Incorrect.

"Japan lies beyond the effective reach of China’s A2/AD capabilities and could thus be supplied from its eastern ports."

foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/…
The Rhineland and Sudetenland are not core U.S. interests, this appears to be arguing. Image
Oooffff

"All that said, even if Chinese conventional capabilities did grow as a result of control over Taiwan, it wouldn’t matter as much; because the United States would no longer be committed to protecting Taiwan, the odds of a major war with China would drop precipitously."
I'd like several historical examples of times where major powers conceded a security commitment and the risk of war dropped precipitously. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, I'm saying I can't think of one.
This would not work:

"What would this policy look like in practice? The United States would make its revised position public, thereby laying the foundation to minimize pressure from foreign policy elites and the public to intervene if China attacked Taiwan."
This is a counterfactual. The problem is that we are the global super power and remain so. That's what makes the whole situation tricky.

"Retrenchment may not be getting the hearing it deserves because it clashes with the United States’ self-perception as the global superpower."
If we weren't the global superpower we could just shuffle the deck and reorder our commitments and continue to sell our wares and protect our shipping under the new Chinese regime. But we can't do that. We have this wolf by the ears.
This is an argument for Carthaginian security. Alas and alack, we are Rome.
If we are a mercantilist Seapower, chiefly concerned with markets for our goods and trade, we'd have no issue doing everything in this article and there would be no consequence. But that just ain't the house we built for ourselves.
I'm not one for questioning someone's patriotism or claiming they are in the pocket of Beijing for having a less confrontational position. But I feel a little like Frodo here: "I know what you would say. And it would seem like wisdom but for the warning in my heart.”
I don't think retrenchment makes war less likely. Rather it makes it more likely. And that the argument, as @Aelkus so eloquently put it, that he wants to make is an argument he doesn't want to make in public. If we all agree we want to avoid war, I think this is a dangerous path

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More from @DavidLarter

2 May
I do want to return to this question of PRC rationality @PeterDombrowsk6 because I don't trust that notion at all. People before the Iraq War likely thought "Well, the US is rational" but can you really make the argument fully now?
Taiwan is an emotionally charged issue. Can an issue be emotionally charged and fully rational?

Japan was probably considered rational before WWII, but was Pearl Harbor a rational move? It had it's own logic, but I'm not sure how rational it is.
*was.

And what even does rational mean? Who defines or sets the parameters of what is rational? When I say you are overcomplicating the issue, it's because I see too many people who assume they know what China sees as rational. I assume the opposite, I just go by what I see.
Read 7 tweets
2 May
This idea that we might barter away part of our position in the world to China in exchange for a Climate Change deal: I mean, either it's an existential threat to humanity (which, last I checked, would also impact China) or it isn't. It has nothing to do with anything else.
*Asteroid races toward earth*

QUICK! GIVE CHINA THE SENKAKUS SO THEY HELP US STOP THE ASTEROID!!!

Don't make no sense. Let's stop pretending it does.
Clarifying that nobody in the Administration has suggested anything like this, but it's a view at the fringes and was an worry expressed by some opposed to John Kerry's role as Climate Czar.
Read 4 tweets
1 May
I suspect Known Agenda's agenda is to win the Kentucky Derby.
Soup & Sandwich is gonna make me rich
Nvmd
Read 4 tweets
1 May
I know I complain and profess to hate politics and especially this era of dumb that we live in, but I was just catching up on the Gaetz case because it's a train wreck and ... wow. Image
Since sadly I think we'll never get to hear him say "Bond, James Bond," this will probably be the best line of his career.
By the way, James Bond DESPERATELY needs a rethink.

1) Daniel Craig hates this role.

2) The world is dark enough, I don't need my Bond to be moody right now.

3) Just start the whole franchise over again, update it, make it interesting, or just stop making the movies.
Read 4 tweets
1 May
I'd like a proper socialist/marxist read on Beauty & The Beast's song "Be Our Guest." Lines like "Life is so unnerving, for a servant whose not serving," cry out for dissection in a college sophomore term paper.
The whole idea that the labor force is sitting around waiting to serve the ruling elite reinforces classist ideals, portraying serving the ruling elites as a kind of raison d'etre for the proletariat
Can I write for Jacobin now?
Read 5 tweets
1 May
I don't know why I'm suffering through these mild, flu-like symptoms when locking myself away and never interacting with humanity again was a perfectly viable alternative to being vaccinated.
I would like to report that I feel very, very sorry for myself right now. I feel not terrible but just icky enough to not be having a great day.
Just feels like a touch of the flu. Headache, aches, a few chills. It feels a little like the day after you know you drank way too much, but you are thankful that the hangover isn't as bad as it could have been.
Read 4 tweets

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