Fraser Nelson Profile picture
Apr 18, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
To (quickly) answer a few points on my Sweden column in the Telegraph - its strategy was to minimise all deaths. This meant the ones counted daily (Covid) plus indirect deaths, counted later. On Covid deaths, it's about the European average...
...by avoiding lockdown, Sweden sought to minimise (long-term) collateral damage on society & health. On total 'excess death' last year, it's a bit lower than European average...
...but the age of those who died is also a factor. Lockdowns risk deterring use of health service for cancer, heart disease etc and leading to excess death amongst the under-65s. Deaths in this age group declined in Sweden last year, but rose in UK...
...it's impossible to say if this was a lockdown effect, but to Swedes it's part of a jigsaw puzzle. The below shows excess death last year, adjusted for age....
...Sweden tolerates a higher Covid level than countries pursuing a strategy of suppression. This means Sweden comes out badly in Covid league tables: NB this one on current Covid levels...
...But Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, points to Sweden's lower position in Covid deaths...
...Tegnell makes this point in an SvD interview today. He says vaccination has broken the relationship between high case numbers and high death numbers... svd.se/de-har-hoga-do…
...but Tegnell also says it will take months - or maybe years - for the whole picture to become clear. This is NOT to say Sweden was right and UK wrong. Just that there's more to this story than a Covid league table.

Here's my column:- telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/1…

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More from @FraserNelson

Jun 3
I'm not sure Tories will win over many people when they use so many porkies in this short video... [1/4]
"Taxes are being cut" - no, they're rising and the Tory plan is to increase them to a 74-year high [2/4] data.spectator.co.uk
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"Waiting lists are coming down" - they may well do soon, but they aren't yet... [3/4] data.spectator.co.uk/health
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Read 5 tweets
Mar 22
Sunak’s furlough scheme was a lifeline , created at breakneck speed. It was a case study in how the civil service can innovate and launch a successful product for millions.

But as Sunak knew, its longer-term effects were deeply uncertain. Would it really facilitate a jobs bounce back?

Things are clearer now…

telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/2…
When it comes to post-Covid jobs recovery, the UK has done worse than almost any other developed country… Image
The dismal jobs recovery comes in spite of an unprecedented jump in immigration…
data.spectator.co.uk
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Read 5 tweets
Sep 13, 2022
One of biggest UK economic problems is exit of almost 650,000 workers from the economy since the pandemic.

Figures today show the number long-term sick (in red, below) now up 350,000 data.spectator.co.uk/category/labou…
The same graph, split by age
So the “jobs miracle” under Cameron - that saw a million more join the economy, took a big hit - and things are now getting worse…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 12, 2022
Is Sweden about to have a Conservative Prime Minister? Right now Ulf Kristersson's coalition leading the red-greens 176-173. Result may not come until wed svd.se/a/eEVAgy/valet…
Latest below - NB things can take days to settle in Swedish elections. But Conservative PM (a historical rarity) currently looks like the most likely outcome
With 92% votes counted, Sweden’s conservative coalition leads the red-greens by just one seat. So; too close to call, but Ulf Kristersson still has the advantage (even though his own party is now in third place after showing by the Sweden Democrats) svd.se/a/EQW8da/valet…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 22, 2022
Tech and capitalism have helped drive vast environmental improvements since the first Earth Day.

Here's six reasons to be cheerful:-
spectator.co.uk/article/earth-…
Take air pollution since the first Earth Day in 1970: a story of stunning progress
UK energy use since 1970: peaked 21 years ago
Read 4 tweets
Feb 13, 2022
Was Sweden right about Covid all along? Two years on, a look at the evidence (in today's Sunday Telegraph)

telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/1…
Sweden and UK are more comparable than many think: 88pc of Swedes live in cities, vs 84pc of Brits.

What matters with Covid is the concentration of people, not the distance between towns - as shown by Oliver Johnson et al: arxiv.org/abs/2005.01167
After rejecting lockdowns, Sweden's Covid hit - so close to ours first wave - started to stay significantly lower than for subsequent waves. How could this be, if lockdowns (in grey) made the difference?
Read 10 tweets

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