Ed Conway Profile picture
Apr 22, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Anyone fancy an #Earthday data thread?
One of my frustrations with this topic is that all too often it’s portrayed in enormously over-simplistic terms: We need to stop flying! Cutting down forests is killing the planet!
So here’s some charts that show you the numbers that matter
Let’s start with this: this doughnut shows you total global emissions. About 50 gigatonnes of CO2 or equivalent. The numbers are from @WorldResources based on @IEA data which you and I can’t afford to see because they’re stuck behind a mammoth paywall.
First let’s break the doughnut into some primary categories: the vast majority is emissions from energy: everything from power stations to gas boilers to industrial processes. But also note a big chunk is emissions directly coming from the land/farming, and industry/waste
Let’s start with the bits that are probably pretty familiar. First, energy. It’s the vast majority of our emissions. And if you break it down further you can see the main parts. You’ve got transport (car exhausts, planes etc). Emissions from buildings (electricity, heating/AC).
What’s really striking (to me at least) is that the biggest component part of the biggest slice of emissions is not how we get around or how we live, but industrial processes: primarily iron/steel. This is a really, really big deal. Steel is not a sideshow. It’s a massive emitter
In fact, emissions from steel and the chemicals industry are about the same as the total emissions the nearly eight billion people on this planet create in our homes - from electricity, heating etc. A few thousand companies vs eight billion people!
Of course, energy isn’t the only source of emissions. CO2 is also puffed out from the chemical process when we make cement. A LOT of CO2. Methane wafts up from landfill. Then there’s land use, which is worth breaking down because it’s a very big deal…
So much is said abt reducing fossil fuel use, but far less about this slice of the emissions pie:
Land use
Lots comes from livestock & manure.
A striking amount is methane emissions from rice paddy fields - more than for every other crop!
Why aren’t we talking more about RICE?!
Dig into the data and it’s also clear that the mainstream narrative about carbon is somewhat divorced from the data. We talk a LOT about aviation emissions, and about deforestation. We talk far less about cement production. Yet it accounts for more emissions than either of those.
Actually that 3% number for cement production is an understatement since that’s purely the CO2 released from the chemical reaction in turning limestone into lime. We should really add on another 3-4% for the emissions from the ENERGY used to power the cement kilns.
There’s a great @WorldResources sankey diagram of all of this, which neatly shows you which sector is producing carbon and which methane etc here. My data is from there. Worth playing around with yourself wri.org/data/world-gre…
It’s worth saying at this stage: the UK’s specific pie chart is different: less carbon coming from industrial processes, for one thing. One of the upshots is that our domestic carbon emissions are actually pretty low. And falling quite fast. Hurrah!
But now include the carbon embedded in all those products we’re buying from overseas. Steel from Poland, aluminium, cement etc, and you can see our carbon FOOTPRINT - eg the emissions from the products we produce and consume, are far, far higher
It’s worth keeping this chart in the back of your mind as politicians go on about net zero in the coming months. What they’re invariably talking about is the white line. That’s fair enough. That’s what they control. But the black line also really matters.
Overarching lesson: if we’re really serious abt getting to net zero, we shouldn’t just be talking about forests. We should be talking about cement.
We shouldn’t just be talking about coal. We should be talking about rice…
Video here:
Before you say anything, yes there is another way to break down global carbon emissions: not by sector but by COUNTRY.
If you’re interested in that breakdown, you’ll find it in this video. You can probably guess the biggest polluter…

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More from @EdConwaySky

May 15
V interesting new analysis out today from the @IPPR.
There have been plenty of reports saying we need to do what we can to rebuild manufacturing & grow green tech.
But WHICH SECTORS could the UK actually compete in? This report provides some of the answers news.sky.com/story/rapid-st…
Full report here👇
It's precisely the kind of forensic work this govt (or the next one) needs to do on industrial strategy. We can't hope to compete with China & the US in EVERY field. So what do we focus on?
They say: heat pumps, wind and green transport ippr.org/articles/manuf…
Now a few key charts from the @ippr report. Some are also in the TV report we're running on @skynews today.
First off (and most depressingly) the UK has deindustrialised faster than any other developed economy. We've actually LOST a lot of our expertise and competencies Image
Read 6 tweets
May 14
🧵
Joe Biden has just confirmed he's going to raise the special tariff on electric vehicles coming from China to 100%.
Also new tariffs on batteries and solar panels.
What's going on here?
Here's a quick primer with some charts 👇
First off, a recap on what's happened with tariffs.
The standard tariff on cars is 2.5% - that's what most other nations pay.
Trump levied an extra 25% tariff on China in 2018.
Now far from changing course, Biden is doubling down - or rather quadrupling down.
Now it'll be 102.5%
Why is this happening?
Well, a big part of it is politics.
But the other part of it comes back to this chart👇
China has come from nowhere in the past few years to become a car exporting powerhouse.
Just look!
And this is almost entirely because of electric cars Image
Read 13 tweets
May 2
I hate to be pedantic (and no doubt this will mean I'll be labelled as one of those doomsters @KemiBadenoch is calling out here) but there's a few problems with the data the biz/trade sec is quoting here.
When you correct them, the picture looks a little different...
🧵
Let's start with the big one.
In all the charts in the @biztradegovuk document she quotes from, it looks like export volumes are bigger than ever before 👇
Hurrah!
Except this is true only when you fail to adjust for inflation. Which, as we all know, has been VERY high recently Image
Let's take the same @ONS database and use the inflation-adjusted series, as we really should when comparing flows over time.
Suddenly, what looked like an ever-increasing volume of trade is actually a lot more flat.
Goods exports (dark blue bars) are still well below pre-Brexit. Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 18
NEW
Britain's motoring lobby group the @SMMT has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in car exports to Azerbaijan has NOTHING to with Russia and is explained by the fact that this former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
This is rather... odd
🧵 Image
Before we get onto that, some background (thread on this here👇).
TLDR: UK car exports to Russia have collapsed, because of sanctions. But UK car exports to countries neighbouring Russia have suddenly risen by nearly the same amount. Esp Azerbaijan
Following my original report we now have new figs on UK car exports.
They show flows to Azerbaijan have continued. £42m in Jan. 3rd highest EVER.
Now there's no way of being 100% sure what's going on here. you can't track consignments beyond Azerbaijan (if they ever reach Az) Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 12
🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
Let's start at the start.
Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
So when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not without significance that all Britain's major carmakers said they would stop sending their cars to Russia.
Anyway, shortly afterwards, the UK imposed sanctions which made it illegal to do so anyway...
There are two sanctions of note here.
First, UK companies cannot send "dual use" items to Russia which could be turned into weapons.
Second, there was a specific ban on the sale of any car over £42k👇
So it's pretty simple. No cars. Esp not luxury cars. legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/452/…
Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 6
💷BUDGET THREAD💷
A few thoughts on what was supposed to be a big event but ended up feeling, well, a wee bit thin.
And that’s the first thing to say.
Strikingly, this Budget was HALF as big as the Autumn Statement. Look at the difference between the scorecard totals 👇
Image
Image
Was it a tax-cutting Budget?
I mean… not really.
Well, OK, the net impact is taxes aren’t going up as quickly as they were 6 months ago.
But (and I think this is pretty crucial) THEY’RE STILL GOING UP. The tax burden will be higher at the end of this Parliament than before.
Here’s a good illustration of that.
The bars here show you the impact, across the economy, of the decision a few Budgets ago to freeze tax allowances. The bars are in negative territory.
People are paying more in taxes as they get dragged into higher thresholds… Image
Read 14 tweets

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