Thread by @AbigailBimman

A federal modelling update is back and so is that pesky daylight across Dr. Tam’s face. She says we’re still in a tight race between the vaccine and the variant and there have been more than 200k new cases since the last update a month ago.

The average of people in hospitals and ICUs each day has doubled or more since late March. Over the past week there has been an average of 46 deaths daily. Dr. Tam says deaths rates are still well below peaks of first and second wave.

Dr. Tam says the good news from today’s update is about the Rt (rate of transmission). It’s below 1 for the first time in weeks, following restrictions. This means “epidemic has dropped out of a growth pattern,” which she attributes to BC, ON & QC. It’s above 1 in other places.

The average hospital stay is 2 weeks, with more severe cases taking 3 weeks. Dr. Tam points out this is placing prolonged strain on hospitals, causing many transfers and surgery cancellations. The steepest rise in hospitalization is among adults 40-59.

Here’s a look at cases in the hardest hit provinces.

Dr. Tam says over 86% of adults 80+ have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Incident rates have declined dramatically among adults that age, and rates in long-term care have declined since January.

This slide shows previous modelling - Dr. Tam says as restrictions started to take effect in mid April, the red dots started plotting below the strong resurgence trajectory.

This is a longer range forecast that accounts for vaccination. Grey line: no measures are taken. Middle line: new restrictions & 30% reduction in contacts. Bottom darker purple show 40% reduction in contacts, Dr. Tam compares to January, shows epidemic will come under control.

KEY: new slide looks at whether it’s safe to lift measures this summer. Scenario on left shows hospital capacity won’t be maxed out if 20% of adults get second dose, 75% have first. On right, hospitals WILL be overwhelmed if 55% of adults get first dose, 20% get second dose.