One thing I would love people who think Florida is cooking the books to really think about is:

How, exactly, are they doing this?

Walk me through this process.
Deaths are reported to the state from the county health departments

Are you saying that DeSantis is changing the numbers from the county health departments?

So we would get the right number if we added up the individual counties individually?
Or are you saying every county health department in Florida is in on the scam?

So even the blue-est of the blue counties in Florida is in cahoots with DeSantis to lie to their constituents?
Do you think it's a definition problem? Do you think Florida defines "death due to COVID" differently than everyone else?

Are you aware those definitions are actual medical codes? So you'd have to get every hospital and doctor in Florida to be in on this conspiracy.
Do you know that in many cases hospitals report their numbers directly to the state health department as well as the county health department?

Did you know Florida publishes hospital-by-hospital numbers? So if the state was changing them, the hospital would see that.
This is a pretty decent attempt to come up with some coherent evidence of "hidden deaths"

My follow-up question would be: What evidence would you accept as an indicator that these claims weren't true?

For those who are uninterested in giving bad journalism a click, here are those articles on archive.is

archive.is/tRLye#selectio…

archive.is/6541f
The problem these articles have is that they don't follow up on any of this.

If their claims are true, then we should see the COVID death disparity show up in the excess deaths difference, which you can't hide.

But we don't see that disparity.
The end result is people end up cornering themselves into the position that Texas and Florida are massively undercounting COVID deaths (presumably coding them as non-COVID) but those non-COVID aren't counting toward excess deaths either, essentially disappearing from the data
By the way, this is why Nate Silver keeps pointing to the excess deaths data. He is pointing out that we should see *really* bad and unexplainable excess deaths out of Florida if they were hiding deaths.
There are only two states that have abnormally high excess death data that isn't coded as COVID

New York and Michigan

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More from @politicalmath

27 Apr
We need reform at the CDC and I honestly have no idea how we could do that

Trump set Deborah Birx to that task and it looked for a while like she was getting results...
... until ProPublica allowed the bureaucratic lifers at the CDC to undermine Birx and take a dump on her reform efforts

ProPublica does a lot of good work, but their hit piece on Birx was disgraceful. In that moment, they became a political tool

propublica.org/article/inside…
The only way reform happens within our government bureaucracies is firing people en mass

They'll bitch and moan and leak details and news orgs will dutifully write their little sniveling articles, allowing the incompetents to act as ghost writers for their hit pieces
Read 5 tweets
27 Apr
one of the weirdest things about this crisis is running into smart people who follow the data who have come to the *exact same conclusions* but have never met each other or otherwise crossed paths
This is hard to explain, but there are a couple hundred people out there who closely follow the data and, absent any central authority (like the CDC or the professional media), have come to their own independent assessments and they all agree on 90% of everything
None of these people are in media, none of them are in professional politics. They're all just... people who follow data

And it's extraordinarily strange that they are all saying the same things, but those things are things you very rarely hear from the professional journalists
Read 4 tweets
26 Apr
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Do you want to know why most of the kids going back to school are white?

B/c districts with children of color are deep blue and many have been convinced that sending their kids to school is a death sentence

Is this structural racism? Maybe. If so, it's coming from team blue.
"the kids returning to school are mostly white.

OK

Gotcha

Therefore

1) Ron DeSantis, who demanded that every school district have in-person options, is a hero to people of color

2) Rebekah Jones, who continues to screech that children must stay home, is a flaming racist
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
This is where I feel really disconnected from "the discourse"

Twitter is filled with people who think Florida is changing the state website from "15 million dead" to "15 thousand dead" (as if that is how this works) but I've never actually met this person is real life
I long ago looked at a dozen Florida data conspiracies and quickly concluded this was all just a dumb hatchet job by malicious idiots and then moved forward, never giving it a second thought

But there's a whole subculture of people who believe this is a watergate level scandal
And yet these people seem to be entirely "online"

I've never met a human in person who told me this or even mentioned it in passing
Read 4 tweets
25 Apr
Yes

Operation Ward Speed was the most astounding and successful gov't initiative in a generation. It was driven by some of the greatest minds in medicine

We shouldn't ignore it simply because it started under Trump
I've had a few friends say "well, we should have called it Warp Speed, that made people vaccine hesitant b/c they thought it was rushed"

guys

do you think people are vaccine hesitant b/c of the name of b/c the Kamala Harris took a public shit on any vaccine made under Trump?
vaccine hesitancy is *obviously* more driven by partisan politics than by anything else. there are several polls showing hesitancy flipping the moment people thought Trump wasn't involved in them

If you can't admit this, then we're just not occupying the same reality
Read 4 tweets
23 Apr
I'm watching as people are getting concerned about the slow-down in vaccine rollout and I'm little frustrated b/c this seems like exactly the sort of thing the CDC should be making public statements about, helping us understand what is going on.
Everyone is out here trying to sift through the data, making educated guesses, wouldn't it be better / easier if the CDC was like "Yeah, after the J&J shots got cancelled, we saw a slowdown in vaccinations and we think we have a good idea why that is"
idk, maybe we'd all just still be arguing about it even if the CDC did put out a plausible-sounding explanation

That sounds like us
Read 4 tweets

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