Shopify is a special company trying to solve the ABC of commerce on the internet for everyone. And it is run by deeply competent leader(s).
I’m not a shareholder, so it must be true.
Here are my highlights from the latest quarter.
2/ “A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”-Bill Gates
Merchants generated $307B, and its partners made $12B. SHOP’s revenue in 2020 was $2.9B. Like I said, it’s a special company.
3/ Both GMV and revenue more than doubled as broader e-commerce penetration remains elevated.
Subscription Solution +71% YoY
Merchant solution +137% YoY
Gross Payments Volume (GPV) 46% of GMV (vs 42% in 1Q’21)
4/ As mentioned in my recent deep dive, take rates remain the bigger piece of the puzzle to make the stock work in the long term.
Unless take rates ramp up 2-3x of what it is today in 10 years, it can be difficult to make sense of the current stock price.
5/ Okay, back to Shopify adulation.
“The number of shops actively selling on Facebook shops has more than quadrupled since Q1 a year ago as well as the GMV through Facebook.” 😍😍
Also, partnership with Tiktok and Pinterest.
6/ “More merchants join our fulfillment network in Q1, and we fulfilled similar volumes as in Q4”
“In 1Q'21, we funded over $300 million to our merchants, up 90% year-over-year”
“It took 4 years to fund the first $1 billion and just 1 quarter of that time to fund the second.”
7/ On Shop app:
“At the end of Q1 2021, Shop had more than 107 million registered users, including buyers using Shop Pay as well as the Shop App, of which more than 24 million were Monthly Active Users.”
8/ Outlook: Despite significant consensus beat, SHOP maintained its outlook because of different variables continue to be at play.
9/ However, SHOP played down the role of stimulus during the call, highlighting how international has outpaced US growth.
10/ Will e-commerce penetration take a backseat once things open up?
If Australia and NZ is any guide, the answer is no. Don’t expect any surge in e-commerce, but penetration is likely to remain elevated.
11/ Here’s my deep dive on $SHOP that I published this month (paywall): mbi-deepdives.com/shop/
End/ I will cover $FB earnings tonight. Expect a thread by 10-11 pm ET.
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."