Absolutely this and part of the reason why not simply Brexit itself but the Brexit mentality of winner takes all is a disaster for the United Kingdom.
Unless there’s a dramatic course change Scotland will (at some point) vote for independence. Why? Because voters will balance the undeniable risks of independence against having no say in their future. As Brexit has demonstrated.
In the current circumstance, the certainty of no additional capacity for self determination (indeed, self determination being reduced) will lead to a discounting of the risks of independence and a yes vote.
It’s Brexit to the nth degree. Not only are the risks of leaving substantially higher but so are the perceived risks of staying.

It is, I think, a very obvious equation. And all the additional cash offers and culture war rhetoric just make it even worse.
This is so obvious it’s astonishing that it’s not better understood. This is also one of the principal reasons why I expect the current PM, who seems completely incapable of understanding these vey simple dynamics, will not be in office for very much longer.
Advocates of not just Brexit but this very hard Brexit should be under no illusions that they have materially increased the probability of the break up of the United Kingdom.

Was it worth it?

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More from @Sime0nStylites

3 May
More Parisian than the Eiffel Tower.
More French than a croissant.
Read 6 tweets
1 May
In view of the deliberate and shameful depreciation of humanities subjects people might find this interesting. thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publishing/mem…
I am, it’s fair to say, a little biased. I have a BA in history (mainly early medieval), a MSc in international relations (focused on finance) and In currently working on a MA in creative writing (dissertation of contemporary poetry).
The MSc was (a bit) career focused. The others were / are not. So what was the point of the medieval history or the contemporary poetry? Did they have any vocational value?
Read 11 tweets
29 Apr
Tectonically late to this but BUY

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Ae…
I’m not sure what it is. Extreme folk? Radical rock? MBV after a very late night in an Irish pub? But wowsers.
Read 4 tweets
27 Apr
We can safely say this isn’t centrist hair.
A strange mix of weary elven lord confronting the dawn of the age of man, elderly central european footballer competing for one last management job, Star Trek cosplay afficionado, and the guy in the pub with an acoustic guitar.
And yet.
Read 7 tweets
18 Apr
This is a v useful and fascinating tool for discovering vaccine availability in France. You can also search by département - eg Paris had 131 doses available.
For perspective, 40k is c 10% of total daily doses (excluding Sundays).
Which sounds pretty respectable to me.
Read 6 tweets
17 Apr
Reminds me of my much loved Brexit Impossibility Theorem which fell by the wayside when Johnson felled the DUP by the wayside. The moral of the story / theorem...
.... is that if you are absolutely committed to ‘sovereignty’ and ‘independence’ and if you can achieve a democratic mandate (no matter how unspecific), then when the impossible part of the theorem is encountered there is a logic to moving in a radical direction...
My point (!) is that impossibility theories are meant to show that the forced choices are so unpalatable as to be impossible. And yet Brexit demonstrates that even the most unpalatable choices can be palatable (even attractive) in the right political situation.
Read 5 tweets

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