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Samo Burja Profile picture
@SamoBurja
Apr 30, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Long before the first atom bombs were used in 1945, nuclear scientists tried to prevent a world where opposed military powers had nuclear weapons.

They failed. Why?

Read the newly-released case study by Bismarck Analysis here: bismarckanalysis.com/Nuclear_Weapon…
This case study is based on research conducted primarily in 2018 and which formed the basis for Zachary Lerangis’ recent article on the physicist Leo Szilard in @palladiummag, which you can read here:

palladiummag.com/2021/03/16/leo…
Bismarck Analysis occasionally makes select analytical products available to the general public. This is the second case study we have released.

The first case study, on machine tools and advanced manufacturing, was released in 2020. You can read it here bismarckanalysis.com/Machine_Tools_…
The machine tools case study also formed the basis for the excellent @palladiummag article by @benlandautaylor and @OberonDL on how state capacity drives industrialization, which you can read here:

palladiummag.com/2020/02/12/how…
I will be writing threads on key sections and insights from our case study on nuclear weapons development for the next few days.

They will be appended to this megathread, where you can navigate to each of them:
On why the case study is the best methodology for sociological research:

On how scientists vigorously lobbied for the start of the Manhattan Project, but were rebuffed until government officials determined it was time:

On the physicist Leo Szilard’s attempts to influence the administration of nuclear weapons research programs:

On Niels Bohr’s vigorous and yet ultimately failed attempts to pre-emptively stop nuclear weapons proliferation:

On why scientists and technologists cannot be merely empowered with political authority, rather they must adopt a culture of statesmanship:

As a coda for this storm of threads, I highlight some additional notable episodes in the history of relationships between scientists and statesmen during this era:

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More from @SamoBurja

Samo Burja Profile picture
Sep 11
Sony Group is Japan's most valuable consumer technology conglomerate.

It famously led global innovation in electronics for decades. Succession failure has made it less than the sum of its parts.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief:


1/n brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/sony-suggest…
Image
Sony is the world leader in image sensor semiconductor manufacturing, the largest video game company by revenue, the second-largest music publishing company, and the fourth-largest film studio.

2/n Image
Sony has been a global leader in consumer electronics innovation for decades, through products like the Walkman portable audio player, the compact disc (CD), Blu-ray, and the PlayStation game console.

3/n Image
Read 5 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Sep 4
Intel, the leading U.S. chip designer and manufacturer, missed multiple major technological opportunities.

Its recent pivot to contract manufacturing is heavily backed by the U.S. government.

Read the new publicly-available @bismarckanlys Brief:

1/n brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/the-attempt-…
Image
The vast majority of Intel's business is designing and manufacturing central processing units (CPUs) for personal computers and servers.

These are all based on Intel's proprietary x86 instruction set architecture, long giving Intel a global quasi-monopoly in PC CPUs.

2/n Image
Intel's leading position looked unassailable as late as the 2010s. But technological developments are now making Intel's products outmoded.

Smartphones run on ARM, not x86. Nvidia invented and dominates GPUs. Even Apple has switched off of x86 for its computers!

3/n Image
Read 5 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Sep 2
This remains one of the best essays on the practice of rationality. Warmly recommend reading it!

paulgraham.com/identity.html
Taking this essay seriously has only yielded benefits over the years. It is the main reason I've refused to join or identify with a movement for the last decade.

People who implore you to join one, point to the benefits of group strategies.
I think on the margin the benefits of group strategies are greatly exaggerated in our society.

I think we'd all be better off if we as took more effort as individuals and small teams, and less joining movements.

Those always end up in the wrong place anyway.
Read 4 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Aug 28
99% of smartphones and mobile devices rely on processors using the designs of one semiconductor company: Arm.

But the British firm, now owned by SoftBank, faces a long-term tradeoff between profits and viability.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief:

1/n brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/arms-long-te…
Image
Arm is a small company with a big role. It designs central processing units (CPUs) using the ARM instruction set architecture, patented intellectual property which it also widely licenses.

Over 280 billion chips have been shipped using ARM architectures.

2/n Image
ARM architectures are simpler and more power-efficient than their primary rival, Intel's x86 architectures.

As a result, Arm has powered the entire mobile computing revolution, and is now finally expanding into personal computers and servers. Macbooks have switched to ARM.

3/n Image
Read 5 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Aug 21
The storied U.S. defense firm Raytheon builds everything from long-range radar installations to guided missiles.

But today it is just one of a few distinct subsidiaries in a dead player's portfolio.

Read the new public @bismarckanlys Brief here:

1/🧵brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/raytheon-is-…
Since 2023, Raytheon is no longer an independent company, but a subsidiary of the newly-named RTX Corporation.

Raytheon is one of the company's three distinct "business units": aircraft components manufacturer Collins Aerospace, engine maker Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. Image
With 185,000 employees—70% of whom are in the U.S.—and a market capitalization over $150 billion, RTX ought to be one of the most dynamic and important industrial players in the U.S.

But in reality, RTX is not a mission-driven company at all, but a financial portfolio. Image
Read 16 tweets
Samo Burja Profile picture
Aug 14
The Google subsidiary Waymo has deployed self-driving taxis in multiple American cities.

Neither regulators nor hardware costs are likely to impede its slow but steady progress.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief:

1/n brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/google-leads…
Image
Waymo's technology relies on reference mapping and a suite of expensive sensors including lidar. This limits the vehicles' operational areas.

This is a contrast to, for example, Tesla's self-driving which focuses on mimicking human vision with machine learning on cameras.

2/n Image
But Waymo's approach suits its business model and ultimate vision: a society where most driving is done not by humans, but by computers.

Self-driving has long been favored by Google's cofounders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, and Google has no lack of funding for it.

3/n Image
Read 5 tweets

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