To (quickly) answer a few points on my Sweden column in the Telegraph - its strategy was to minimise all deaths. This meant the ones counted daily (Covid) plus indirect deaths, counted later. On Covid deaths, it's about the European average...
...by avoiding lockdown, Sweden sought to minimise (long-term) collateral damage on society & health. On total 'excess death' last year, it's a bit lower than European average...
...but the age of those who died is also a factor. Lockdowns risk deterring use of health service for cancer, heart disease etc and leading to excess death amongst the under-65s. Deaths in this age group declined in Sweden last year, but rose in UK...
...it's impossible to say if this was a lockdown effect, but to Swedes it's part of a jigsaw puzzle. The below shows excess death last year, adjusted for age....
...Sweden tolerates a higher Covid level than countries pursuing a strategy of suppression. This means Sweden comes out badly in Covid league tables: NB this one on current Covid levels...
...But Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, points to Sweden's lower position in Covid deaths...
...Tegnell makes this point in an SvD interview today. He says vaccination has broken the relationship between high case numbers and high death numbers... svd.se/de-har-hoga-do…
...but Tegnell also says it will take months - or maybe years - for the whole picture to become clear. This is NOT to say Sweden was right and UK wrong. Just that there's more to this story than a Covid league table.
Sunak’s furlough scheme was a lifeline , created at breakneck speed. It was a case study in how the civil service can innovate and launch a successful product for millions.
But as Sunak knew, its longer-term effects were deeply uncertain. Would it really facilitate a jobs bounce back?
Is Sweden about to have a Conservative Prime Minister? Right now Ulf Kristersson's coalition leading the red-greens 176-173. Result may not come until wed svd.se/a/eEVAgy/valet…
Latest below - NB things can take days to settle in Swedish elections. But Conservative PM (a historical rarity) currently looks like the most likely outcome
With 92% votes counted, Sweden’s conservative coalition leads the red-greens by just one seat. So; too close to call, but Ulf Kristersson still has the advantage (even though his own party is now in third place after showing by the Sweden Democrats) svd.se/a/EQW8da/valet…
Sweden and UK are more comparable than many think: 88pc of Swedes live in cities, vs 84pc of Brits.
What matters with Covid is the concentration of people, not the distance between towns - as shown by Oliver Johnson et al: arxiv.org/abs/2005.01167
After rejecting lockdowns, Sweden's Covid hit - so close to ours first wave - started to stay significantly lower than for subsequent waves. How could this be, if lockdowns (in grey) made the difference?