1/ This paper on #Covid deaths in 30 million Medicare patients last year has received no attention. It should have. One key finding: ~NO excess risk of death in Covid patients in nursing homes (Covid or not, about 25% of patients died over the nine months studied)... ImageImageImage
2/ Further, using case-matching (deaths in Covid v non-Covid patients) rather than comparing 2020 to a three year average of deaths reduced reported excess deaths from 131,000 to 101,000 - showing the sensitivity of the excess death count to different statistical techniques...
3/ And when the case-matching method was used, the researchers found that nursing homes in 2020 actually had FEWER deaths overall than expected. This cuts to the heart of the with/from question.

Of note, this was NOT true for Medicare beneficiaries outside nursing homes... Image
4/ Those people had a much higher risk of death with a #Covid diagnosis, and over 100,000 extra deaths by either the case-control or historical average method. Image

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More from @AlexBerenson

14 May
It is absurd for the Times to blame the “economic and physical strain” of the virus (which actually means lockdowns) for the increase in shootings.

A) Employers are DESPERATE to hire right now. Anyone who wants a job can have one... Image
B) The federal government has pumped so much money into the economy in the last year that many if not most working-class households are in better shape than they were (as are the rich). Only small business owners have gotten crushed...
C) The increase in murders is national, in states that locked down hard and had more job losses last year and in states that didn’t. An eye test suggests the biggest increases and/or highest overall rates are in cities that have recently elected ultra-progressive prosecutors...
Read 4 tweets
12 May
1/ @cdcgov @us_fda and @generaldynamics appear to be adding @jnjnews side effect reports into the VAERS database as quickly as possible -

While delaying the publication of reports about the @pfizer @moderna_tx vaccines.

The proof is in the data.
2/ We know VAERS has a backlog and that the number of reports in the system has risen hugely in the last three weeks.

But what is not clear until you parse the data BY VACCINE MANUFACTURER is that nearly all the reports from April are related to the JNJ vaccine.
3/ Right now, the system contains 27,769 reports completed in April. 20,125 of those - about 75% - are for the JNJ vaccine.

Only 3,193 are for @moderna_tx and 4,309 for @pfizer - even though those vaccines were given FAR more frequently than the JNJ shot.
Read 5 tweets
10 May
1/ Many questions of late from parents and college students worried about mandatory or quasi-mandatory vaccinations - including why they can be mandated if they are not fully approved, and why having antibodies doesn't provide an exemption.

These are great questions...
2/ I don't fully understand how an unapproved medical product can be required, but so many colleges have done so they must have at least some legal guidance suggesting they can. Maybe a parent or student will sue and force the issue; as far as I know that has not happened yet.
3/ As for the antibodies, the colleges are behaving no differently - i.e. just as ridiculously - as anyone else. Most studies now suggest both that vaccine and natural immunity are roughly equivalent (in the short term, we'll see about longer term, natural may have the edge)...
Read 5 tweets
10 May
1/ Meanwhile, get ready for this stunner: the US may already be beginning to see a post-Covid wave of LOW overall deaths (because so many people who died of #Covid were so sick they would have died within months).

I don’t think we can be sure yet, but the evidence is suggestive:
2/ The green bars represent NON-Covid deaths reported to @cdcgov by week. The data takes several weeks to mature, so let’s look at March 13 - eight weeks ago. 54,032 non-Covid deaths, down 4,800 (8%) compared to the same week in 2019 and about 6% from 2018 and 2017...
3/ The true gap is slightly larger since deaths "should" rise 1% each year as the population grows and ages. On the other hand, overall deaths including Covid are still above normal - we won't really know this is happening unless it remains true with Covid deaths close to zero...
Read 4 tweets
7 May
1/ I gotta new theory about the origins of the virus and it brings it all together!

The bats were mad at the Bat Lady, see. Because she kept bugging them in their caves. So they did a little light reading on furin cleavage and ACE-2 receptors and optimized spike proteins...
2/ And they got themselves some equipment, and they made a real good virus. Then they picked one heroic bat to stow a fast train to Wuhan and gave him special instructions not to infect anyone until he got close to the Bat Lady's lab...
3/ And the superbat did it! Then he came back from Wuhan. But he walked, so he wouldn't leave batprints in the air. He is now King of the Bats and sits atop a guano throne.

All to make sure the Bat Lady looked bad.

This theory is at least as plausible as zoonotic transmission.
Read 4 tweets
6 May
1/ We're now five months into the rollout of the #Covid vaccines - enough time to make some judgments of how they're working in the real world.

So let's talk honestly about the good, the bad, and the ugly. (I promise, no prion variants or shedding.)
2/ The good: At this point I think we have to agree the mRNAs are broadly effective at full protection. The Israeli and British data are too strong.

This assessment comes with two big caveats. Broadly effective does NOT mean 95% effective in the population most at risk...
3/ People are still dying in Israel (the equivalent of about 250-300 a week in the US) - and we are seeing breakthough infections and deaths here. Still, even 80% long-term effectiveness in the elderly would be a huge win for them and really end the death counting...
Read 17 tweets

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