Did elections contribute to the COVID-19 surge? We are always tempted to say yes. I decided to do a comparison. Surprisingly, the graphs I obtained from election & non election states are near-identical. This suggests that the wave is a seasonal surge in a geographic region. 1/9
The two images represent election states (where big outdoor gatherings occurred) on the right, and comparable non election states on the left. I have included two sets of pictures. The names of the states are on the graph. If you compare the timelines, it is near-identical.
2/9
The question is whether the surge would have occurred anyway, by pattern, and maybe the large election rallies amplified it to an extent.
This virus behaves in a wave-like pattern in most nations. The reason for the steep upward slope is exponential increase.
3/9
Exponential curves are gentle at first, when numbers are small.
As they increase by geometric progression, the time taken for a large number to double is the same as for a small number to double.
Hence it turns steep after a long and gentle rise.
(See pics)
4/9
As the surge breaks, the downtrend that follows also is exponential. That is an exponential DECLINE.
After the peak, the transmission apparently stops suddenly; the graph shows a steep downward slope (reason is unclear: definitely not “herd immunity”, weather or lockdown)
5/9
The same pattern is seen in multiple nations and might reflect the behaviour of the virus in a region. Human intervention is not enough to explain the sudden drop, as not all nations have done the same measures such as “lockdowns”. See my graph below that compares 6 nations. 6/9
I am writing this thread just to show that our understanding of repeating waves of the pandemic are far from perfect.
Why the virus only “hangs around” in a region only for about 3.5-4 months, and returns 2-3 times a year is a mystery.
7/9
Solving this mystery might give us the key to outwit the virus & the pandemic.
e.g. Do a swarm of viruses have an genetic activation key that turns itself off at a particular time point?
Do they reactivate themselves into hyper mode after a period of quiet endemic spread?
8/9
One can see that states like Maharashtra and Kerala (which have high numbers of overseas travel) have shown a sight endemic tendency between waves, the edge being rather jagged. Could be multiple separate introductions of the virus into the region, each with its own programming.
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Defects in immune system at 10 months following COVID: research from Medical University Vienna
🔹Innate immunity diminished: ⬇️Natural Killer cells, neutrophils
🔹T cells, B cells diminished: ?Bone marrow effect
🔹TH1 to Th2 switch (shift towards allergic type of response)
1/5
They compared people who were initially infected (before vaccines) versus uninfected controls. See paper for profile at 10 weeks and 10 months
Anti N declined slower than Anti Spike (also noted by Sarah Beale from London recently among people with Long COVID)
2/
The decline pattern in antibodies was age dependent, younger people showed more steep decline
Those with Long COVID had inverted Ifn gamma/IL-4 ratio, shift from Th1 to Th2 immune response, linked with ‘diminished ability to fight intracellular infection’ and allergies.
3/
In healthy people over 60, just ten days of bed rest led to 1 kg muscle loss from the lower limbs.
Worse in people with illnesses.
In fact, there are very few real indications for “bed rest” now.
Exercise and early mobilisation is key.
1/6
Also called sarcopenia, this is a serious problem especially in the elderly, who might suffer an abrupt decline in their health as a result. Frailty creeps in, and once they lose their muscle/bone strength, falls and other complications occur.
Also affects younger people.
2/6
How to prevent muscle loss
1. Do not do bed rest unless absolutely indicated. It is often needlessly prescribed.
2. If rest is needed, one can do exercises while still lying in bed, preferably with expert help from a physiotherapist.
Lung 🫁 function declines long term - even after *mild* COVID.
Major Denmark study measured PFT before, 6 months after and 2 years later. They compared with uninfected people.
The speed of decline leveled off at 6 months, but failed to improve back to baseline. See graph.
1/4
The accelerated decline among patients slowed at the 6 month mark, and eventually followed the expected “normal” age related decline. But it did not return to baseline.
DL co increased past the 6 month mark, but the was no corresponding improvement in breathing difficulty.
2/
The timeframe of initial infection was March 2020-January 2021. This means the participants were unvaccinated at baseline.
1/3 were reinfected later. By then, they had been vaccinated.
(What is less clear is how they made sure the controls remained non-infected for 2 years)