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Samo Burja Profile picture
@SamoBurja
Apr 30, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Long before the first atom bombs were used in 1945, nuclear scientists tried to prevent a world where opposed military powers had nuclear weapons.

They failed. Why?

Read the newly-released case study by Bismarck Analysis here: bismarckanalysis.com/Nuclear_Weapon…
This case study is based on research conducted primarily in 2018 and which formed the basis for Zachary Lerangis’ recent article on the physicist Leo Szilard in @palladiummag, which you can read here:

palladiummag.com/2021/03/16/leo…
Bismarck Analysis occasionally makes select analytical products available to the general public. This is the second case study we have released.

The first case study, on machine tools and advanced manufacturing, was released in 2020. You can read it here bismarckanalysis.com/Machine_Tools_…
The machine tools case study also formed the basis for the excellent @palladiummag article by @benlandautaylor and @OberonDL on how state capacity drives industrialization, which you can read here:

palladiummag.com/2020/02/12/how…
I will be writing threads on key sections and insights from our case study on nuclear weapons development for the next few days.

They will be appended to this megathread, where you can navigate to each of them:
On why the case study is the best methodology for sociological research:

On how scientists vigorously lobbied for the start of the Manhattan Project, but were rebuffed until government officials determined it was time:

On the physicist Leo Szilard’s attempts to influence the administration of nuclear weapons research programs:

On Niels Bohr’s vigorous and yet ultimately failed attempts to pre-emptively stop nuclear weapons proliferation:

On why scientists and technologists cannot be merely empowered with political authority, rather they must adopt a culture of statesmanship:

As a coda for this storm of threads, I highlight some additional notable episodes in the history of relationships between scientists and statesmen during this era:

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More from @SamoBurja

Samo Burja Profile picture
Nov 11, 2025
Let's talk about something that will shape our future, but no one is yet considering or predicting:

China will eventually open its borders to mass immigration.
When it does it will absorb truly astounding numbers of immigrants, if proportional to say what the UK or Canada this will be 200-300 million or so people.

This might sound almost physically impossible, but the surprising almost disturbing truth is that in the modern world it is easy move 200 million people.

In 2023, 4.4 billion passengers were carried by the world's airlines.
200-300 million people in a graying ageing world of low fertility is enough to raise global labor costs.

This will be completely distinct second China shock to Western companies hoping to offshore to places with cheap labor.

The cheap labor good at working in factories will move to China. The West will get scraps of misplaced high end human capital and food app deliverymen.
Read 17 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Oct 15, 2025
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party have kept India on track for economic growth and becoming a great power.

Achieving succession and consolidating power will be necessary to fulfill his ambitions for India.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief (link below): Image
Modi has definitively broken India's half-century-old political status quo, by appealing to the patriotic Hindu middle class of India.

He is a career politician who rose up through the ranks of his party and has forgone marriage and children to devote his life to politics. Image
After ten years of Modi in power, Modi has proved that he is capable of sustaining economic growth in India at a relatively high pace, bringing in electronics and semiconductor manufacturers, building infrastructure, and simplifying bureaucracy.

This is a notably good start. Image
Read 6 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Sep 17, 2025
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has now instructed companies to cease testing and orders of Nvidia chips.

This policy means the growing Chinese AI industry will instead be feeding the Chinese semiconductor sector directly. Image
This news confirms our analysis in the @bismarckanlys Brief from two weeks ago on the strategic importance of the DeepSeek and Huawei partnership.

Unfortunately, these policies and partnerships mean that in the long run the advantage of the U.S. and Taiwan in high end chips over China will end.
Read 4 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Sep 3, 2025
Offering a superior option to China’s stifling universities, DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng has harnessed the country’s mathematics talent and founded an AI lab capable of advancing technology.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief and the first in our new AI series (link below): Image
DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab that rose to prominence in January when it matched OpenAI's most advanced model at a price thirty times lower.

A small company, it has open-sourced nearly everything and quickly become popular in China, even causing other AI labs to open-source too. Image
Some have claimed DeepSeek's success is due to undisclosed computing power, but this is unlikely.

The more parsimonious explanation is its founder Liang Wenfeng, an engineer, has collected China's top math and computer science talent at his firm, creating real advances. Image
Read 6 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Aug 20, 2025
Larry Ellison, the founder of Oracle, is the second-richest man in the world.

He is applying his fortune and his company to making fast progress in medicine and biotech using artificial intelligence and health data collection.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief! (link below): Image
Ellison's fortune derives from his 40% stake in Oracle, the enterprise software company he founded in the 1970s and which is worth $700 billion today.

Like IBM or Palantir, Oracle essentially provides the software and IT expertise that most organizations are too rigid to learn. Image
Despite being 81 years old, Ellison is still the chairman and CTO of Oracle, though he has delegated operational responsibilities to his long-time deputy Safra Catz.

He remains a spry and lucid person, with a formidable network and flashy, intense hobbies like yacht racing. Image
Read 6 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Jun 11, 2025
Northrop Grumman is the third-largest U.S. defense contractor makes unique weapons like the B-21 stealth bombers and silo-launched nuclear missiles.

It is unfortunately another example of a dead player in defense contracting.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief! (link below) Image
Formed in 1994 when California-based Northrop Corporation, acquired NY-based Grumman, the company inherits a technological legacy in stealth.

Northrop developed the B-2 Spirit’s iconic curved surface shape, which better redistribute the electromagnetic energy of radars. Image
They develop drones such as the RQ-180 stealth drone, which is set to replace both the Global Hawk and the U-2 spy plane that are scheduled to be retired in 2027.

The defense prime is entirely dependent on U.S. government contracts, which in 2024 represented 86% of total sales. Image
Read 6 tweets

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