Ed Conway Profile picture
Apr 22, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Anyone fancy an #Earthday data thread?
One of my frustrations with this topic is that all too often it’s portrayed in enormously over-simplistic terms: We need to stop flying! Cutting down forests is killing the planet!
So here’s some charts that show you the numbers that matter
Let’s start with this: this doughnut shows you total global emissions. About 50 gigatonnes of CO2 or equivalent. The numbers are from @WorldResources based on @IEA data which you and I can’t afford to see because they’re stuck behind a mammoth paywall.
First let’s break the doughnut into some primary categories: the vast majority is emissions from energy: everything from power stations to gas boilers to industrial processes. But also note a big chunk is emissions directly coming from the land/farming, and industry/waste
Let’s start with the bits that are probably pretty familiar. First, energy. It’s the vast majority of our emissions. And if you break it down further you can see the main parts. You’ve got transport (car exhausts, planes etc). Emissions from buildings (electricity, heating/AC).
What’s really striking (to me at least) is that the biggest component part of the biggest slice of emissions is not how we get around or how we live, but industrial processes: primarily iron/steel. This is a really, really big deal. Steel is not a sideshow. It’s a massive emitter
In fact, emissions from steel and the chemicals industry are about the same as the total emissions the nearly eight billion people on this planet create in our homes - from electricity, heating etc. A few thousand companies vs eight billion people!
Of course, energy isn’t the only source of emissions. CO2 is also puffed out from the chemical process when we make cement. A LOT of CO2. Methane wafts up from landfill. Then there’s land use, which is worth breaking down because it’s a very big deal…
So much is said abt reducing fossil fuel use, but far less about this slice of the emissions pie:
Land use
Lots comes from livestock & manure.
A striking amount is methane emissions from rice paddy fields - more than for every other crop!
Why aren’t we talking more about RICE?!
Dig into the data and it’s also clear that the mainstream narrative about carbon is somewhat divorced from the data. We talk a LOT about aviation emissions, and about deforestation. We talk far less about cement production. Yet it accounts for more emissions than either of those.
Actually that 3% number for cement production is an understatement since that’s purely the CO2 released from the chemical reaction in turning limestone into lime. We should really add on another 3-4% for the emissions from the ENERGY used to power the cement kilns.
There’s a great @WorldResources sankey diagram of all of this, which neatly shows you which sector is producing carbon and which methane etc here. My data is from there. Worth playing around with yourself wri.org/data/world-gre…
It’s worth saying at this stage: the UK’s specific pie chart is different: less carbon coming from industrial processes, for one thing. One of the upshots is that our domestic carbon emissions are actually pretty low. And falling quite fast. Hurrah!
But now include the carbon embedded in all those products we’re buying from overseas. Steel from Poland, aluminium, cement etc, and you can see our carbon FOOTPRINT - eg the emissions from the products we produce and consume, are far, far higher
It’s worth keeping this chart in the back of your mind as politicians go on about net zero in the coming months. What they’re invariably talking about is the white line. That’s fair enough. That’s what they control. But the black line also really matters.
Overarching lesson: if we’re really serious abt getting to net zero, we shouldn’t just be talking about forests. We should be talking about cement.
We shouldn’t just be talking about coal. We should be talking about rice…
Video here:
Before you say anything, yes there is another way to break down global carbon emissions: not by sector but by COUNTRY.
If you’re interested in that breakdown, you’ll find it in this video. You can probably guess the biggest polluter…

