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Ryan Watkins Profile picture
@RyanWatkins_
Apr 22, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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DEX volumes reached over $217 billion in Q1 2021.

This is up 236% from Q4 2020, and a whopping 8,012% from Q1 2020.

Uniswap continued to lead the way as volumes continue to rise in lockstep with asset prices.

A recap of the quarter below.

👇🏾
On a monthly basis DEX volumes reached a peak of $84 billion in February, once again led by Uniswap.
The biggest winner this quarter, and one of the more controversial DEXs, was PancakeSwap.

As BSC boomed in Q1, PancakeSwap grew its market share from to 37%.

The majority of the growth came from the middle of February onwards as Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem fizzled out.
Now of course categorizing PancakeSwap as a DEX is generous given BSC’s centralization - in many ways it’s more like a CEX than a DEX.

So let’s zoom in on Ethereum to get a clearer picture of well... actual DeFi.
Despite narrative of competitors chipping away at its dominance Uniswap extended its lead in Q1.

It ended the quarter with just under a 60% share of the market.
Quarterly DEX volumes on Ethereum tell a similar story to the lead tweet.

In Q1 volumes reached $169 billion - up 167% since last quarter and 6,233% YoY.
DeFi had an incredible start to the year.

In our Q1 DeFi report we walk you through sector by sector, in what was one of the most jam packed quarters in DeFi’s short history.

messari.io/article/q1-202…
Our DEX section of the piece features deep dives on PancakeSwap, SushiSwap, Bancor, THORChain, as well as overviews of next-gen AMMs for Uniswap, Sushi, and Balancer.

messari.io/article/q1-202…

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More from @RyanWatkins_

Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jan 27
The most reliable thesis for compounding capital this cycle has been to own fast-growing projects that people actually use.

Everything else is a game of musical chairs, with the dominant narrative changing every couple months, and Burj Khalifa charts that rarely bounce back.

This supposed shift to fundamentals everyone is talking about isn’t coming… it’s already here, but it can only be observed over the course of many quarters and years in the assets that actually compound.
The fast-growing part is key here.

Plenty of value traps in the cryptoeconomy or projects whose fundamentals are solid but don’t support the valuations.

Often times the strongest fundamental names tap into speculative activity for growth which many write off as “not real”
Have fallen prey to some of these situations before as we all have.

Takes introspection to realize you’re being too prescriptive about what should be driving growth rather than accepting what is.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jan 18
Regardless of whether the Trump coin is real or not, at $9 billion in 3 hours, it is already the largest onchain wealth creation event in the history crypto.
Goes without saying what this means for Solana if real
Will say though, I have mixed feelings about this.

Simultaneously a potential mass onboarding event and a huge risk that it makes the entire industry look like a scam.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Nov 12, 2024
Solana now rivals Ethereum across nearly every key metric.

Yet $SOL trades at just 33% the valuation of $ETH.

Our Solana Thesis Part II: The Data-Driven Case for $SOL.

1/ Image
In Q4’23 Syncracy released a Solana thesis arguing that SOL was severely mispriced at 13% of Ethereum’s valuation.

Today we explore how the thesis has progressed, unpack Solana’s growing network effects, and make the case for parity with ETH.

syncracy.io/writing/solana…Image
Solana’s growing ecosystem of assets, applications, businesses, and users is becoming a compounding superstructure, positioning Solana to be a secular winner of the cryptoeconomy.

This is becoming evident in the data which shows Solana rivaling Ethereum in value creation. Image
Read 10 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Oct 8, 2024
Applications on Ethereum and Solana are on the verge of flipping their underlying infrastructure in revenue.

What does this mean for the future of value capture in the cryptoeconomy? Image
Contrary to popular belief, the age of the applications is upon us.

There are now plenty of apps generating 8-9 figures in revenue.

Still, apps continue to trade at huge discounts to infrastructure, which on average trade at ~300x higher multiples.

syncracy.io/writing/applic…
Will infrastructure multiples compress over time and app multiples rise?

We at Syncracy believe that apps capturing a greater share of the global blockchain fee pool and outearning most infrastructure is likely an inflection point for the reckoning that’s to come. Image
Read 9 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jun 19, 2024
The era of brain dead private → public token arbitrage is coming to an end.

We simply don’t need more useless infra + tokens while there’s clear secular winners emerging across the cryptoeconomy.

In time the market structure will shift to reflect this.

The frontier is liquid.
Venture strategies will still thrive, but returns will be harder won.

The dispersion of returns between the best and worst will likely increase from here.
Similarly early stage infrastructure investments could still perform well, but will likely require more selectiveness on the part of managers.

You can no longer buy random L1/L2s at 9 figure valuations and expect to dump on retail.

Perhaps applications are next up.
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Apr 25, 2024
Over the past year Syncracy accumulated a large position in MKR.

We believe Maker could command a $40+ billion valuation this cycle given its vital role in financing Ethereum’s economy — a multi-billion dollar fee opportunity.

Our thesis on Maker in the Endgame Era.

1/ Image
Maker is the leading decentralized bank in the cryptoeconomy.

At ~2x 2025E revenue, we believe Maker is one of the best risk / reward opportunities today given its industry leading earnings, best-in-class unit economics, and growing market dominance. 

syncracy.io/writing/makerd…
Maker is a leviathan amongst the leaders, capturing nearly 40% of all DeFi profits on Ethereum.

Its competitive advantage is centered around its currency Dai —the most widely used decentralized stablecoin in the industry with its deep liquidity, integrations, and track record. Image
Read 12 tweets

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