Did elections contribute to the COVID-19 surge? We are always tempted to say yes. I decided to do a comparison. Surprisingly, the graphs I obtained from election & non election states are near-identical. This suggests that the wave is a seasonal surge in a geographic region.
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The two images represent election states (where big outdoor gatherings occurred) on the right, and comparable non election states on the left. I have included two sets of pictures. The names of the states are on the graph. If you compare the timelines, it is near-identical.
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2/9
The question is whether the surge would have occurred anyway, by pattern, and maybe the large election rallies amplified it to an extent.
This virus behaves in a wave-like pattern in most nations. The reason for the steep upward slope is exponential increase.
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This virus behaves in a wave-like pattern in most nations. The reason for the steep upward slope is exponential increase.
3/9
Exponential curves are gentle at first, when numbers are small.
As they increase by geometric progression, the time taken for a large number to double is the same as for a small number to double.
Hence it turns steep after a long and gentle rise.
(See pics)
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As they increase by geometric progression, the time taken for a large number to double is the same as for a small number to double.
Hence it turns steep after a long and gentle rise.
(See pics)
4/9
As the surge breaks, the downtrend that follows also is exponential. That is an exponential DECLINE.
After the peak, the transmission apparently stops suddenly; the graph shows a steep downward slope (reason is unclear: definitely not “herd immunity”, weather or lockdown)
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After the peak, the transmission apparently stops suddenly; the graph shows a steep downward slope (reason is unclear: definitely not “herd immunity”, weather or lockdown)
5/9
The same pattern is seen in multiple nations and might reflect the behaviour of the virus in a region. Human intervention is not enough to explain the sudden drop, as not all nations have done the same measures such as “lockdowns”. See my graph below that compares 6 nations.
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6/9
I am writing this thread just to show that our understanding of repeating waves of the pandemic are far from perfect.
Why the virus only “hangs around” in a region only for about 3.5-4 months, and returns 2-3 times a year is a mystery.
7/9
Why the virus only “hangs around” in a region only for about 3.5-4 months, and returns 2-3 times a year is a mystery.
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Solving this mystery might give us the key to outwit the virus & the pandemic.
e.g. Do a swarm of viruses have an genetic activation key that turns itself off at a particular time point?
Do they reactivate themselves into hyper mode after a period of quiet endemic spread?
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e.g. Do a swarm of viruses have an genetic activation key that turns itself off at a particular time point?
Do they reactivate themselves into hyper mode after a period of quiet endemic spread?
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Finding solutions requires out-of-the-box thinking.
My instinct is that there is something very important about viral behaviour that we are missing altogether. It might be the elephant in the room.
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@PeterHotez @VirusesImmunity @doctorsoumya
@GKangInd @angie_rasmussen
My instinct is that there is something very important about viral behaviour that we are missing altogether. It might be the elephant in the room.
9/9
@PeterHotez @VirusesImmunity @doctorsoumya
@GKangInd @angie_rasmussen
Graphs obtained from covidindia. org
One can see that states like Maharashtra and Kerala (which have high numbers of overseas travel) have shown a sight endemic tendency between waves, the edge being rather jagged. Could be multiple separate introductions of the virus into the region, each with its own programming.
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