mar 12, 2022
If or when the Fed raises rates next week it will close a remarkable wealth event. Over past 2 years $5 trillion in mortgages have been refinanced at interest rates that hit historical lows.

So we asked: Who had access to that wealth event?

bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-…
The answer, we quickly determined, is that White homeowners had a much easier time than Black or Hispanic ones refinancing. But as my Bloomberg colleague @annjychoi dived into the data one bank kept popping up as an outlier in the industry: Wells Fargo.
The data was pretty stark. Wells Fargo was the only major lender to reject more Black applicants who completed refi applications in 2020 than it accepted. It’s behavior was also at odds with an industry trend. Most other lenders have gotten better over the 10 years before…
Read 12 tweets
Shawn Donnan Profile picture
Jan 20, 2022
Tech company ID.me is rapidly becoming a gatekeeper for Americans trying to access government services online from the IRS to Social Security and unemployment insurance. The question is: Should a for-profit company even be in that role?

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
ID.me verifies your identity using a mixture of things like selfies and facial recognition software and scans of documents. It says it now has more than 68 million registered users and is adding more at the rate of ~145,000 a day.

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
That number seems likely to grow as agencies like the IRS expand their use of ID.me, requiring it for anyone setting up an online account. The thing is signing up isn’t always easy, as @briankrebs discovered when he tried to sign up.

krebsonsecurity.com/2022/01/irs-wi…
Read 7 tweets
Shawn Donnan Profile picture
Nov 19, 2021
Dems seem likely to vote on @POTUS' $1.6tn #BuildBackBetterAct today. One thing missing: Reform of the unemployment system.

Why does that matter? @economics dived into what happened in Georgia to 2.25m claims filed in the first year of the pandemic.

bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-…
The data we got show Black workers were more likely than White ones to be denied unemployment benefits in Georgia. As much as twice as likely...

bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-…
Georgia’s labor force has roughly 2x as many White workers as Black ones. But more Black workers filed for unemployment than White ones.

In the end 35% of the >900k Black workers who applied for help in the year after March 2020 did not get any.
Read 14 tweets
Shawn Donnan Profile picture
Jun 25, 2021
We don’t talk enough about those who fell through the cracks in this pandemic.

People like Barb Ashbrook, Ray Rand, Ralph Wyncoop and Anthony Barela.

They and 9m others didn’t get the help needed, as my @economics colleague @readep & I write for @BW:

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
We spent months gathering data and talking to people, experts, lawyers & officials around America. It was sobering. Half the 64.3m people who applied for regular unemployment – the system left after this crisis – didn’t get benefits. That’s 2x denial rate in the Great Recession.
Special programs rushed into existence by Congress filled part of that gap. At least 16.7m people got Pandemic Unemployment Assistance for gig workers, contractors, & others not otherwise eligible.

But millions got left out.

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Read 18 tweets
Shawn Donnan Profile picture
Apr 7, 2021
We need to talk about the middle class.

For decades the idea guiding business decisions around the world has been that of an ever-growing new middle in emerging economies.

Well you can add that to the list of economic truths upended by this pandemic.

bloomberg.com/features/2021-…
The global middle class - there's 2.5bn people out there earning $10-50/day - shrank last year for the first time since the 1990s.

And as @GitaGopinath warned this week that's not the end of the story. Developing economies are recovering far slower than places like the US.
As @carmenmreinhart told us the global economy is "bifurcating".

It sure looks like the world is pivoting from an era of economic convergence between the rich and poor worlds to one of divergence.

But that's not just a story about data. It's about people.

Meet Ravi Sharma.
Read 12 tweets
Shawn Donnan Profile picture
Apr 6, 2021
The challenge for the US here is that the US doesn’t set tax policy in other countries. And that policy makers in other countries don’t have to look back very far to see a very different message coming out of the White House...
And how do you enforce it? Here’s a reminder of how the EU’s efforts to force Apple to pay higher taxes in Ireland have gone: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 5 tweets

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