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More from @EdConwaySky

Jul 20
🧵
80 years ago today, newspapers in Europe carried news of the unexpected death of a very important man, in a hotel miles from the nearest city.
A man who, said some, was helping the Allies win the war.
But there was a twist to the tale. The man in question wasn't actually dead Image
That man was John Maynard Keynes. The 61 year old economist was at the Mount Washington Hotel in New Hampshire for what became known as the Bretton Woods conference. And the day earlier he had indeed collapsed, following a heart attack. It was a moment of high drama. Image
The conference had already overrun.
It was supposed to be done in two weeks and there was talk that the delegates would soon be kicked out of the hotel. This was, to put it lightly, a problem.
After all, in the absence of an agreement there was a chance of yet another world war Image
Read 29 tweets
Jul 10
It says something about how confusing Labour's green investment policies are that seemingly even the Treasury has misunderstood them.
Contrary to what the picture in this press release👇 suggests, the National Wealth Fund has nothing to do with wind power or indeed green energy
Instead it's very specifically designed to focus on all the low or zero carbon technologies that AREN'T really to do with generating power.
- Green steel
- Hydrogen
- Clusters
- Gigafactories
Here's the sectors the institution will focus on 👇 Image
Simple way to think abt this:
Pretty much ALL heavy industry today emits carbon, directly or indirectly. The techniques we use to make stuff mostly date back to the industrial revolution. Getting to net zero involves redoing the industrial revolution! edconway.substack.com/p/yet-another-…
Read 7 tweets
Jul 5
🧵
How did Keir Starmer manage to win a landslide majority even though fewer people voted for him than for Jeremy Corbyn in either of his election bids?
A quick thread looking beneath the numbers.
Let’s start with swing…
Election nerds like to focus on two-party swing - essentially showing how voters shifted between the main parties.
And on this metric, Labour enjoyed a MASSIVE swing. 11%. Slightly more than Blair in 1997.
But there’s more to this chart than meets the eye… Image
Let’s take the same data, two-party swing, & break it down. Red bits of bars show change in Labour vote, blue bits show Tory change.
Now look again at that 2024 bar (on the far right).
The vast, vast majority of swing to Labour is in fact swing AWAY from the Conservatives. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 2
🧵THE STRANGE CASE OF THE YAKOV GAKKEL🧵
A thread about the energy story no-one wants to talk about.
About how UK companies are helping facilitate Russia, as it earns money to finance its war.
And about how the cost of living crisis didn't end quite how you prob thought it did…
But before all of that it's a story of a ship. A v unusual ship.
The Yakov Gakkel. A vessel that routinely passes these shores. As I type this it's somewhere north of Norway. But I first saw it in the English Channel.
And at first glance you might not think it all that special.. Image
But beneath that enormous blue hull is some incredibly advanced technology. Because the Yakov Gakkel is a cutting edge liquefied natural gas tanker, capable of holding vast amounts of natural gas at temperatures of approximately −163 °C.
These things are pretty incredible! Image
Read 21 tweets
Jul 1
🧵You know the idea, posited by @theIFS, that the main parties are engaged in a "conspiracy of silence" this election.
Their original point was about spending plans.
But I think you cld go much further.
I can think of at least 5 other areas where there's a conspiracy of silence
1⃣Taxes ARE going up under all the main parties' plans.
But they prefer not to talk about this, hiding instead behind the claim that tax rates on income tax, NICs and VAT won't rise. But they've still signed up to plans which will mean the AMOUNT of taxes we're paying will rise. Image
2⃣The magical tax avoidance money tree.
All the parties think they'll raise enormous sums clamping down on tax avoidance.
So much that they need not raise other taxes. This is v uncertain. But since they've all done the same trick they remain silent about its ridiculousness
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
🧵
You've probably heard this claim - both from @rishisunak and more recently from @Nigel_Farage 👇
UK has leapfrogged others to become the world's fourth biggest exporter! And all after Brexit!
Unfortunately the reality is somewhat less impressive than this sounds.
Here's why: Image
First thing to say is that the bare bones of the claim are certainly true.
Between 2021 and 2022 the UK did indeed rise from 7th in the league table of the world's biggest exporters (counting both goods and services) to 4th.
We'll get to why this happened in a moment. But still Image
However here's some (very) important context.
It's not like the UK has only JUST hit fourth spot. In fact, it was in 4th place in 2020. And in 2015, 2014 and 2013.
Actually if you look at the modal average of our position in the past decade it was... fourth. Image
Read 12 tweets

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