Thread by @awprokop

NEW: I profiled Joe Manchin. I cover his 4-decade career, and his improbable rise to become Democrats’ key 50th senator.

I interviewed him about the filibuster, HR1, the minimum wage, whether he’d ever switch parties, and more. Some highlights: vox.com/22339531/manch…

On Manchin's op-ed saying there's no circumstance under which he'll eliminate the filibuster:

“The op-ed was as clear as it could be... If you want to argue about it for two years, then you’re going to waste a lot of your energy and your time.”

Manchin on HR1/S1: “How in the world could you, with the tension we have right now, allow a voting bill to restructure the voting of America on a partisan line?”

He insists it will just feed more distrust in the system and "anarchy" like Jan 6 — "I'm not going to be part of it"

Historically, Manchin has spent decades defining himself in contrast to his party's left flank. He was part of the conservative wing of WV Democrats and often clashed with unions in the '80s and '90s, leading to his defeat in a tense 1996 governor primary.

In the years following his '96 defeat, Manchin won over many of his critics in the party, making clear to unions that they could live with him as governor.

He won that job in '04, but by the time he won, he knew the state was slipping away from Dems

The backdrop for the piece is the erosion and then collapse of the Democratic Party in West Virginia. Dems had controlled the legislature for eight decades, and both Senate seats since 1959, before the 2014 midterms. But cracks were evident beforehand. Manchin saw all this happen

Yet as governor Manchin found a path to overwhelming popularity, mixing canny political branding, image management, legislative dealmaking, and old-fashioned retail politics.

His legislative style: bring every interest to the table and come up with a deal everyone can live with

In the Senate, Manchin has the most conservative voting record of any Democrat. Yet his vote has had a tendency to materialize when Democrats really need it — such as in saving Obamacare, or passing Biden's stimulus. vox.com/22339531/manch…

Progressives hope Manchin's opposition to rules reform will be negotiable too.

But to me he insisted that he truly believes that ending the filibuster would "lose the purpose of this democracy," by ensuring "violent swings" from one party's control over the law to the other

The argument that Republicans will let "nothing" pass isn't convincing to Manchin — in part because it's a bit out of date.

As political scientist Frances Lee told me, Congress has gotten a surprising amount done in the last few years. vox.com/22339531/manch…

Manchin has been involved in many bipartisan deals, on issues like rescuing miners' pensions, energy policy, and of course last December's Covid relief package.

But these came while Republicans were trying to keep control of the Senate. Unclear whether they'll continue

Manchin is concerned about extremism from the GOP base ("if you saw my emails on a daily basis, it's unreal," he told me). But he argues the solution is for Democrats to moderate, to try to turn down the temperature. He hopes that, by rejecting filibuster reform, that can happen

I asked Manchin if he'd ever switch parties, and he said, "I know I can change more from where I’m at." And he defined what he said were the principles of the Democratic Party he grew up with.

vox.com/22339531/manch…