Ready for another long and painful Twitter thread?

Here's an explanation as to why the similar statements made yesterday by Mr. Butts and Mr. Arthur are incorrect.

Let's go!

#COVID19 #Cdnpoli @RobynUrback
The thread could simply be a one word response.

Israel.

Israel is the real world data that shows how incredibly effective the Pfizer vaccine is in a country with a high number of infected people in the middle of a #COVID19 wave.

theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…
Israel's vaccination campaign put it's 1st shot into an arm December 6, 2020.

At the time of the 1st vaccination, Israel was at the beginning of another wave of COVID-19, and this one was going to be the mother of all waves.

#Cdnpoli #COVID19
The Israeli vaccination effort was swift and well received. It was a national effort.

Despite this, the number of cases kept rising...until they didn't.

#Cdnpoli #COVID19
Once Israel had achieved a 23.37% national vaccination rate, the cases started to drop, and they dropped sharply.

At this point in time, Canada had achieved a vaccination rate of only 1.08% with only first doses.

#Cdnpoli #Cdnhealth #COVID19
The start of the vaccination campaign in Israel coincided with the start of a new wave. This conveniently demonstrates that the time from the start of an aggressive campaign to the peak of a wave is approximately 5 weeks.
When we look at Canada and ask, how would those 5 weeks have impacted us, here's what we find.

As of December 6, we were in wave 2. It peaked just before January 13th.

We didn't enter wave 3 until March 19th.

#Cdnpoli #COVID19
If we apply the Israeli experience, vaccines would have had an impact on the 2nd wave and avoided the 3rd wave completely.

Since March 19th, when we would have expected to be out of the pandemic, Canada has lost as many as 57 people per day to the virus.

nationalpost.com/news/canada/co…
The data is freely available for anyone to access.

The vaccine's success and corresponding time table is also publicly available.

To suggest that Canada's 3rd wave could not have been prevented by vaccination is to ignore the data and deny the science.

#Cdnpoli #COVID19

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More from @DrJacobsRad

1 May
Are you ready for a long painful Twitter thread on vaccine strategies?

Let's start with these two conflicting headlines. One says delaying 2nd doses is dangerous. The other says that a 1st dose blitz is highly effective.

Ready for the kicker? Both are correct.
The data comes from Scotland. Both AstraZeneca and Pfizer were used in Scotland with a first dose whole population strategy.

The rate of death and hospitalization dropped dramatically.

Data also shows that efficacy of a single drops after 5 weeks.

ca.news.yahoo.com/scotlands-vacc…
But how much does the efficacy drop? On further review of the source data, I wasn't as impressed with the findings as stated in the article. Finding myself stuck, I went with my favorite go to solution and talked to an expert.

This is the world of the epidemiologist.
Read 8 tweets
25 Apr 20
In assessing Canada's response to COVID-19, we must do so in the context of the information available, past precedent, and adherence to best practices.

To begin with, the information available from China was of mixed quality.

1/6
calgaryherald.com/opinion/corbel…
While information such as the viral genetic sequence was freely shared, important data on mortality was not. This made it very difficult to fully assess risk. The explosion of COVID-19 in Italy brought the severity of the pandemic into focus.

2/6
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
Past precedent recommended against travel bans, but intelligence agencies and the NIH were already thinking that this situation was different.

Hajdu and Tam chose a divergent path from the USA and followed the WHO recommendations instead of the NIH.

3/6
cnsnews.com/article/intern…
Read 6 tweets
5 Apr 20
COVID-19 SO FAR: What have we done right, and where did we go wrong?

Patty Hajdu is now at the center of an editorial campaign to bolster her image. She desperately needs the help.

At the beginning of the crisis her response received an A+ rating.

1/8
#COVID19 #Cdnpoli
She followed the public health dogma and kept an air of calm, but there were already cracks in Team Trudeau's COVID-19 strategy.

Failure to prepare.
Failure at our borders
Failure at to trace and isolate
Failure to prevent travel
Failure to react to community spread

2/8
Failure to prepare.

It became very clear early in the outbreak that Canada lacked the necessary ventilators and personal protective equipment to cope with an outbreak on the level of Wuhan's crisis.

Existing expired stock has to this date not been tested and recertified.

3/8
Read 8 tweets

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