1/ A smart new @cdcgov report on #Covid infections among Chicago nursing home residents this winter again offers evidence of a post-first dose infection spike. It also exposes the myth that vaccinations, even at peak effectiveness, end hospitalizations or deaths...
2/ The reason the report is so interesting is that these residents are routinely screened for #SARSCoV2, so the data does not have a bias against testing vaccinated people that could lead to missed infections in them (and thus an overestimation of the vaccine’s value)...
3/ In fact, @cdcgov did not make an overall estimate for vaccine effectiveness, because it didn’t have the days at risk for the vaccinated population (you need the denominator to have an equation). But it did provide topline data for infections and outcomes in four groups...
4/ And they are very striking. First, most infections occurred in the unvaccinated. But more than 20% of cases and ~30% of deaths occurred in people AFTER they received their first dose - the dark blue lines on this chart...
5/ Second, @cdcgov also helpfully provided hospitalization and death data for each category - vaccinated, partially vaccinated, unvaccinated. And the percentage of infected residents in each category who were hospitalized or died is roughly the same...
6/ In other words, at least in this sample, the vaccine failed to make #Covid cases more mild. BTW, @cdcgov went out of its way to tell us the vaccinated person who died had lots of comorbidities. Do you remember them doing that with anyone else who died of #Covid? Me neither.

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More from @AlexBerenson

23 Apr
1/ If VAERS is to be believed, blood clots may not be only problems with the @JNJNews vaccine.

Relative to the number of shots given, reports for overall deaths, life-threatening, and serious events in people under 50 are coming in much faster for the JNJ vaccine than the mRNAs.
2/ About 3.8 million doses of the @JNJNews vaccine have been given to people under 50, and VAERS has 97 reports of deaths and life-threatening injuries that followed the shot. Many are quite striking, like the 38-year-old who died at a friend’s house four hours after his shot... ImageImageImageImage
3/ 97 cases out of 3.8 million may seem small, but:
a: these are mostly healthy people
b: VAERS is backlogged
c: Side effects are badly underreported even when serious (as the CVST experience in the UK proves).

More importantly, we can compare the JNJ vax to the mRNAs...
Read 5 tweets
23 Apr
1/ Meanwhile, @CDCgov quietly reports its has now found 10 cases of CVST (very dangerous brain blood clots) in 5 million doses of the @pfizer @moderna_tx vaccines.

Even after the CDC excluded five of the cases, five remain possibly linked...
2/ Nothing to see here, @CDCgov says, because the CVST clots aren't ALSO linked to low platelets - the signature injury that made the connection unavoidable for the @JNJNews @AstraZeneca vaccines. Which I'm sure is comforting for the people who got them.

More importantly...
3/ As @CDCgov notes, these clots can occur in many other places. In fact, when it looked at a sample of 140,000 patients who'd gotten the JNJ shot in the same database as the 5 million Pfizer/Moderna patients, it found NO CVST cases. But it did find many other clots...
Read 4 tweets
21 Apr
1/ To look back at those crucial days last March when lockdowns spread globally is to realize NONE OF THIS HAD TO HAPPEN. Italy set the stage when it locked down March 9; at the time it had 9,000 cases out of 60 million people, and a few northern hospitals under serious pressure.
2/ It also had, on March 6, a physician in a hospital in Bergamo (a city near Milan that was the epicenter of the Italian epidemic) making a terrified Facebook post which caught the world's attention but in retrospect contains a few lines that should have been read more closely.
3/ In the post, the doctor wrote that his hospital was near collapse and that "each ventilator becomes like gold."

Yet the specific figure he cited for daily #Covid admissions was far less terrifying: "We arrive at a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason."
Read 7 tweets
20 Apr
1/ Yeah, vaccine protection against variants is nearly as good as a lil thing I like to call the human immune system.

Let’s be clear: Five months in to SARS-COV-2: PART 2, THE VARIANTS, we have precisely zero evidence that any variants affect the long-term course of the ro...
2/ And this has nothing to do with vaccines. Take a look at the course of the epidemic this winter in South Africa, home of the famed, umm, South African variant. Cases fell 95% from January to April. Ditto Ireland, where the British variant was a thing for a while.
3/ The variants are a useful excuse to scare people into getting vaccinated at a time when the ro is on the way out (except in places where mass vaccination campaigns are just taking off)... as well as to getting vaccinated again next fall.
Read 4 tweets
19 Apr
1/ For #Covid vaccines, shingles and even more dangerous and painful skin rashes may be the new thrombocytopenia. (Photos of Allen Luxenberg, now hospitalized in New York for lesions he fears were caused by his Moderna vaccination.)
2/ Israeli scientists reported over 1 percent of 500 patients with an autoimmune disorder developed shingles – a painful rash caused by a herpes virus – after receiving the Pfizer vaccine. The US reporting system also now includes many reports of post-vaccination shingles.
3/ Shingles is not usually deadly, but a handful of people have had far more serious skin lesions following vaccinations. Called Stevens Johnson Syndrome or in the worst case toxic necrolysis, these rashes cover most of the body before blistering, breaking open, and oozing fluid.
Read 9 tweets
18 Apr
1/ This paper on #Covid deaths in 30 million Medicare patients last year has received no attention. It should have. One key finding: ~NO excess risk of death in Covid patients in nursing homes (Covid or not, about 25% of patients died over the nine months studied)...
2/ Further, using case-matching (deaths in Covid v non-Covid patients) rather than comparing 2020 to a three year average of deaths reduced reported excess deaths from 131,000 to 101,000 - showing the sensitivity of the excess death count to different statistical techniques...
3/ And when the case-matching method was used, the researchers found that nursing homes in 2020 actually had FEWER deaths overall than expected. This cuts to the heart of the with/from question.

Of note, this was NOT true for Medicare beneficiaries outside nursing homes...
Read 4 tweets

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