Anyone fancy an #Earthday data thread?
One of my frustrations with this topic is that all too often it’s portrayed in enormously over-simplistic terms: We need to stop flying! Cutting down forests is killing the planet!
So here’s some charts that show you the numbers that matter
Let’s start with this: this doughnut shows you total global emissions. About 50 gigatonnes of CO2 or equivalent. The numbers are from @WorldResources based on @IEA data which you and I can’t afford to see because they’re stuck behind a mammoth paywall.
First let’s break the doughnut into some primary categories: the vast majority is emissions from energy: everything from power stations to gas boilers to industrial processes. But also note a big chunk is emissions directly coming from the land/farming, and industry/waste
Let’s start with the bits that are probably pretty familiar. First, energy. It’s the vast majority of our emissions. And if you break it down further you can see the main parts. You’ve got transport (car exhausts, planes etc). Emissions from buildings (electricity, heating/AC).
What’s really striking (to me at least) is that the biggest component part of the biggest slice of emissions is not how we get around or how we live, but industrial processes: primarily iron/steel. This is a really, really big deal. Steel is not a sideshow. It’s a massive emitter
In fact, emissions from steel and the chemicals industry are about the same as the total emissions the nearly eight billion people on this planet create in our homes - from electricity, heating etc. A few thousand companies vs eight billion people!
Of course, energy isn’t the only source of emissions. CO2 is also puffed out from the chemical process when we make cement. A LOT of CO2. Methane wafts up from landfill. Then there’s land use, which is worth breaking down because it’s a very big deal…
So much is said abt reducing fossil fuel use, but far less about this slice of the emissions pie:
Land use
Lots comes from livestock & manure.
A striking amount is methane emissions from rice paddy fields - more than for every other crop!
Why aren’t we talking more about RICE?!
Dig into the data and it’s also clear that the mainstream narrative about carbon is somewhat divorced from the data. We talk a LOT about aviation emissions, and about deforestation. We talk far less about cement production. Yet it accounts for more emissions than either of those.
Actually that 3% number for cement production is an understatement since that’s purely the CO2 released from the chemical reaction in turning limestone into lime. We should really add on another 3-4% for the emissions from the ENERGY used to power the cement kilns.
There’s a great @WorldResources sankey diagram of all of this, which neatly shows you which sector is producing carbon and which methane etc here. My data is from there. Worth playing around with yourself wri.org/data/world-gre…
It’s worth saying at this stage: the UK’s specific pie chart is different: less carbon coming from industrial processes, for one thing. One of the upshots is that our domestic carbon emissions are actually pretty low. And falling quite fast. Hurrah!
But now include the carbon embedded in all those products we’re buying from overseas. Steel from Poland, aluminium, cement etc, and you can see our carbon FOOTPRINT - eg the emissions from the products we produce and consume, are far, far higher
It’s worth keeping this chart in the back of your mind as politicians go on about net zero in the coming months. What they’re invariably talking about is the white line. That’s fair enough. That’s what they control. But the black line also really matters.
Overarching lesson: if we’re really serious abt getting to net zero, we shouldn’t just be talking about forests. We should be talking about cement.
We shouldn’t just be talking about coal. We should be talking about rice…
Video here:
Before you say anything, yes there is another way to break down global carbon emissions: not by sector but by COUNTRY.
If you’re interested in that breakdown, you’ll find it in this video. You can probably guess the biggest polluter…
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If you're even half interested in energy, I bet you've seen this chart. I call it The Most Hopeful Chart in the World.
The point? We're embracing renewable power MUCH faster than expected.
Hurrah!
Only problem is, this chart has an evil twin. A chart we really need to discuss
🧵
The Most Hopeful Chart in the World shows how each year the @IEA predicted that the amount of solar output around the world would plateau or rise v slowly in the following years. But instead solar output defied all expectations, rising exponentially.
That's great news.
But making solar panels is an energy-intensive exercise.
You need a lot of coal to smelt down the silicon and a lot of power to turn metallurgical silicon into polysilicon, let alone the monocrystalline boules you really need for a decent solar module (read my book for more 📖)
🚜FARMAGEDDON🌾
The story of what's REALLY going on in farming. A story far more complex than the conventional wisdom.
This isn't just (or even mainly) about inheritance tax. It's about a cascade of challenges & crises that may ultimately threaten food security.
📽️5 min primer👇
Let's begin with that big, overarching issue: food security.
For most of the past century, farmers have been encouraged to grow as much food as possible. The story here goes back to WWII and its aftermath, when the conventional wisdom was the UK needed to be more self sufficient
Encouraged by the govt, the UK's domestic food production, which before WWII had dropped to just 35% of what we ate, rose rapidly to over 60%.
Some economists say self sufficiency is overrated. But it's one of those post-war principles that stuck.
By accident as much as design.
🚗What's happening to Europe's car industry is one of the biggest stories in the world right now, & prob the biggest story of next year too.
A slow motion implosion driven by multiple factors (esp Chinese competition).
Watch my primer on what's going on👇
What makes this moment so dangerous, so destructive for legacy carmakers, is that this is a perfect storm. Three main issues: 1. The shift from conventional engines to batteries is a DISRUPTIVE innovation. The kind of thing Clay Christensen wrote about.
This is a MASSIVE deal...
Think about a combustion engine.
An assembly of HUNDREDS of pieces of metal, all perfectly honed to turn fuel into motion.
Making these things is REALLY hard. Which is why:
a) that's where most of the value/jobs are
b) other countries have struggled to compete making them
Today we learnt the no of people flowing into the UK hit an all-time high last yr: an influx we've NEVER seen before either as a total or as a share of the population.
So... why is the @ONS (and some news organisations) reporting this as a FALL in migration?!
Let's dig deeper
🧵
The ONS publishes immigration figures every six months. There's a lot of data, with plenty of provisos all over it.
But as is often the case the story gets simplified in the telling.
Consider the story the last time the data came out. This is how the chart looked 👇
And here's how most people reported the numbers: immigration was going down. Yes, from unprecedented highs - but even so. Down by 10%. A success story, as far as the then govt was concerned.
🧵SALT🧵
It's been snowing in the UK and the road gritters are out in force, begging the question:
Have you ever wondered where that grit actually COMES from?
The answer is more magical, beautiful and fascinating than you probably realised.
1/14
Because that dirty-looking salt being spread by trucks on our roads is actually the remains of an ancient ocean (actually two ancient oceans), buried deep beneath our feet.
Most of the stuff being spread in London comes from a single mine in Cheshire - at Winsford.
2/14
Here, about 20 to 40m beneath the meadows of Cheshire, is an enormous slab of halite, rock salt, the remains of an ancient inland sea a couple of hundred million years ago.
This is where most of our salt comes from.
3/14
🧵How worried should we (and @RachelReevesMP) be about the slightly nervy reaction from financial markets towards her first Budget?
Short answer: certainly a bit worried.
But perhaps not for the reasons you might expect...
Worth saying at the outset: these markets are volatile.
Trying to interpret movements in govt bonds is v tricky.
They're moved by all sorts of factors - fiscal, monetary, economic and structural - from all over the world.
So yesterday's Budget is only one of many factors here...
Even so, there has been a marked rise in UK bond yields following the Budget which is greater than what we're seeing in other markets.
This morning the UK 10 year bond yield hit the highest level in nearly a year. It's up 1.7% since yday - far more than US or German equivalents